NFL Super Wildcard Weekend Picks

Even though 24 of the last 40 Wildcard games have been won by the lower seed, and the NFL Wildcard weekend is typically strife with upsets, our standard and playoff models are pretty "boring". Here's the deal: upsets during the NFL Wildcard Playoff round are quite common, bordering on regular. For some reason our research … Continue reading NFL Super Wildcard Weekend Picks

QB vs Coverage, Super Wildcard Weekend

A couple of important notes: -Remember, of numbers here AND the way to interpret this chart is: how well will a QB likely perform based on his success level by coverage and the most likely coverage use by a defense RELATIVE to that QB's normal production (in other words, if you see Mahomes with a … Continue reading QB vs Coverage, Super Wildcard Weekend

NFL QB vs Coverage Week 17

With all the "QB substitutions" among the teams resting starters/etc. we gave pause to using this model for predictive forecasting. However, given this relatively drastic alteration of what the sportsbooks use to set lines, we think there likely is greater (not lesser) opportunity this week, particularly in QB props using the QB by Coverage Model. … Continue reading NFL QB vs Coverage Week 17