Travis Kelce and the Chiefs vs Double-High Coverage

Much has been said about the ways defenses have played high-powered offences, specifically the Chiefs, using more and more 2-High Safety looks. Similarly there has been plenty of talk in the fantasy circles as to how this affects Kelce. Essentially, defenses increase there use of 2-Safety looks in hopes to limit the explosive plays from Tyreek Hill and the such. And with that the assumption is that the Chiefs are happy to “litter” Kelce underneath when this happens. So let’s take a look at how target shares change given the two types of safety looks for the Chiefs:

Travis KelceChiefsTE20.99%27.02%6.02%
Tyreek HillChiefsWR21.37%24.60%3.22%
Demarcus RobinsonChiefsWR9.54%11.29%1.75%
Byron PringleChiefsWR2.67%3.23%0.55%
Nick KeizerChiefsTE1.15%1.61%0.47%
Ricky Seals-JonesChiefsTE0.00%0.40%0.40%
Marcus KempChiefsWR0.00%0.40%0.40%
Mecole HardmanChiefsWR9.54%9.68%0.14%
Darwin ThompsonChiefsRB0.76%0.81%0.04%
Anthony ShermanChiefsFB0.38%0.00%-0.38%
Le’Veon BellChiefsRB2.67%2.02%-0.66%
Gehrig DieterChiefsWR0.76%0.00%-0.76%
Darrel WilliamsChiefsRB4.58%2.82%-1.76%
Deon YelderChiefsTE3.05%1.21%-1.84%
Sammy WatkinsChiefsWR11.07%8.06%-3.00%
Clyde Edwards-HelaireChiefsRB10.31%6.45%-3.85%

As you can see, Kelce does in fact get a legitimate increase in target share with Double High looks. Interestingly, both Hill and Kelce get more looks (but Kelce’s chunk is much larger. Digging a little deeper, as the original thought process with this strategy was to limit explosive plays, see how the “Boom Rate” changes among the players given the two different coverage sets.

PlayerSingle High Boom RateDouble High Boom RateNet
Travis Kelce38.20%40.30%2.10%
Tyreek Hill37.50%23.00%-14.50%
Demarcus Robinson28.00%14.30%-13.70%
Byron Pringle14.30%37.50%23.20%
Nick Keizer0.00%50.00%50.00%
Ricky Seals-Jones0.00%0.00%0.00%
Marcus Kemp0.00%0.00%0.00%
Mecole Hardman24.00%33.30%9.30%
Darwin Thompson0.00%50.00%50.00%
Anthony Sherman0.00%0.00%0.00%
Le’Veon Bell0.00%0.00%0.00%
Gehrig Dieter0.00%0.00%0.00%
Darrel Williams16.70%0.00%-16.70%
Deon Yelder0.00%0.00%0.00%
Sammy Watkins27.60%30.00%2.40%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire22.20%6.30%-15.90%

In other words, the reasoning behind the 2-High looks does limit Hill’s “Boom Rate”, yet does little to affect Kelce’s, further proof that if defenses do play more 2-High looks, Kelce may continue to gobble up all the extra targets.

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