Not all 3rd downs are created equal. Clearly a 3rd and 2, is much easier to convert vs. a 3rd and 10, right? Than, why do we give so much credence to a RAW "3rd Down Conversion Rate"? I noted this issue last year when we saw how low Mitch Trubisky's 3rd conversion rate was, … Continue reading Why 3rd Down Conversion Rate is Worthless
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By now you know that FPS leverages "Matchup-Based" variables to derive value in both props and fantasy markets. If you are familiar with our work in Coverage Elasticity, we dove into a similar breakdown before (from another lens). Given that, we thought it would be interesting to see what TE/WRs last season performed best vs … Continue reading What WR hated Man Coverage the most in 2020?
I stumbled across a (new?) betting option that DraftKings (at least) is offering. Set same game parlays. They call them "Moneyline/Total" or "Spread/Total". The premise is simple. instead of betting on one team, lets say on the moneyline, you ALSO bet on a team winning, PLUS the Over/Under within the same bet (and get a … Continue reading (Almost) Sure NFL bet Part III
Analytics has done wonders in answering the age-old questions we've had about the game. They've explained to us that "defense does NOT win championships", sold us on "RBs don't matter" and "You don't need to run to setup the pass", just to name a few. However, one challenge that's escaped "the football analytics field", even … Continue reading Who’s more responsible for the Pass Game, QB or WR?