Travis Kelce and the Chiefs vs Double-High Coverage

Much has been said about the ways defenses have played high-powered offences, specifically the Chiefs, using more and more 2-High Safety looks. Similarly there has been plenty of talk in the fantasy circles as to how this affects Kelce. Essentially, defenses increase there use of 2-Safety looks in hopes to limit the explosive plays from Tyreek Hill and the such. And with that the assumption is that the Chiefs are happy to “litter” Kelce underneath when this happens. So let’s take a look at how target shares change given the two types of safety looks for the Chiefs:

As you can see, Kelce does in fact get a legitimate increase in target share with Double High looks. Interestingly, both Hill and Kelce get more looks (but Kelce’s chunk is much larger. Digging a little deeper, as the original thought process with this strategy was to limit explosive plays, see how the “Boom Rate” changes among the players given the two different coverage sets.

In other words, the reasoning behind the 2-High looks does limit Hill’s “Boom Rate”, yet does little to affect Kelce’s, further proof that if defenses do play more 2-High looks, Kelce may continue to gobble up all the extra targets.