QB vs. Coverage Championship Round

We hope everyone used our projection system to cash in on the 11:1 payout for Rogers having the largest yardage performance this past week (as we did). Note, again, since both teams have played each other this year (oddly both in week 6), we adjusted the defensive coverage projection at half weight their yearly deployment … Continue reading QB vs. Coverage Championship Round

QB vs Coverage Divisional Round

Only 6 games, but there are a few clear disparities this week. Remember the first set of coverages are season long deployment averages by the respective defense. The second set pertains to the team's QB, and the numbers represent a QB's success RELATIVE to their average. In other words, the way to interpret the numbers … Continue reading QB vs Coverage Divisional Round

NFL QB vs Coverage Week 17

With all the "QB substitutions" among the teams resting starters/etc. we gave pause to using this model for predictive forecasting. However, given this relatively drastic alteration of what the sportsbooks use to set lines, we think there likely is greater (not lesser) opportunity this week, particularly in QB props using the QB by Coverage Model. … Continue reading NFL QB vs Coverage Week 17

NFL QB vs. Coverage Week 15 Model

We need to wait for practice injury reports to release the full slate of selections, but below are the match-ups (NOT included in the objective model) to help us identify QBs mismatches. As a reminder the first set of columns indicate how frequently a team uses the respective coverage. The second set is a QB's … Continue reading NFL QB vs. Coverage Week 15 Model

NFL QB vs. Coverage Week 14 Model

We are testing what we call the "Mayfield/Goff Adjustment" this week: adding a multiplier for QBs most sensitive to the pressure, relative to opponent's BLITZ (not pressure rate, on purpose). This, along with the product are the two columns to the right. Again players in yellow are either questionable and/or low volume, so take them … Continue reading NFL QB vs. Coverage Week 14 Model

QB v Opponent Coverage Model – Week 13

Last week, despite multiple surprises at the QB position, we released our QB v Opponent Coverage Model. This model, although not included in our weekly aggregate model (yet), helps predict QB outcomes for the week by stratifying QB success by coverage and comparing it to their opponents likelihood to play x coverage. Below you will … Continue reading QB v Opponent Coverage Model – Week 13

2020 OC Changes and their Impact on Fantasy Football

Below you will find any/all changes made this offseason for play calling OCs. Additionally, based on truly neutral game scripts we investigated how (if at all) things may change with their new teams, especially in True Run vs Pass rates. TmCoachPrev. OC Tm.sNeutral Prev Tm.s Tend.What to glean from playcaller's previous tendencies (using neutral game … Continue reading 2020 OC Changes and their Impact on Fantasy Football

True Target Distribution from 2019

Target Distribution by position isn't new. However, Game situation has a large affect on targets. Meaning, to have a higher level of predictability, teasing out game situations and looking at the target ratios will help give us a clearer picture of where teams like to distribute targets, Below you will find what happened last year, … Continue reading True Target Distribution from 2019