QB vs. Coverage Championship Round

We hope everyone used our projection system to cash in on the 11:1 payout for Rogers having the largest yardage performance this past week (as we did). Note, again, since both teams have played each other this year (oddly both in week 6), we adjusted the defensive coverage projection at half weight their yearly deployment … Continue reading QB vs. Coverage Championship Round

NFL Week 17 Picks

We included an additional column for Matchup DVOA the first week both teams played. Also be ware of the ATL play (we like it but) its mainly because of the 2.4 EPA TB loses with Devin White getting Covid. If you would like the full version of the model please shoot us an email.

NFL QB vs Coverage Week 17

With all the "QB substitutions" among the teams resting starters/etc. we gave pause to using this model for predictive forecasting. However, given this relatively drastic alteration of what the sportsbooks use to set lines, we think there likely is greater (not lesser) opportunity this week, particularly in QB props using the QB by Coverage Model. … Continue reading NFL QB vs Coverage Week 17