Last Year’s Sacks don’t predict Next Year’s Sacks
But Hurries do It’s been a few years since the analytics community taught us sacks shouldn’t be the “end all, be all” metric for pass rushers. Yet many still fall for the trap. Even NFL teams, and their GMs, those who are paid (alot and solely) to select good players for their team, continue to … Continue reading Last Year’s Sacks don’t predict Next Year’s Sacks
AFC/NFC Championship Futures
Betting on football, especially the NFL comes with distinct advantages/disadvantages. On the “negative side”, with 22 humans on the field on any given play, the amount of chaos leads to variance very few other sports see (when looking through the lens of a sports bettor). However, on the plus side, because of this high level … Continue reading AFC/NFC Championship Futures
NBA MVP Best Bet
NOT FOOTBALL PART DEUX…FPS subscribers get a sneak peak of my NBA piece on Fantasy Pros. Enjoy, and bet well… With every selection, or betting exposure I advise, we focus on one thing: profit. With that being said, whether through data or procedure I’ve found it best to start out “reverse engineering the problem”. What’s … Continue reading NBA MVP Best Bet
MLB MVP Futures Prediction System
A special baseball post by request… The MLB awards both an NL and AL MVP every season. The MVPs are determined by the Baseball Writers’ Association of America (BWAA) The actual voting takes place just before the MLB postseason, yet results are not announced until after the World Series. There are plenty of write ups … Continue reading MLB MVP Futures Prediction System
2020 NFL Pass Coverage Analysis
Throughout the season we used opponent’s coverage use and success relative to their opponent’s QB success within the same guidelines to help us predict outcomes the market did not account for. Today we’re doing a deep dive on NFL Pass Coverage, to help understand what defenses use, what they do well and where they can … Continue reading 2020 NFL Pass Coverage Analysis
How Tampa Bay shut down Mahomes in Super Bowl LV
Tom Brady, likely pumped full of osteoarthritis medicine, led the 3-point underdog Tampa Bay Buccaneers to a Super Bowl Victory yesterday. However, the game was won by the absolute clinic put on by Todd Bowles and the Buccaneers defense put on last night. Holding Mahomes to single digit points for the first time since…ever? Seriously, … Continue reading How Tampa Bay shut down Mahomes in Super Bowl LV
Does the lack of Play-Action(PA) PASSING, lead to a decrease in RUN success?
Flipping the Run/Play-Action Success Question on it’s head. A friend of mine asked my opinion as to why the Steelers run game has fallen off the last two years. Knowing last year was most likely due to the loaded boxes (as described in the Football Outsiders Almanac) defenses lined-up with Big Ben, I focused mainly … Continue reading Does the lack of Play-Action(PA) PASSING, lead to a decrease in RUN success?
Super Bowl Pick and Props to Target
No one. Sharp bettors will stay away, and so should you. Sharp bettors care about one thing: profit, not betting for the sake of it, or betting because its the Super Bowl. All of our models are confounded, which means, this is officially a NO PLAY. We will sit back and collect our TB NFL … Continue reading Super Bowl Pick and Props to Target
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