We selected 12/16 match-ups last week, and the model correlated at 60.3% to outcomes (NOT point total/ATS, that hit 37%). There are still a few key injury adjustments to be made to this week’s final selections (DET and NYG to name a few), but about 90% of the alterations have been accounted for/adjusted in the … Continue reading NFL Week 15 Picks
NFL 2020 Defensive Deployment FootballPredictionSystems knows the value of understanding a defense’s coverage tendency, and the corresponding expected QB performance vs. said coverage. FPS leverages this information to profit greatly from finding value in the prop/derivative market (remember the +1100 we advised for Aaron Rodgers during the playoffs) that most books don’t account for. However, … Continue reading 2020 NFL Coverage Elasticity
Ryan’s Season Totals Best Bets: 27-16, Up 1358% Another winning week, yet I have to say it still stung knowing we were .5 points away from a 3-0 week! Either way, let’s look at this week’s picks: Best Bet #1: Washington Football Team vs Dallas Cowboys OVER 46.5 (-105)This play starts in one of our … Continue reading NFL Football Best Bets: Week 16 (2021)
Ryan’s Season Totals Best Bets: 34-23-1, Up 1458% Strong week for us to kick off playoff betting, crushing the Derek Carr UNDER 35.5 yards longest completion prop (26 was his long) and the OVER 43 points for the Patriots/Bills game (64, almost winning by 50% more points). So we’re hoping to capitalize on that momentum … Continue reading NFL Football Best Bets: Divisional Playoff Weekend (2021)
Ryan’s Season Totals Best Bets: 16-9, Up 858% Last week brought us a mixed bag, going 1-1 on the weekly plays. We feel good about our selections this week, finding a few plays where our models match our subjective gut (the “holy grail” for handicappers). Let’s jump right in. Best Bet #1: Kansas City Chiefs … Continue reading NFL Football Best Bets: Week 10 (2021)
