We hope everyone used our projection system to cash in on the 11:1 payout for Rogers having the largest yardage performance this past week (as we did). Note, again, since both teams have played each other this year (oddly both in week 6), we adjusted the defensive coverage projection at half weight their yearly deployment … Continue reading QB vs. Coverage Championship Round
Only 6 games, but there are a few clear disparities this week. Remember the first set of coverages are season long deployment averages by the respective defense. The second set pertains to the team's QB, and the numbers represent a QB's success RELATIVE to their average. In other words, the way to interpret the numbers … Continue reading QB vs Coverage Divisional Round
With all the "QB substitutions" among the teams resting starters/etc. we gave pause to using this model for predictive forecasting. However, given this relatively drastic alteration of what the sportsbooks use to set lines, we think there likely is greater (not lesser) opportunity this week, particularly in QB props using the QB by Coverage Model. … Continue reading NFL QB vs Coverage Week 17
QB by coverage updated to this week. We adjusted the scales to make the MARGINAL rates more relevant to the model. Otherwise we are very confident in this ASPECT to the model. Also play DEN/LAC Under (will explain when full model is released).
We need to wait for practice injury reports to release the full slate of selections, but below are the match-ups (NOT included in the objective model) to help us identify QBs mismatches. As a reminder the first set of columns indicate how frequently a team uses the respective coverage. The second set is a QB's … Continue reading NFL QB vs. Coverage Week 15 Model