Throughout the season we used opponent’s coverage use and success relative to their opponent’s QB success within the same guidelines to help us predict outcomes the market did not account for. Today we’re doing a deep dive on NFL Pass Coverage, to help understand what defenses use, what they do well and where they can … Continue reading 2020 NFL Pass Coverage Analysis
Tom Brady, likely pumped full of osteoarthritis medicine, led the 3-point underdog Tampa Bay Buccaneers to a Super Bowl Victory yesterday. However, the game was won by the absolute clinic put on by Todd Bowles and the Buccaneers defense put on last night. Holding Mahomes to single digit points for the first time since…ever? Seriously, … Continue reading How Tampa Bay shut down Mahomes in Super Bowl LV
Flipping the Run/Play-Action Success Question on it’s head. A friend of mine asked my opinion as to why the Steelers run game has fallen off the last two years. Knowing last year was most likely due to the loaded boxes (as described in the Football Outsiders Almanac) defenses lined-up with Big Ben, I focused mainly … Continue reading Does the lack of Play-Action(PA) PASSING, lead to a decrease in RUN success?
No one. Sharp bettors will stay away, and so should you. Sharp bettors care about one thing: profit, not betting for the sake of it, or betting because its the Super Bowl. All of our models are confounded, which means, this is officially a NO PLAY. We will sit back and collect our TB NFL … Continue reading Super Bowl Pick and Props to Target
Metrics like Expected Points Added (EPA) can tell us how well a player is performing in a game, season, etc. But what about how consistent a player is? For anyone that needs to take a predictive or forward-looking view on performance, how consistent a player is, may be just as important as base performance. Being … Continue reading Who is the Most Consistent QB in 2020?
A Look into Coach’s Statistical Impact The outcome of football games are determined by manly things: team skill, play execution and referee interaction to name a few. Yet, if we judged this by the amount of fans yelling at their screen, it’d be fair to think coach play-calling and scheme also play a large part … Continue reading 2019 NFL OC Analytics Scorecard (Retro)
A Look into OC’s performance using Advanced Stats “Advanced Stats” or “Analytics” in football have helped us understand what determines game outcomes. We know certain strategic tendencies correlate heavily to winning football games. Many of these are still being debated, or even discovered but there are a few “gimmies” or clearly established protocols, such as … Continue reading 2020 NFL Offensive Analytics Scorecard
…IF YOU’RE GOING TO PLAY A PARLAY Smart, and profitable bettors know that parlays are a bad play. True, they’re alluring, and offer insane payouts, but the math has told us for a long time, they are “sucker bets”. Be it the lottery or any Casino, the entire gambling industry is built on the fact. … Continue reading Why 3 Team Parlays are Best
After a great start to the playoffs our main system is calling for 3 obvious picks (shared selections from our base model, DVOA variance model and even our playoff model) and one mixed: the TB upset of NO. Overall we are not very confident at any of the pricings, but there is plenty of value … Continue reading NFL Divisional Round Picks
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