Finishing up on our Fantasy vs Reality series for the 2020 NFL Season we present TEs this week. We have prefaced the rankings enough in the previous week’s pieces, so we’ll jump right into it. Thanks again to Football Outsiders for all the DVOA data. The chart below displays all relevant TEs, coordinated by their … Continue reading 2020 TE Fantasy vs Reality Rankings
FPS is continuing our series on comparing a player’s volume weighted production in fantasy football vs real football (using analytics based scoring, DVOA from Football Outsiders) with the most intriguing group: WRs. As you may have expected since so many fantasy WR stars don’t tend to match with the eye test, this position group is … Continue reading 2020 WR Fantasy vs Reality Rankings
Following last week’s RBs Fantasy vs Reality Rankings, we are continuing the series moving to QBs this week. The idea behind the series is to shine a light, attempt for attempt, as to what QBs have the biggest difference between fantasy and real impact defined by Fantasy Points/Attempt and Passing DVOA. The chart below is … Continue reading 2020 QB Fantasy vs Reality Rankings
Fantasy performance and actual performance (measured as a player’s personal contribution to a team’s likelihood of winning) are very different measurements. Although most players at the extremes will have mirrored rankings, there are plenty of examples where fantasy performance of an individual may enforce misinterpretation of a player’s REAL value, and vice versa. This piece … Continue reading 2020 RB Fantasy vs Reality Rankings
Modern analytics and advanced stats have helped us understand and evaluate the Running Back (RB) position much better than with traditional stats alone. Metrics like Football Outsiders’ Adjusted Line, Open Field and Breakaway Yards are great examples, especially when trying to isolate the responsibility given to a RB vs an OL. Others that hone in … Continue reading 2020 RB Yardage Ownership
Found in the Sports Info Solutions Datahub, FPS has leveraged QB success rates relative to defensive coverage throughout the 2020 season to better predict expected QB performance relative to the market. As a matter of fact, the QB vs Coverage series was one of our best performing models of the season. The model was not … Continue reading 2020 QB Success by Defensive Coverage
A home-run is easier to hit over a 380 ft. wall than a 400 ft. wall. A jump shot made wide-open vs. a contested shot is far more likely to succeed. Running the football in the NFL effectively is easier when there are less would-be-tacklers close to the line of scrimmage. Because of this, today … Continue reading 2020 RB Success Rate by Box Size
Flipping the Run/Play-Action Success Question on it’s head. A friend of mine asked my opinion as to why the Steelers run game has fallen off the last two years. Knowing last year was most likely due to the loaded boxes (as described in the Football Outsiders Almanac) defenses lined-up with Big Ben, I focused mainly … Continue reading Does the lack of Play-Action(PA) PASSING, lead to a decrease in RUN success?
Metrics like Expected Points Added (EPA) can tell us how well a player is performing in a game, season, etc. But what about how consistent a player is? For anyone that needs to take a predictive or forward-looking view on performance, how consistent a player is, may be just as important as base performance. Being … Continue reading Who is the Most Consistent QB in 2020?
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