Data-driven, proprietary metrics and analysis to help Fantasy Owners, and Sports Bettors
What the FPS Model says about Week 12 in the NFL For the past 6 years we have been fine tuning a week-to-week model that accurately predicts NFL outcomes at a profitable level. Although we call this FPS 2.0, it may as well be called version 1,294. Our hope is do do a deep dive … Continue reading NFL Week 12 Picks
Winning the turnover battle has a strong correlation to winning the game. This is not news. However, the ways in which other sites have gone about predicting this historically has been flawed (FPS included). Here's what we know about turnovers: Fumble recovery is a function almost entirely of luck. We know that regression sways recovery … Continue reading NFL Turnover Likelihood Week 12
Week 12 It's been a minute. My apologies as my time at Sports Info Solutions has taken up the lion's share of my time the past few months, but our models, data and forecasts are the better for it. More to come later, but for now you can find the QB breakdown of positive play … Continue reading QB vs Opponent Coverage Model
As cited in Fantasy Football 10 Commandments, cheat sheets and rankings are pretty useless for serious players come draft day. Instead we recommend a draft script, to maximize the preparation you've put in and allow you're draft day to be a breeze. Feel free to use the script below as a base, or simply follow … Continue reading 2020 Fantasy Football Draft Script
How to not suck at Fantasy Football FPS has 12 years of winning Fantasy Football experience under its belt. Not just in record, titles and 2nd place finishes, but when teasing out variance and luck: FPS consistently outperforms expectations of the "crowd". Below you can see 2 quick examples from last year alone, where our … Continue reading Fantasy Football 10 Commandments
Here we are again! A full-season's worth of data, to help us predict the 2020 NFL season. Last year's 2019 NFL Teams on the Rise/Fall performed very well with Baltimore ranked #1 in "Going Up", Kansas City/San Francisco in the top 7, and Dallas/Rams, 1/2 respectively in the "Going Down" column. The goal from our annual … Continue reading 2020 NFL Predictions
The 2020 SIS Football Rookie Handbook, only two years in its existence, has immediately become a yearly “must-order” along with the Football Outsiders Almanac for any analytics junkies. Most of the 518 pages of Advanced Statistics goodness is dedicated to the incoming Rookie Class, but it also includes short sections breaking down every team and its … Continue reading Top 5 Quick NFL Team Fixes brought you you by SIS Rookie Handbook
I just finished reading The Logic of Sports Betting, and one of central themes was this concept of finding markets that haven’t been “picked through” or even derivatives (first half ATS, etc). That is, not playing big markets that haven’t been bet up/down early on (ATS NFL at big books, etc), and have been priced … Continue reading First Half Angle for 2020 NFL
As noted earlier in Rethinking NFL Home Field Advantage Part I, Home Field Advantage (HFA) been proven to be MOST directly a function of referees being human. And although Vegas still prices HFA based on stadium, instead of humans, there is a clear opportunity to find market value there. With that being said, if we … Continue reading Rethinking NFL Home Field Advantage Part II
NFL Home Field Advantage by Referee As many have learned through our studies and advanced analytics, home field advantage (HFA) exists in all sports, but is largely due to referees and their (subliminal) human nature. You can learn about this phenomenon in detail on the podcast about Home Field Advantage by Freakonomics. With that being … Continue reading Rethinking NFL Home Field Advantage Part I
