Details Current Lines ATS: Los Angeles Chargers -3.5 (Opened Chargers -3)Moneyline: Los Angeles Chargers -187 / Dallas Cowboys +156 (Opened Chargers -159 / Cowboys +135)Total: 55.5 (Opened 55.5)*Breakeven %**ATS: 52.4% (as always for either team)Moneyline: 65.2% Los Angeles Chargers, 39.1% Dallas CowboysTotal: 52.4% (either way)Last meeting: The home Cowboys lost to the Chargers 28-6 *Reminder: “Breakeven … Continue reading Dallas Cowboys at Los Angeles Chargers Game Odds and Game Pick
Season Total: 3-0, Up 270% (Won -115, -110 and -120 bets) Week 1 has come and gone, but when making predictions it's important to keep in mind that we are still very early in the season, with limited data. It's important to properly weight last season’s information, solidifying priors and ensuring we don’t overreact to … Continue reading NFL Football Best Bets: Week 2 (2021)
Not all 3rd downs are created equal. Clearly a 3rd and 2, is much easier to convert vs. a 3rd and 10, right? Than, why do we give so much credence to a RAW "3rd Down Conversion Rate"? I noted this issue last year when we saw how low Mitch Trubisky's 3rd conversion rate was, … Continue reading Why 3rd Down Conversion Rate is Worthless
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By now you know that FPS leverages "Matchup-Based" variables to derive value in both props and fantasy markets. If you are familiar with our work in Coverage Elasticity, we dove into a similar breakdown before (from another lens). Given that, we thought it would be interesting to see what TE/WRs last season performed best vs … Continue reading What WR hated Man Coverage the most in 2020?