NFL Turnover Likelihood Week 12

Winning the turnover battle has a strong correlation to winning the game. This is not news. However, the ways in which other sites have gone about predicting this historically has been flawed (FPS included). Here's what we know about turnovers: Fumble recovery is a function almost entirely of luck. We know that regression sways recovery … Continue reading NFL Turnover Likelihood Week 12

Top 5 Quick NFL Team Fixes brought you you by SIS Rookie Handbook

The 2020 SIS Football Rookie Handbook, only two years in its existence, has immediately become a yearly “must-order” along with the Football Outsiders Almanac for any analytics junkies. Most of the 518 pages of Advanced Statistics goodness is dedicated to the incoming Rookie Class, but it also includes short sections breaking down every team and its … Continue reading Top 5 Quick NFL Team Fixes brought you you by SIS Rookie Handbook

Rethinking NFL Home Field Advantage Part II

As noted earlier in Rethinking NFL Home Field Advantage Part I, Home Field Advantage (HFA) been proven to be MOST directly a function of referees being human. And although Vegas still prices HFA based on stadium, instead of humans, there is a clear opportunity to find market value there.  With that being said, if we … Continue reading Rethinking NFL Home Field Advantage Part II

Rethinking NFL Home Field Advantage Part I

NFL Home Field Advantage by Referee As many have learned through our studies and advanced analytics, home field advantage (HFA) exists in all sports, but is largely due to referees and their (subliminal) human nature. You can learn about this phenomenon in detail on the podcast about Home Field Advantage by Freakonomics. With that being … Continue reading Rethinking NFL Home Field Advantage Part I