Fantasy Football

Clyde Edwards-Helaire is this year's fantasy breakout

Clyde Edwards-Helaire is this year’s fantasy breakout

We are knee deep in draft season. And although we have plenty of more in-depth analysis, we wanted to take a minute to break down/sum up why we are encouraging all of our readers to draft Clyde Edwards Helaire (CEH). Lest we forget what we thought of CEH coming out of LSU, and being supplanted … Continue reading Clyde Edwards-Helaire is this year’s fantasy breakout

The Justin Fields QB Handcuff

Back in 2017, we recognized an interesting new way to leverage the the “RB Handcuff” tactic, among multiple teams. In 2017 Ezekiel Elliot was suspended for the first 6 games, opening up an opportunity for an “above average RB” Darren McFadden to gain some serious points behind the best run-blocking OL at the time. Coincidingly, … Continue reading The Justin Fields QB Handcuff

QB vs. Coverage Championship Round

We hope everyone used our projection system to cash in on the 11:1 payout for Rogers having the largest yardage performance this past week (as we did). Note, again, since both teams have played each other this year (oddly both in week 6), we adjusted the defensive coverage projection at half weight their yearly deployment … Continue reading QB vs. Coverage Championship Round

QB vs Coverage Divisional Round

Only 6 games, but there are a few clear disparities this week. Remember the first set of coverages are season long deployment averages by the respective defense. The second set pertains to the team’s QB, and the numbers represent a QB’s success RELATIVE to their average. In other words, the way to interpret the numbers … Continue reading QB vs Coverage Divisional Round

NFL QB vs Coverage Week 17

With all the “QB substitutions” among the teams resting starters/etc. we gave pause to using this model for predictive forecasting. However, given this relatively drastic alteration of what the sportsbooks use to set lines, we think there likely is greater (not lesser) opportunity this week, particularly in QB props using the QB by Coverage Model. … Continue reading NFL QB vs Coverage Week 17

NFL QB vs. Coverage Week 16 Model

QB by coverage updated to this week. We adjusted the scales to make the MARGINAL rates more relevant to the model. Otherwise we are very confident in this ASPECT to the model. Also play DEN/LAC Under (will explain when full model is released).

NFL QB vs. Coverage Week 15 Model

We need to wait for practice injury reports to release the full slate of selections, but below are the match-ups (NOT included in the objective model) to help us identify QBs mismatches. As a reminder the first set of columns indicate how frequently a team uses the respective coverage. The second set is a QB’s … Continue reading NFL QB vs. Coverage Week 15 Model

NFL QB vs. Coverage Week 14 Model

We are testing what we call the “Mayfield/Goff Adjustment” this week: adding a multiplier for QBs most sensitive to the pressure, relative to opponent’s BLITZ (not pressure rate, on purpose). This, along with the product are the two columns to the right. Again players in yellow are either questionable and/or low volume, so take them … Continue reading NFL QB vs. Coverage Week 14 Model

QB v Opponent Coverage Model – Week 13

Last week, despite multiple surprises at the QB position, we released our QB v Opponent Coverage Model. This model, although not included in our weekly aggregate model (yet), helps predict QB outcomes for the week by stratifying QB success by coverage and comparing it to their opponents likelihood to play x coverage. Below you will … Continue reading QB v Opponent Coverage Model – Week 13

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