Sports Betting

(Almost) Sure NFL bet Part III

I stumbled across a (new?) betting option that DraftKings (at least) is offering. Set same game parlays. They call them “Moneyline/Total” or “Spread/Total”. The premise is simple. instead of betting on one team, lets say on the moneyline, you ALSO bet on a team winning, PLUS the Over/Under within the same bet (and get a … Continue reading (Almost) Sure NFL bet Part III

Why North Carolina is the “Best Bet” for National Champion in 2021

College football is seen as less predictive than its professional counterpart, primarily due to the constant turnover from seniors to incoming first-year students. And there was a time that predicting a national champion was a bit of a crapshoot. Heck, look at how well unranked preseason teams fared from 1981-1990, with 3.5 national championships in … Continue reading Why North Carolina is the “Best Bet” for National Champion in 2021

(2nd Almost) Guaranteed Profitable Bet for 2021 NFL

(2nd Almost) Guaranteed Profitable Bet for 2021 NFL

Knowing that FPS is drawn to profitability, we have another solid play (click here if you missed An Almost For Sure Futures Bet) that is almost guaranteed to profit, possibly middle for the 2021 NFL Season. And it really has nothing to do with predicting the outcome of a game: Seattle is currently a +115 … Continue reading (2nd Almost) Guaranteed Profitable Bet for 2021 NFL

An (Almost) For Sure Futures Bet

An (Almost) For Sure Futures Bet

Middling and detached parlays have been a typical tool deployed by serious bettors for some time. They help balance risk, and maximize their portion of EV bets. Typically, we see these opportunities in-season, when a particular game’s line moves significantly during the week. However, the offseason can be ripe with these opportunities if you know … Continue reading An (Almost) For Sure Futures Bet

NFL 2021 Team Identity Changes due to OC/DC Carousel

NFL 2021 Team Identity Changes due to OC/DC Carousel

As we covered in the NFL Offensive Identities and Defensive Identities each team is unique in their own way, yet rarely covered correctly by traditional media. Given the value in knowing such info, as promised, we have a breakdown below of EXPECTED team identity changes given OC and DC changes. Below is a breakdown of … Continue reading NFL 2021 Team Identity Changes due to OC/DC Carousel

2020 NFL Coverage Elasticity Part II

2020 NFL Coverage Elasticity Part II

What Offenses saw the biggest disparities from defenses in 2020 (vs. expectation)  Continuing from last week’s Coverage Elasticity to further investigate defensive coverage tendencies we will “flip the script” and look at the data from the offensive lens. Today we will look at which offenses saw the biggest disparities from what the NFL-wide typical defensive … Continue reading 2020 NFL Coverage Elasticity Part II

2020 NFL Coverage Elasticity

2020 NFL Coverage Elasticity

NFL 2020 Defensive Deployment FootballPredictionSystems knows the value of understanding a defense’s coverage tendency, and the corresponding expected QB performance vs. said coverage. FPS leverages this information to profit greatly from finding value in the prop/derivative market (remember the +1100 we advised for Aaron Rodgers during the playoffs) that most books don’t account for.  However, … Continue reading 2020 NFL Coverage Elasticity

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