Throughout the season we used opponent's coverage use and success relative to their opponent's QB success within the same guidelines to help us predict outcomes the market did not account for. Today we're doing a deep dive on NFL Pass Coverage, to help understand what defenses use, what they do well and where they can … Continue reading 2020 NFL Pass Coverage Analysis
Tom Brady, likely pumped full of osteoarthritis medicine, led the 3-point underdog Tampa Bay Buccaneers to a Super Bowl Victory yesterday. However, the game was won by the absolute clinic put on by Todd Bowles and the Buccaneers defense put on last night. Holding Mahomes to single digit points for the first time since...ever? Seriously, … Continue reading How Tampa Bay shut down Mahomes in Super Bowl LV
Flipping the Run/Play-Action Success Question on it's head. Dec 30, 2018; Seattle, WA, USA; Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson (3) hands the ball to Seattle Seahawks running back Chris Carson (32) during the second half against the Arizona Cardinals at CenturyLink Field. Seattle defeated Arizona 27-24. Mandatory Credit: Steven Bisig-USA TODAY Sports A friend of … Continue reading Does the lack of Play-Action(PA) PASSING, lead to a decrease in RUN success?
No one. Sharp bettors will stay away, and so should you. Sharp bettors care about one thing: profit, not betting for the sake of it, or betting because its the Super Bowl. All of our models are confounded, which means, this is officially a NO PLAY. We will sit back and collect our TB NFL … Continue reading Super Bowl Pick and Props to Target
Metrics like Expected Points Added (EPA) can tell us how well a player is performing in a game, season, etc. But what about how consistent a player is? For anyone that needs to take a predictive or forward-looking view on performance, how consistent a player is, may be just as important as base performance. Being … Continue reading Who is the Most Consistent QB in 2020?