Data-driven, proprietary metrics and analysis to help Fantasy Owners, and Sports Bettors
How to not suck at Fantasy Football FPS has 12 years of winning Fantasy Football experience under its belt. Not just in record, titles and 2nd place finishes, but when teasing out variance and luck: FPS consistently outperforms expectations of the "crowd". Below you can see 2 quick examples from last year alone, where our … Continue reading Fantasy Football 10 Commandments
Here we are again! A full-season's worth of data, to help us predict the 2020 NFL season. Last year's 2019 NFL Teams on the Rise/Fall performed very well with Baltimore ranked #1 in "Going Up", Kansas City/San Francisco in the top 7, and Dallas/Rams, 1/2 respectively in the "Going Down" column. The goal from our annual … Continue reading 2020 NFL Predictions
The 2020 SIS Football Rookie Handbook, only two years in its existence, has immediately become a yearly “must-order” along with the Football Outsiders Almanac for any analytics junkies. Most of the 518 pages of Advanced Statistics goodness is dedicated to the incoming Rookie Class, but it also includes short sections breaking down every team and its … Continue reading Top 5 Quick NFL Team Fixes brought you you by SIS Rookie Handbook
I just finished reading The Logic of Sports Betting, and one of central themes was this concept of finding markets that haven’t been “picked through” or even derivatives (first half ATS, etc). That is, not playing big markets that haven’t been bet up/down early on (ATS NFL at big books, etc), and have been priced … Continue reading First Half Angle for 2020 NFL
As noted earlier in Rethinking NFL Home Field Advantage Part I, Home Field Advantage (HFA) been proven to be MOST directly a function of referees being human. And although Vegas still prices HFA based on stadium, instead of humans, there is a clear opportunity to find market value there. With that being said, if we … Continue reading Rethinking NFL Home Field Advantage Part II
NFL Home Field Advantage by Referee As many have learned through our studies and advanced analytics, home field advantage (HFA) exists in all sports, but is largely due to referees and their (subliminal) human nature. You can learn about this phenomenon in detail on the podcast about Home Field Advantage by Freakonomics. With that being … Continue reading Rethinking NFL Home Field Advantage Part I
Below you will find any/all changes made this offseason for play calling OCs. Additionally, based on truly neutral game scripts we investigated how (if at all) things may change with their new teams, especially in True Run vs Pass rates. TmCoachPrev. OC Tm.sNeutral Prev Tm.s Tend.What to glean from playcaller's previous tendencies (using neutral game … Continue reading 2020 OC Changes and their Impact on Fantasy Football
Target Distribution by position isn't new. However, Game situation has a large affect on targets. Meaning, to have a higher level of predictability, teasing out game situations and looking at the target ratios will help give us a clearer picture of where teams like to distribute targets, Below you will find what happened last year, … Continue reading True Target Distribution from 2019
RB performance is, by in large a function of OL ability. But how much? Football Outsiders tries to capture this with ALY yards. Honing in on information valuable to fantasy owners in 2020 we took it 2 steps further: 1. If ALY yards hone in on short distance yards relative to 10-20 yard, or breakaway … Continue reading True/Adjusted OL Run Blocking Projections for 2020 Fantasy Football
41%. Forty-one percent is the average attrition rate for the top 100 Fantasy Football Rankings every year. The NFL’s Top 100 players, as voted on by their peers, sees 20-40 new faces each year. The NFL itself has so much parity, it shocks me how often fantasy owners rely on the past year to repeat … Continue reading 5 Bold Predictions for the 2019 Fantasy Football Season
