After a great start to the playoffs our main system is calling for 3 obvious picks (shared selections from our base model, DVOA variance model and even our playoff model) and one mixed: the TB upset of NO. Overall we are not very confident at any of the pricings, but there is plenty of value … Continue reading NFL Divisional Round Picks
Only 6 games, but there are a few clear disparities this week. Remember the first set of coverages are season long deployment averages by the respective defense. The second set pertains to the team's QB, and the numbers represent a QB's success RELATIVE to their average. In other words, the way to interpret the numbers … Continue reading QB vs Coverage Divisional Round
Even though 24 of the last 40 Wildcard games have been won by the lower seed, and the NFL Wildcard weekend is typically strife with upsets, our standard and playoff models are pretty "boring". Here's the deal: upsets during the NFL Wildcard Playoff round are quite common, bordering on regular. For some reason our research … Continue reading NFL Super Wildcard Weekend Picks
A couple of important notes: -Remember, of numbers here AND the way to interpret this chart is: how well will a QB likely perform based on his success level by coverage and the most likely coverage use by a defense RELATIVE to that QB's normal production (in other words, if you see Mahomes with a … Continue reading QB vs Coverage, Super Wildcard Weekend
We included an additional column for Matchup DVOA the first week both teams played. Also be ware of the ATL play (we like it but) its mainly because of the 2.4 EPA TB loses with Devin White getting Covid. If you would like the full version of the model please shoot us an email.
With all the "QB substitutions" among the teams resting starters/etc. we gave pause to using this model for predictive forecasting. However, given this relatively drastic alteration of what the sportsbooks use to set lines, we think there likely is greater (not lesser) opportunity this week, particularly in QB props using the QB by Coverage Model. … Continue reading NFL QB vs Coverage Week 17
On the heels of another strong week (12-4), and one of the only publications that called the LAC SU win, and hinted at the two big upsets LW (through no plays and ATS for the UD), we maintain a correlation over 60% and pick accuracy (SU) over 70%. Please note this is NOT the final … Continue reading NFL Week 16 Picks
We made a slight adjustment, Reintroducing TTT, based on the correls from the last 3 weeks. Note the players with yellow highlights had to be estimated/use previous year's data to complete.
QB by coverage updated to this week. We adjusted the scales to make the MARGINAL rates more relevant to the model. Otherwise we are very confident in this ASPECT to the model. Also play DEN/LAC Under (will explain when full model is released).
We selected 12/16 match-ups last week, and the model correlated at 60.3% to outcomes (NOT point total/ATS, that hit 37%). There are still a few key injury adjustments to be made to this week's final selections (DET and NYG to name a few), but about 90% of the alterations have been accounted for/adjusted in the … Continue reading NFL Week 15 Picks