By now you know that FPS leverages “Matchup-Based” variables to derive value in both props and fantasy markets. If you are familiar with our work in Coverage Elasticity, we dove into a similar breakdown before (from another lens). Given that, we thought it would be interesting to see what TE/WRs last season performed best vs … Continue reading What WR hated Man Coverage the most in 2020?
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Back in 2017, we recognized an interesting new way to leverage the the “RB Handcuff” tactic, among multiple teams. In 2017 Ezekiel Elliot was suspended for the first 6 games, opening up an opportunity for an “above average RB” Darren McFadden to gain some serious points behind the best run-blocking OL at the time. Coincidingly, … Continue reading The Justin Fields QB Handcuff
As we covered in the NFL Offensive Identities and Defensive Identities each team is unique in their own way, yet rarely covered correctly by traditional media. Given the value in knowing such info, as promised, we have a breakdown below of EXPECTED team identity changes given OC and DC changes. Below is a breakdown of … Continue reading NFL 2021 Team Identity Changes due to OC/DC Carousel
What Offenses saw the biggest disparities from defenses in 2020 (vs. expectation) Continuing from last week’s Coverage Elasticity to further investigate defensive coverage tendencies we will “flip the script” and look at the data from the offensive lens. Today we will look at which offenses saw the biggest disparities from what the NFL-wide typical defensive … Continue reading 2020 NFL Coverage Elasticity Part II
NFL 2020 Defensive Deployment FootballPredictionSystems knows the value of understanding a defense’s coverage tendency, and the corresponding expected QB performance vs. said coverage. FPS leverages this information to profit greatly from finding value in the prop/derivative market (remember the +1100 we advised for Aaron Rodgers during the playoffs) that most books don’t account for. However, … Continue reading 2020 NFL Coverage Elasticity
Continuing on last week’s series NFL Team Identities, Offense, today we bring you the counterpart to the to last week’s post: Team Defense Identity. Again, the purpose here is to give those serious about the game a true lens to view what a team’s strategy actually is. Please refer to last week’s article for key … Continue reading NFL Team Identities, Defense
FPS is continuing our series on comparing a player’s volume weighted production in fantasy football vs real football (using analytics based scoring, DVOA from Football Outsiders) with the most intriguing group: WRs. As you may have expected since so many fantasy WR stars don’t tend to match with the eye test, this position group is … Continue reading 2020 WR Fantasy vs Reality Rankings
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