2020 NFL Predictions
Here we are again! A full-season’s worth of data, to help us predict the 2020 NFL season. Last year’s 2019 NFL Teams on the Rise/Fall performed very well with Baltimore ranked #1 in “Going Up”, Kansas City/San Francisco in the top 7, and Dallas/Rams, 1/2 respectively in the “Going Down” column. The goal from our annual … Continue reading 2020 NFL Predictions
Top 5 Quick NFL Team Fixes brought you you by SIS Rookie Handbook
The 2020 SIS Football Rookie Handbook, only two years in its existence, has immediately become a yearly “must-order” along with the Football Outsiders Almanac for any analytics junkies. Most of the 518 pages of Advanced Statistics goodness is dedicated to the incoming Rookie Class, but it also includes short sections breaking down every team and its … Continue reading Top 5 Quick NFL Team Fixes brought you you by SIS Rookie Handbook
First Half Angle for 2020 NFL
I just finished reading The Logic of Sports Betting, and one of central themes was this concept of finding markets that haven’t been “picked through” or even derivatives (first half ATS, etc). That is, not playing big markets that haven’t been bet up/down early on (ATS NFL at big books, etc), and have been priced … Continue reading First Half Angle for 2020 NFL
Rethinking NFL Home Field Advantage Part II
As noted earlier in Rethinking NFL Home Field Advantage Part I, Home Field Advantage (HFA) been proven to be MOST directly a function of referees being human. And although Vegas still prices HFA based on stadium, instead of humans, there is a clear opportunity to find market value there. With that being said, if we … Continue reading Rethinking NFL Home Field Advantage Part II
Rethinking NFL Home Field Advantage Part I
NFL Home Field Advantage by Referee As many have learned through our studies and advanced analytics, home field advantage (HFA) exists in all sports, but is largely due to referees and their (subliminal) human nature. You can learn about this phenomenon in detail on the podcast about Home Field Advantage by Freakonomics. With that being … Continue reading Rethinking NFL Home Field Advantage Part I
How Kevin Durant Changed Sports Forever
If you missed the NBA Finals last night, Superstar Kevin Durant made the decision to play through an injury that’s held him out of a the past few weeks. Since Durant’s team, the Golden State Warriors, were facing elimination in the Championship, and possibly to quiet criticism that he is a “soft player”, Durant put … Continue reading How Kevin Durant Changed Sports Forever
Top 10 Reasons the 2018 Bears are the 2015 Cubs
Top 10 Reasons the 2018 Bears are the 2015 Cubs Am I saying the Bears are winning the Super Bowl next year? Read on… There have been far too little comparisons between the 2015 Chicago Cubs and 2018 Chicago Bears. A wrong I intend to fix in this article. For our longtime readers, or anyone that … Continue reading Top 10 Reasons the 2018 Bears are the 2015 Cubs
2019 NFL Teams on the Rise/Fall
2019 NFL Teams on the Rise/FallThe NFL is filled with parity, “Any Given Sunday” is very much a reality in the league. This is even more evident when zooming out to a season-to-season lens. Dramatic turnarounds are not uncommon from one year to the next: bottom feeders from the year before winning their division, teams … Continue reading 2019 NFL Teams on the Rise/Fall
NFL “Premiere” Standings
NFL “Premiere” Standings As I watched the Bears beat the Rams last night, I thought about how many premiere matchups the NFL has had this year. The Chiefs at the Rams, Bears at the Patriots, Chargers at the Steelers, and so on…I wondered, if as a subset of your record, how have these teams collectively and … Continue reading NFL “Premiere” Standings
2018 NFL Predictions
2018 NFL Predictions You likely remember from last year the 2017 NFL Predictions. There I used 3 key, objective predictive metrics to help us know which teams are rising and falling in the upcoming year. The 3 key areas we look at to statistically: Net Close Wins/Losses (avid readers have seen this before in NHL NCW/Ls and NBA NCW/Ls) Pythagorean … Continue reading 2018 NFL Predictions
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