An (Almost) For Sure Futures Bet

Middling and detached parlays have been a typical tool deployed by serious bettors for some time. They help balance risk, and maximize their portion of EV bets. Typically, we see these opportunities in-season, when a particular game's line moves significantly during the week. However, the offseason can be ripe with these opportunities if you know … Continue reading An (Almost) For Sure Futures Bet

NFL 2021 Identity Changes from OC/DC Changes

As we covered in the NFL Offensive Identities and Defensive Identities each team is unique in their own way, yet rarely covered correctly by traditional media. Given the value in knowing such info, as promised, we have a breakdown below of EXPECTED team identity changes given OC and DC changes. Below is a breakdown of … Continue reading NFL 2021 Identity Changes from OC/DC Changes

Coverage Elasticity Part II

What Offenses saw the biggest disparities from defenses in 2020 (vs. expectation)  Continuing from last week’s Coverage Elasticity to further investigate defensive coverage tendencies we will “flip the script” and look at the data from the offensive lens. Today we will look at which offenses saw the biggest disparities from what the NFL-wide typical defensive … Continue reading Coverage Elasticity Part II

Coverage Elasticity

NFL 2020 Defensive Deployment FootballPredictionSystems knows the value of understanding a defense’s coverage tendency, and the corresponding expected QB performance vs. said coverage. FPS leverages this information to profit greatly from finding value in the prop/derivative market (remember the +1100 we advised for Aaron Rodgers during the playoffs) that most books don’t account for.  However, … Continue reading Coverage Elasticity

NFL Team Identities, Defense

Continuing on last week's series NFL Team Identities, Offense, today we bring you the counterpart to the to last week's post: Team Defense Identity. Again, the purpose here is to give those serious about the game a true lens to view what a team's strategy actually is. Please refer to last week's article for key … Continue reading NFL Team Identities, Defense