NFL Week 14 Picks

By request, we added a few more columns. Mind you nDAVE is our base model using Football Outsiders DVOA, add 3 adjustments for Coach, Injury and Turnover Likelihood. Other columns included are subjective, yet something NOT reflected in the model. For example, net DVOA (or DAVE) gives us how well you expect a team to … Continue reading NFL Week 14 Picks

NFL QB vs. Coverage Week 14 Model

We are testing what we call the "Mayfield/Goff Adjustment" this week: adding a multiplier for QBs most sensitive to the pressure, relative to opponent's BLITZ (not pressure rate, on purpose). This, along with the product are the two columns to the right. Again players in yellow are either questionable and/or low volume, so take them … Continue reading NFL QB vs. Coverage Week 14 Model

QB v Opponent Coverage Model – Week 13

Last week, despite multiple surprises at the QB position, we released our QB v Opponent Coverage Model. This model, although not included in our weekly aggregate model (yet), helps predict QB outcomes for the week by stratifying QB success by coverage and comparing it to their opponents likelihood to play x coverage. Below you will … Continue reading QB v Opponent Coverage Model – Week 13

NFL Turnover Likelihood Week 12

Winning the turnover battle has a strong correlation to winning the game. This is not news. However, the ways in which other sites have gone about predicting this historically has been flawed (FPS included). Here's what we know about turnovers: Fumble recovery is a function almost entirely of luck. We know that regression sways recovery … Continue reading NFL Turnover Likelihood Week 12