It's no secret that QBs are the most critical position to winning football games. However, HOW a QB operates, HOW he wins (or loses) games come in all “shapes and sizes”. And I’m not referring to obvious differentiators like running QB vs dropback passer. Instead, now equipped with cutting-edge tracking data, we can identify and … Continue reading NFL QB Archetypes
WR vs CB Week 1
I must share a major disclaimer before jumping into to this: Pass Coverage performance as a whole, regardless of what metric you use, is by far the most volatile of datapoints. Hence, ANY model built to predict outcomes based on coverage ability (using the past to predict the future) must be taken with a hefty … Continue reading WR vs CB Week 1
NFL Win Totals 2022
Using variance from 2021, compared to the change in (priced) win total in 2022 we find profitable opportunities among NFL Win Totals in 2022. Between our 3 different publications, over the last 6 years, we have published a painfully accurate, "NFL Going Up/Down" article every season. And with each passing year we have improved the … Continue reading NFL Win Totals 2022
NCAA Identities 2021 – Defense
You have likely seen the series highlighting both NFL and NCAA team's identities from the lens a coach would (base) scout an opponent. This week we finish up with the NCAA Defense, which I greatly simplified per popular feedback. Again, I have every data point listed as a rank (as wordpress is very goofy with … Continue reading NCAA Identities 2021 – Defense
NCAA Identities 2021 – Offense
As we described the past couple weeks, notably in the NFL Offensive Identities we offered a basic breakdown of what a team REALLY does (from a coach's perspective). Mind you the purpose of this piece is to give you a "totem" of sorts when setting your models, predictions, etc to properly understand what a team … Continue reading NCAA Identities 2021 – Offense