Found in the Sports Info Solutions Datahub, FPS has leveraged QB success rates relative to defensive coverage throughout the 2020 season to better predict expected QB performance relative to the market. As a matter of fact, the QB vs Coverage series was one of our best performing models of the season. The model was not … Continue reading 2020 QB Success by Defensive Coverage
A home-run is easier to hit over a 380 ft. wall than a 400 ft. wall. A jump shot made wide-open vs. a contested shot is far more likely to succeed. Running the football in the NFL effectively is easier when there are less would-be-tacklers close to the line of scrimmage. Because of this, today … Continue reading 2020 RB Success Rate by Box Size
Flipping the Run/Play-Action Success Question on it’s head. A friend of mine asked my opinion as to why the Steelers run game has fallen off the last two years. Knowing last year was most likely due to the loaded boxes (as described in the Football Outsiders Almanac) defenses lined-up with Big Ben, I focused mainly … Continue reading Does the lack of Play-Action(PA) PASSING, lead to a decrease in RUN success?
Metrics like Expected Points Added (EPA) can tell us how well a player is performing in a game, season, etc. But what about how consistent a player is? For anyone that needs to take a predictive or forward-looking view on performance, how consistent a player is, may be just as important as base performance. Being … Continue reading Who is the Most Consistent QB in 2020?
Only 6 games, but there are a few clear disparities this week. Remember the first set of coverages are season long deployment averages by the respective defense. The second set pertains to the team’s QB, and the numbers represent a QB’s success RELATIVE to their average. In other words, the way to interpret the numbers … Continue reading QB vs Coverage Divisional Round
On the heels of another strong week (12-4), and one of the only publications that called the LAC SU win, and hinted at the two big upsets LW (through no plays and ATS for the UD), we maintain a correlation over 60% and pick accuracy (SU) over 70%. Please note this is NOT the final … Continue reading NFL Week 16 Picks
We need to wait for practice injury reports to release the full slate of selections, but below are the match-ups (NOT included in the objective model) to help us identify QBs mismatches. As a reminder the first set of columns indicate how frequently a team uses the respective coverage. The second set is a QB’s … Continue reading NFL QB vs. Coverage Week 15 Model
We are testing what we call the “Mayfield/Goff Adjustment” this week: adding a multiplier for QBs most sensitive to the pressure, relative to opponent’s BLITZ (not pressure rate, on purpose). This, along with the product are the two columns to the right. Again players in yellow are either questionable and/or low volume, so take them … Continue reading NFL QB vs. Coverage Week 14 Model
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