We hope everyone used our projection system to cash in on the 11:1 payout for Rogers having the largest yardage performance this past week (as we did). Note, again, since both teams have played each other this year (oddly both in week 6), we adjusted the defensive coverage projection at half weight their yearly deployment … Continue reading QB vs. Coverage Championship Round
After a great start to the playoffs our main system is calling for 3 obvious picks (shared selections from our base model, DVOA variance model and even our playoff model) and one mixed: the TB upset of NO. Overall we are not very confident at any of the pricings, but there is plenty of value … Continue reading NFL Divisional Round Picks
Even though 24 of the last 40 Wildcard games have been won by the lower seed, and the NFL Wildcard weekend is typically strife with upsets, our standard and playoff models are pretty "boring". Here's the deal: upsets during the NFL Wildcard Playoff round are quite common, bordering on regular. For some reason our research … Continue reading NFL Super Wildcard Weekend Picks
A couple of important notes: -Remember, of numbers here AND the way to interpret this chart is: how well will a QB likely perform based on his success level by coverage and the most likely coverage use by a defense RELATIVE to that QB's normal production (in other words, if you see Mahomes with a … Continue reading QB vs Coverage, Super Wildcard Weekend
We included an additional column for Matchup DVOA the first week both teams played. Also be ware of the ATL play (we like it but) its mainly because of the 2.4 EPA TB loses with Devin White getting Covid. If you would like the full version of the model please shoot us an email.
With all the "QB substitutions" among the teams resting starters/etc. we gave pause to using this model for predictive forecasting. However, given this relatively drastic alteration of what the sportsbooks use to set lines, we think there likely is greater (not lesser) opportunity this week, particularly in QB props using the QB by Coverage Model. … Continue reading NFL QB vs Coverage Week 17
We made a slight adjustment, Reintroducing TTT, based on the correls from the last 3 weeks. Note the players with yellow highlights had to be estimated/use previous year's data to complete.
QB by coverage updated to this week. We adjusted the scales to make the MARGINAL rates more relevant to the model. Otherwise we are very confident in this ASPECT to the model. Also play DEN/LAC Under (will explain when full model is released).
What the FPS Model says about Week 12 in the NFL For the past 6 years we have been fine tuning a week-to-week model that accurately predicts NFL outcomes at a profitable level. Although we call this FPS 2.0, it may as well be called version 1,294. Our hope is do do a deep dive … Continue reading NFL Week 12 Picks
As cited in Fantasy Football 10 Commandments, cheat sheets and rankings are pretty useless for serious players come draft day. Instead we recommend a draft script, to maximize the preparation you've put in and allow you're draft day to be a breeze. Feel free to use the script below as a base, or simply follow … Continue reading 2020 Fantasy Football Draft Script