WR vs. CB Matchups & Advice: Week 15 (2022 Fantasy Football)

WR vs. CB Matchups & Advice: Week 15 (2022 Fantasy Football)

If you haven’t started your league’s fantasy playoffs in week 14, you’re definitely in the thick of it now. If you’re new to the series, the purpose of this piece is to help you navigate a tricky landscape, ignore the noise from talking heads and hone in on PREDICTIVE variables to help you determine your WR lineup. 

Let’s jump right in.

Week 14 Results:

Although we went 2-2 with our selections, we netted you about 10 points, so we’ll call that a WIN.

NameFP SelectionProjectedActualNet
*Nico CollinsSTART
Josh ReynoldsSTART7.116.1+9.0
Christian KirkSTART14.69.5-5.1
Amari CooperSIT14.46.2-8.2
Bradon AiyukSIT11.113.7+2.6


Season Scored Card

Season Record: 49-32

*All stats based on Yahoo Fantasy Football ½ PPR

Week 15 WR vs CB Model Scorecard

Raw NumbersWeekly Rank
SnapsWt.ed Net pprr40 Adv.HT Adv.nPFFwted TotalWt.ed Net pprr40 Adv.HT Adv.nPFFwted TotalAvg. Rk.
CeeDee Lamb57.321.80.003.4711.22151539
Drake London55.
D.K. Metcalf39.
Davante Adams39.916.60.022.987.61110251616
Tee Higgins41.
Stefon Diggs42.
A.J. Brown42.917.40.001.3411.181545418
Mike Williams41.913.
Garrett Wilson66.422.70.040.426.715532020
Chris Olave52.919.80.040.746.536522121
Amon-Ra St. Brown38.
Tyreek Hill39.218.70.00-1.0012.141575224
Treylon Burks42.715.
Christian Watson43.
Terry McLaurin41.313.
Ja’Marr Chase41.017.30.00-0.788.5915721227
Curtis Samuel39.811.50.120.2717.048257127
Justin Jefferson39.613.90.001.794.52515363428
DeVonta Smith42.913.90.000.407.12415541928
Gabriel Davis42.
DeSean Jackson41.016.40.06-2.628.612390929
Darius Slayton39.813.30.001.664.73015413230
Jaylen Waddle39.314.80.00-1.007.91715761431
Allen Lazard38.811.90.005.440.8451546131
Julio Jones40.610.40.023.883.56911123933
Quez Watkins42.413.
Rashid Shaheed38.413.50.00-0.425.92915692635
George Pickens58.
Chris Godwin40.311.
Corey Davis37.710.80.003.352.66415174335
Jauan Jennings40.511.40.001.495.15215442935
DeVante Parker39.310.80.002.843.66315283736
Trenton Irwin41.412.
Jakobi Meyers39.
Isaiah Hodgins42.314.2-0.014.435.2218792836
JuJu Smith-Schuster43.
Zay Jones39.314.
Josh Palmer41.711.
Damiere Byrd39.713.30.00-2.948.23215911338
Noah Brown42.
Michael Pittman Jr.39.611.
Laviska Shenault Jr.39.018.7-0.061.647.5589421738
Demarcus Robinson40.912.
Olamide Zaccheaus39.912.30.00-3.738.64015941040
Tutu Atwell33.013.20.00-1.725.13315833040
Trent Sherfield39.810.
Tyler Lockett38.914.60.00-1.722.01915824841
Brandon Aiyuk40.513.20.01-2.225.03414853141
Terrace Marshall Jr.39.810.00.002.961.87215265241
DeAndre Hopkins41.114.9-
Amari Cooper40.913.70.00-0.071.52715685642
Jahan Dotson51.914.50.00-0.931.32015745742
Michael Gallup42.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine39.710.50.003.48-0.16815147443
Robert Woods39.410.70.001.531.96515434943
Keenan Allen41.512.4-
Marquez Valdes-Scantling42.
Richie James Jr.40.910.70.00-0.614.66715713347
D.J. Chark Jr.
Devin Duvernay40.911.30.00-1.653.55315813847
Mike Evans40.610.9-
Marvin Jones Jr.39.312.20.000.89-2.14215508247
Parris Campbell39.610.
Donovan Peoples-Jones40.911.00.020.98-0.8609487648
Chase Claypool41.
Christian Kirk39.114.70.00-1.34-1.61815808048
Josh Reynolds38.
D.J. Moore39.611.40.00-0.841.14915735849
Nelson Agholor39.
Marquise Goodwin38.912.30.00-2.290.64115876452
Jerry Jeudy39.214.0-0.010.352.12386554753
Adam Thielen39.
Keelan Cole39.
Steven Sims26.74.70.00-4.495.79015952757
Marquise Brown41.011.40.00-2.48-0.15115897357
Dante Pettis41.
Isaiah McKenzie41.812.10.00-2.33-2.44315888458
Brandon Johnson40.
Randall Cobb39.611.1-0.07-1.209.8569178758
A.J. Green41.
Equanimeous St. Brown40.
Bennett Skowronek37.
Justin Watson35.
Van Jefferson39.
Amari Rodgers37.
Diontae Johnson41.49.40.00-3.201.77815935460
Mack Hollins39.910.10.005.75-2.4718528360
Elijah Moore38.09.10.00-1.23-1.08215797763
Kendall Hinton40.59.70.00-2.27-1.77515868164
Jarvis Landry39.912.0-0.23-1.162.24496774666
K.J. Osborn39.86.90.00-0.49-4.88815709266
Phillip Dorsett37.49.20.00-3.18-4.18015928969
David Bell36.87.90.00-1.92-17.28615849670
Alec Pierce43.310.7-0.041.70-4.36688399071
Chris Moore35.39.5-0.090.97-4.67693499177
Ray-Ray McCloud III37.19.9-0.19-5.970.77495966382

*Again thanks to our friends at PFF for the data
**To standardize all variables we are tracking (and make it easier to read) we included a RANK Display, respective of each data point to the right AND sorted by the average rank across variables.


  • Snaps: estimated total drop back snaps a WR will play in the coming matchup
  • Wt.ed Net PPRR: “Weighted Net Fantasy Points/Route Run”. Simply this is the net value of a WR’s PPRR average  vs the DB’s PPRR given up, weighted according to the DB each WR is expected to play. 


  • Say Davante Adams averages 2.0 points/route run
    • DB1 (expected to face 50% of snaps) gives up 3.0 points/route run
    • DB2 (expected to face 30% of snaps) gives up 4.0 points/route run
    • DB3 (expected to face 20% of snaps) gives up 1.0 points/route run

This first model would predict Adams to produce 2.45 points/route run (Adams 2.0 vs. aggregate defenders averages weighted to 2.9)

  • *40 Adv: “40 Yard Dash Advantage” (weighted difference between WR 40 time and DB’s)
  • *HT Adv: “Height Advantage” (same as above, but with height)
  • nPFFwted Total: “Net PFF weighted Total Advantage”. Our core model, similar to the Wt.ed Net PPRR above, it compares the PFF grade between WR and likely DB, weighted by expected snaps he’ll see each respective DB

*Not all WRs and DBs have 40 times, and/or height measurements. When this occurs with ONE party, the model ignores the other (i.e. you need a WR and DB with a 40 time for this datapoint to populate)


For this week we included data points/a model to represent the target share CHANGES given specific circumstances (Blitz, Man) we expect the WR to see, given the opponent’s tendencies. As we’ve noted previously, how a QB operates, and who he targets can change drastically given the defensive scheme, so keeping the data below in consideration for setting your lineup on a weekly basis is key.

NOTE: For Week 15, I spared you the players within +/-2% change, and the chart below ONLY displays players that have a (relatively) strong indication in either direction

A few notes on the data below:

  • ALL stats ignore game scripts of greater than a 16 point differential (either way), the goaline (and from 0-10 yardline) and 4th downs and quarters
  • All % next to a WR represent target SHARE given the circumstance (i.e. Nico Collins is seeing 24% of targets without a blitz, and 62% when blitzed)
  • The first 6 columns represent how the respective WR performs, along with a “bonus” that’s reflective of target share increasing with Blitz (vs. non-Blitz) and Man (vs. Zone), meaning a negative number is not “bad”, but more so that the WR’s target share gets a bump with no Blitz or Zone respectively
  • The middle columns represent the WR’s opponent’s tendencies, along with a (3rd and 5th row in middle section) a metric for how many percentage points above or below league average THAT defense sends blitz/runs Man
  • The last 3 columns give an aggregate of how the WR performs relative to coverage and blitz schemes to expect
PlayerTeamno blitzBLITZzoneMANBLITZ bonusMAN bonusOppBRAnflAVGMRAnflAVGBlitz bonusMan bonus
Terry McLaurinCommanders50%70%47%51%20%4%Giants16%16%3%1%
Garrett WilsonJets31%54%34%54%23%21%Lions9%6%2%1%
Ben SkowronekRams15%27%13%26%13%14%Packers17%6%2%1%
Cooper KuppRams38%58%44%35%20%-9%Packers17%6%3%-1%
Josh PalmerChargers36%17%31%19%-19%-11%Titans-12%-4%2%0%
Marquise BrownCardinals22%46%23%33%25%10%Broncos10%-2%2%0%
Michael Pittman Jr.Colts35%36%36%25%1%-12%Vikings-6%-14%0%2%
Diontae JohnsonSteelers39%34%35%55%-5%21%Panthers6%-7%0%-1%
Elijah MooreJets29%14%24%18%-16%-6%Lions9%6%-1%0%
Alec PierceColts30%19%19%38%-11%19%Vikings-6%-14%1%-3%
Jerry JeudyBroncos28%30%18%40%2%22%Cardinals7%-10%0%-2%
Allen LazardPackers53%29%26%43%-25%17%Rams3%-10%-1%-2%
Nick Westbrook-IkhineTitans26%16%31%4%-10%-26%Chargers3%9%0%-2%
Chris OlaveSaints49%69%24%66%20%42%Falcons-7%-3%-1%-1%
Curtis SamuelCommanders37%-3%30%17%-40%-14%Giants16%16%-6%-2%

*ONLY WRs with > +- 2% Included in chart above
**Thanks to our friends at Sports Info Solutions, and their SIS Database for the info!
***NEW NOTE: the “target share” is not “target ONLY”, but Intended Air Yard share (IAY share) as this gives us a cleaner picture not only of target share, but the potential magnitude of said share
****Players that have played on 2 separate teams in 2022 are excluded (as they blur the percentage shares)

WR Matchups to Target in Week 15

*For the matchup sections below, we refrain from “obvious recommendations” and/or players you are starting no matter what (and the opposite for players recommended to sit)

  • Garrett Wilson

Wilson comes in with both of our models liking his matchup this week. To start, he comes in as our 9th-best base model’s play of the week. And this is not one of those situations where a single variable is “carrying the weight”. He comes in with the #1 best Weighted Points per Route Run (PPRR) grade, 5th best speed advantage and 20th best net PFF grade. Most of this has to do with the expected matchup vs. Jeffrey Okudah (44% expected pass snaps). Wilson is faster (4.38 vs 4.48 40-yard dash) and sports an 81 PFF grade (vs. Okudah’s 64.3). Take that along with the fact Wilson sees a bump in target share vs Man AND Blitz, with the Lions blitzing/deploying man coverage 9% and 6% more than the league average respectively, we love Wilson this week!

  • Josh Palmer

Josh Palmer’s Intended Air Yard share almost doubles vs. “vanilla defenses” (zone/no blitz). This is good news for the young WR as the Titans blitz 12 percentage points less than the league average and play zone 4% points MORE than the league average. Besides this, he boasts a strong “physical advantage” on the week. Palmer comes in with top 25 matchups in both size and speed. Granted he is likely to see a relatively even split between DBs Terrance Mitchell (34%), Roger McCreay (33%) and Amani Hooker (33%), but he has 3 inches of height on all of them (74 inches vs 71 inches).

  • Drake London

I’ll admit our base model always seems to be fond of London’s outlook for any given week, but we have multiple signals pointing up for the rookie WR. Beyond coming in as our 2nd overall matchup grade on the week, Drake sees a marginal bump (33% vs. 38%) in Intended Air Yard (IAY) share when facing man coverage. This is good news as the Saints play man 10% points more Man Coverage than NFL average.

WR Matchups to Avoid in Week 15

  • Chris Godwin

The veteran WR has jumped back to his typical role after a slow start to the year coming off an injury. However, we have noticed a legitimate split in an offense with multiple legitimate WRs: although Godwin sees a 42% IAY ownership when facing the blitz, that drops to 19% when NOT blitzed. As the Bengals bring pressure 5% points less than the league average, not to mention the oddity of Godwin having the rare split of “wanting a zone + blitz” and the Bengals being more of a man team, schematically this is not a good spot for him. Not to mention we expect him to face Mike Hilton (77% expected pass snaps). Godwin’s .36 fantasy points per route run will likely be dragged down by Hilton’s .19.

  • DeAndre Hopkins

Hopkins is typically “immune” to whatever DB you throw at him, but relatively speaking, this may not be the best week (at least) to add him to your DFS lineup. It looks like he will face Damarri Mathis for most of the game (71% expected pass snaps). Mathis has a clear speed advantage vs the veteran WR (4.57 vs 4.39) AND we’re looking at a likely “schematic dip”. That is, Hopkins sees more IAY (47 vs 39 percent) when NOT blitzed and a much bigger chunk vs Man coverage (I’ll admit an odd split, guessing he “loves” the drop 8 Cover 1 type sets) earning 51% IAY vs Man, but 36% vs. zone. Although these data points are mutually exclusive, this doesn’t exactly bode well as the Broncos play a bit more zone (2% more than league average), yet are blitz-heavy bringing 10% more pressure than league average.

We hope this piece helps you as you move in during the fantasy playoff weekend! See you back next week!

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