By request, we added a few more columns. Mind you nDAVE is our base model using Football Outsiders DVOA, add 3 adjustments for Coach, Injury and Turnover Likelihood. Other columns included are subjective, yet something NOT reflected in the model. For example, net DVOA (or DAVE) gives us how well you expect a team to … Continue reading NFL Week 14 Picks
Here we go again, correlated at almost 46% last week. Remember "TO Likely" relates to THAT QB, and "Opp TO Li" relates to your opponent turning the ball over.
We are testing what we call the "Mayfield/Goff Adjustment" this week: adding a multiplier for QBs most sensitive to the pressure, relative to opponent's BLITZ (not pressure rate, on purpose). This, along with the product are the two columns to the right. Again players in yellow are either questionable and/or low volume, so take them … Continue reading NFL QB vs. Coverage Week 14 Model
Week 12 worked out quite well. As we have been, and will be, we will let our numbers (for the most part) do the writing for us. We are still planning to provide a deep dive on weights/how we got to this variables, but for now you can find a simple breakdown of the numbers … Continue reading NFL Week 13 Picks
As outlined last week in Turnover Likelihood, here is the breakdown of this adjustment we add to the of aggregate weekly model. This has correlated between 20-30% to actual turnovers. Full model to come shortly. Note, players with colored cells had adjustments made because of lack of volume.
Last week, despite multiple surprises at the QB position, we released our QB v Opponent Coverage Model. This model, although not included in our weekly aggregate model (yet), helps predict QB outcomes for the week by stratifying QB success by coverage and comparing it to their opponents likelihood to play x coverage. Below you will … Continue reading QB v Opponent Coverage Model – Week 13
What the FPS Model says about Week 12 in the NFL For the past 6 years we have been fine tuning a week-to-week model that accurately predicts NFL outcomes at a profitable level. Although we call this FPS 2.0, it may as well be called version 1,294. Our hope is do do a deep dive … Continue reading NFL Week 12 Picks
Winning the turnover battle has a strong correlation to winning the game. This is not news. However, the ways in which other sites have gone about predicting this historically has been flawed (FPS included). Here's what we know about turnovers: Fumble recovery is a function almost entirely of luck. We know that regression sways recovery … Continue reading NFL Turnover Likelihood Week 12
Week 12 It's been a minute. My apologies as my time at Sports Info Solutions has taken up the lion's share of my time the past few months, but our models, data and forecasts are the better for it. More to come later, but for now you can find the QB breakdown of positive play … Continue reading QB vs Opponent Coverage Model
Here we are again! A full-season's worth of data, to help us predict the 2020 NFL season. Last year's 2019 NFL Teams on the Rise/Fall performed very well with Baltimore ranked #1 in "Going Up", Kansas City/San Francisco in the top 7, and Dallas/Rams, 1/2 respectively in the "Going Down" column. The goal from our annual … Continue reading 2020 NFL Predictions