(Almost) Sure NFL bet Part III
I stumbled across a (new?) betting option that DraftKings (at least) is offering. Set same game parlays. They call them “Moneyline/Total” or “Spread/Total”. The premise is simple. instead of betting on one team, lets say on the moneyline, you ALSO bet on a team winning, PLUS the Over/Under within the same bet (and get a … Continue reading (Almost) Sure NFL bet Part III
2020 True Pass Rushing Pressure Rate
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Pressures by Alignment
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Why North Carolina is the “Best Bet” for National Champion in 2021
College football is seen as less predictive than its professional counterpart, primarily due to the constant turnover from seniors to incoming first-year students. And there was a time that predicting a national champion was a bit of a crapshoot. Heck, look at how well unranked preseason teams fared from 1981-1990, with 3.5 national championships in … Continue reading Why North Carolina is the “Best Bet” for National Champion in 2021
(2nd Almost) Guaranteed Profitable Bet for 2021 NFL
Knowing that FPS is drawn to profitability, we have another solid play (click here if you missed An Almost For Sure Futures Bet) that is almost guaranteed to profit, possibly middle for the 2021 NFL Season. And it really has nothing to do with predicting the outcome of a game: Seattle is currently a +115 … Continue reading (2nd Almost) Guaranteed Profitable Bet for 2021 NFL
Predicting 2021 Sack Totals
Many of you know by now, everything we do at FPS is rooted in finding data that can help predict outcomes, THAT THE MARKET DOES NOT account for already. Frankly, if you’re wagering any other way you’re simply counting on luck. With that said, one of our favorite themes is to look at “matchup based … Continue reading Predicting 2021 Sack Totals
An (Almost) For Sure Futures Bet
Middling and detached parlays have been a typical tool deployed by serious bettors for some time. They help balance risk, and maximize their portion of EV bets. Typically, we see these opportunities in-season, when a particular game’s line moves significantly during the week. However, the offseason can be ripe with these opportunities if you know … Continue reading An (Almost) For Sure Futures Bet
NFL 2021 Team Identity Changes due to OC/DC Carousel
As we covered in the NFL Offensive Identities and Defensive Identities each team is unique in their own way, yet rarely covered correctly by traditional media. Given the value in knowing such info, as promised, we have a breakdown below of EXPECTED team identity changes given OC and DC changes. Below is a breakdown of … Continue reading NFL 2021 Team Identity Changes due to OC/DC Carousel
2020 NFL Coverage Elasticity Part II
What Offenses saw the biggest disparities from defenses in 2020 (vs. expectation) Continuing from last week’s Coverage Elasticity to further investigate defensive coverage tendencies we will “flip the script” and look at the data from the offensive lens. Today we will look at which offenses saw the biggest disparities from what the NFL-wide typical defensive … Continue reading 2020 NFL Coverage Elasticity Part II
2020 NFL Coverage Elasticity
NFL 2020 Defensive Deployment FootballPredictionSystems knows the value of understanding a defense’s coverage tendency, and the corresponding expected QB performance vs. said coverage. FPS leverages this information to profit greatly from finding value in the prop/derivative market (remember the +1100 we advised for Aaron Rodgers during the playoffs) that most books don’t account for. However, … Continue reading 2020 NFL Coverage Elasticity
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