After a great start to the playoffs our main system is calling for 3 obvious picks (shared selections from our base model, DVOA variance model and even our playoff model) and one mixed: the TB upset of NO. Overall we are not very confident at any of the pricings, but there is plenty of value … Continue reading NFL Divisional Round Picks
Even though 24 of the last 40 Wildcard games have been won by the lower seed, and the NFL Wildcard weekend is typically strife with upsets, our standard and playoff models are pretty "boring". Here's the deal: upsets during the NFL Wildcard Playoff round are quite common, bordering on regular. For some reason our research … Continue reading NFL Super Wildcard Weekend Picks
A couple of important notes: -Remember, of numbers here AND the way to interpret this chart is: how well will a QB likely perform based on his success level by coverage and the most likely coverage use by a defense RELATIVE to that QB's normal production (in other words, if you see Mahomes with a … Continue reading QB vs Coverage, Super Wildcard Weekend
We included an additional column for Matchup DVOA the first week both teams played. Also be ware of the ATL play (we like it but) its mainly because of the 2.4 EPA TB loses with Devin White getting Covid. If you would like the full version of the model please shoot us an email.
With all the "QB substitutions" among the teams resting starters/etc. we gave pause to using this model for predictive forecasting. However, given this relatively drastic alteration of what the sportsbooks use to set lines, we think there likely is greater (not lesser) opportunity this week, particularly in QB props using the QB by Coverage Model. … Continue reading NFL QB vs Coverage Week 17