NFL Divisional Round Picks

After a great start to the playoffs our main system is calling for 3 obvious picks (shared selections from our base model, DVOA variance model and even our playoff model) and one mixed: the TB upset of NO. Overall we are not very confident at any of the pricings, but there is plenty of value … Continue reading NFL Divisional Round Picks

QB vs Coverage Divisional Round

Only 6 games, but there are a few clear disparities this week. Remember the first set of coverages are season long deployment averages by the respective defense. The second set pertains to the team's QB, and the numbers represent a QB's success RELATIVE to their average. In other words, the way to interpret the numbers … Continue reading QB vs Coverage Divisional Round

NFL Week 17 Picks

We included an additional column for Matchup DVOA the first week both teams played. Also be ware of the ATL play (we like it but) its mainly because of the 2.4 EPA TB loses with Devin White getting Covid. If you would like the full version of the model please shoot us an email.

NFL QB vs Coverage Week 17

With all the "QB substitutions" among the teams resting starters/etc. we gave pause to using this model for predictive forecasting. However, given this relatively drastic alteration of what the sportsbooks use to set lines, we think there likely is greater (not lesser) opportunity this week, particularly in QB props using the QB by Coverage Model. … Continue reading NFL QB vs Coverage Week 17