Predicting 2021 Sack Totals

Predicting 2021 Sack Totals

Many of you know by now, everything we do at FPS is rooted in finding data that can help predict outcomes, THAT THE MARKET DOES NOT account for already. Frankly, if you're wagering any other way you're simply counting on luck. With that said, one of our favorite themes is to look at "matchup based … Continue reading Predicting 2021 Sack Totals

NFL 2021 Team Identity Changes due to OC/DC Carousel

NFL 2021 Team Identity Changes due to OC/DC Carousel

As we covered in the NFL Offensive Identities and Defensive Identities each team is unique in their own way, yet rarely covered correctly by traditional media. Given the value in knowing such info, as promised, we have a breakdown below of EXPECTED team identity changes given OC and DC changes. Below is a breakdown of … Continue reading NFL 2021 Team Identity Changes due to OC/DC Carousel

2020 NFL Coverage Elasticity Part II

2020 NFL Coverage Elasticity Part II

What Offenses saw the biggest disparities from defenses in 2020 (vs. expectation)  Continuing from last week’s Coverage Elasticity to further investigate defensive coverage tendencies we will “flip the script” and look at the data from the offensive lens. Today we will look at which offenses saw the biggest disparities from what the NFL-wide typical defensive … Continue reading 2020 NFL Coverage Elasticity Part II

2020 NFL Coverage Elasticity

2020 NFL Coverage Elasticity

NFL 2020 Defensive Deployment FootballPredictionSystems knows the value of understanding a defense’s coverage tendency, and the corresponding expected QB performance vs. said coverage. FPS leverages this information to profit greatly from finding value in the prop/derivative market (remember the +1100 we advised for Aaron Rodgers during the playoffs) that most books don’t account for.  However, … Continue reading 2020 NFL Coverage Elasticity