A home-run is easier to hit over a 380 ft. wall than a 400 ft. wall. A jump shot made wide-open vs. a contested shot is far more likely to succeed. Running the football in the NFL effectively is easier when there are less would-be-tacklers close to the line of scrimmage. Because of this, today … Continue reading 2020 RB Success Rate by Box Size
Tom Brady, likely pumped full of osteoarthritis medicine, led the 3-point underdog Tampa Bay Buccaneers to a Super Bowl Victory yesterday. However, the game was won by the absolute clinic put on by Todd Bowles and the Buccaneers defense put on last night. Holding Mahomes to single digit points for the first time since...ever? Seriously, … Continue reading How Tampa Bay shut down Mahomes in Super Bowl LV
Flipping the Run/Play-Action Success Question on it's head. A friend of mine asked my opinion as to why the Steelers run game has fallen off the last two years. Knowing last year was most likely due to the loaded boxes (as described in the Football Outsiders Almanac) defenses lined-up with Big Ben, I focused mainly … Continue reading Does the lack of Play-Action(PA) PASSING, lead to a decrease in RUN success?
Who’s the NFL’s best Slugger? In baseball statistics, slugging percentage is a measure of the productivity of a hitter, weighting extra-base hits to more accurately portray a batter’s value in base hits. In football, up until only recently, sacks were the only statistic that measured a pass rusher’s production. Since many companies, like SIS, have … Continue reading Pass Rushing Slugging Percentage
Metrics like Expected Points Added (EPA) can tell us how well a player is performing in a game, season, etc. But what about how consistent a player is? For anyone that needs to take a predictive or forward-looking view on performance, how consistent a player is, may be just as important as base performance. Being … Continue reading Who is the Most Consistent QB in 2020?
A Look into Coach’s Statistical Impact The outcome of football games are determined by manly things: team skill, play execution and referee interaction to name a few. Yet, if we judged this by the amount of fans yelling at their screen, it’d be fair to think coach play-calling and scheme also play a large part … Continue reading 2019 NFL OC Analytics Scorecard (Retro)
Week 12 worked out quite well. As we have been, and will be, we will let our numbers (for the most part) do the writing for us. We are still planning to provide a deep dive on weights/how we got to this variables, but for now you can find a simple breakdown of the numbers … Continue reading NFL Week 13 Picks
What the FPS Model says about Week 12 in the NFL For the past 6 years we have been fine tuning a week-to-week model that accurately predicts NFL outcomes at a profitable level. Although we call this FPS 2.0, it may as well be called version 1,294. Our hope is do do a deep dive … Continue reading NFL Week 12 Picks
Top 10 Reasons the 2018 Bears are the 2015 CubsAm I saying the Bears are winning the Super Bowl next year? Read on...There have been far too little comparisons between the 2015 Chicago Cubs and 2018 Chicago Bears. A wrong I intend to fix in this article. For our longtime readers, or anyone that can see … Continue reading Top 10 Reasons the 2018 Bears are the 2015 Cubs
2019 NFL Teams on the Rise/FallThe NFL is filled with parity, "Any Given Sunday" is very much a reality in the league. This is even more evident when zooming out to a season-to-season lens. Dramatic turnarounds are not uncommon from one year to the next: bottom feeders from the year before winning their division, teams … Continue reading 2019 NFL Teams on the Rise/Fall