We are knee deep in draft season. And although we have plenty of more in-depth analysis, we wanted to take a minute to break down/sum up why we are encouraging all of our readers to draft Clyde Edwards Helaire (CEH). Lest we forget what we thought of CEH coming out of LSU, and being supplanted … Continue reading Clyde Edwards-Helaire is this year’s fantasy breakout
Much has been said about the ways defenses have played high-powered offences, specifically the Chiefs, using more and more 2-High Safety looks. Similarly there has been plenty of talk in the fantasy circles as to how this affects Kelce. Essentially, defenses increase there use of 2-Safety looks in hopes to limit the explosive plays from … Continue reading Travis Kelce and the Chiefs vs Double-High Coverage
By now you know that FPS leverages “Matchup-Based” variables to derive value in both props and fantasy markets. If you are familiar with our work in Coverage Elasticity, we dove into a similar breakdown before (from another lens). Given that, we thought it would be interesting to see what TE/WRs last season performed best vs … Continue reading What WR hated Man Coverage the most in 2020?
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Back in 2017, we recognized an interesting new way to leverage the the “RB Handcuff” tactic, among multiple teams. In 2017 Ezekiel Elliot was suspended for the first 6 games, opening up an opportunity for an “above average RB” Darren McFadden to gain some serious points behind the best run-blocking OL at the time. Coincidingly, … Continue reading The Justin Fields QB Handcuff
As we covered in the NFL Offensive Identities and Defensive Identities each team is unique in their own way, yet rarely covered correctly by traditional media. Given the value in knowing such info, as promised, we have a breakdown below of EXPECTED team identity changes given OC and DC changes. Below is a breakdown of … Continue reading NFL 2021 Team Identity Changes due to OC/DC Carousel
What Offenses saw the biggest disparities from defenses in 2020 (vs. expectation) Continuing from last week’s Coverage Elasticity to further investigate defensive coverage tendencies we will “flip the script” and look at the data from the offensive lens. Today we will look at which offenses saw the biggest disparities from what the NFL-wide typical defensive … Continue reading 2020 NFL Coverage Elasticity Part II
NFL 2020 Defensive Deployment FootballPredictionSystems knows the value of understanding a defense’s coverage tendency, and the corresponding expected QB performance vs. said coverage. FPS leverages this information to profit greatly from finding value in the prop/derivative market (remember the +1100 we advised for Aaron Rodgers during the playoffs) that most books don’t account for. However, … Continue reading 2020 NFL Coverage Elasticity
Continuing on last week’s series NFL Team Identities, Offense, today we bring you the counterpart to the to last week’s post: Team Defense Identity. Again, the purpose here is to give those serious about the game a true lens to view what a team’s strategy actually is. Please refer to last week’s article for key … Continue reading NFL Team Identities, Defense
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