Coverage Elasticity Part II

What Offenses saw the biggest disparities from defenses in 2020 (vs. expectation)  Continuing from last week’s Coverage Elasticity to further investigate defensive coverage tendencies we will “flip the script” and look at the data from the offensive lens. Today we will look at which offenses saw the biggest disparities from what the NFL-wide typical defensive … Continue reading Coverage Elasticity Part II

Coverage Elasticity

NFL 2020 Defensive Deployment FootballPredictionSystems knows the value of understanding a defense’s coverage tendency, and the corresponding expected QB performance vs. said coverage. FPS leverages this information to profit greatly from finding value in the prop/derivative market (remember the +1100 we advised for Aaron Rodgers during the playoffs) that most books don’t account for.  However, … Continue reading Coverage Elasticity

Last Year’s Sacks don’t predict Next Year’s Sacks

But Hurries do It’s been a few years since the analytics community taught us sacks shouldn’t be the “end all, be all” metric for pass rushers. Yet  many still fall for the trap. Even NFL teams, and their GMs, those who are paid (alot and solely) to select good players for their team, continue to … Continue reading Last Year’s Sacks don’t predict Next Year’s Sacks

AFC/NFC Championship Futures

Betting on football, especially the NFL comes with distinct advantages/disadvantages. On the “negative side”, with 22 humans on the field on any given play, the amount of chaos leads to variance very few other sports see (when looking through the lens of a sports bettor). However, on the plus side, because of this high level … Continue reading AFC/NFC Championship Futures