WR vs. CB Matchups & Advice: Week 15 (2022 Fantasy Football)

WR vs. CB Matchups & Advice: Week 15 (2022 Fantasy Football)

If you haven’t started your league’s fantasy playoffs in week 14, you’re definitely in the thick of it now. If you’re new to the series, the purpose of this piece is to help you navigate a tricky landscape, ignore the noise from talking heads and hone in on PREDICTIVE variables to help you determine your WR lineup. 

Let’s jump right in.

Week 14 Results:

Although we went 2-2 with our selections, we netted you about 10 points, so we’ll call that a WIN.

Name	FP Selection	Projected	Actual	Net
*Nico Collins	START	–	–	–
Josh Reynolds	START	7.1	16.1	+9.0
Christian Kirk	START	14.6	9.5	-5.1
Amari Cooper	SIT	14.4	6.2	-8.2
Bradon Aiyuk	SIT	11.1	13.7	+2.6

*DNP 

Season Scored Card

Season Record: 49-32

*All stats based on Yahoo Fantasy Football ½ PPR

Week 15 WR vs CB Model Scorecard

		Raw Numbers				Weekly Rank
	Snaps	Wt.ed Net pprr	40 Adv.	HT Adv.	nPFFwted Total	Wt.ed Net pprr	40 Adv.	HT Adv.	nPFFwted Total	Avg. Rk.
CeeDee Lamb	57.3	21.8	0.00	3.47	11.2	2	15	15	3	9
Drake London	55.1	17.0	0.00	3.88	10.9	10	15	13	5	11
D.K. Metcalf	39.2	13.8	0.00	4.11	8.7	26	15	10	8	15
Davante Adams	39.9	16.6	0.02	2.98	7.6	11	10	25	16	16
Tee Higgins	41.2	16.0	0.00	3.14	7.5	13	15	20	18	17
Stefon Diggs	42.1	18.1	0.05	0.81	10.8	7	4	51	6	17
A.J. Brown	42.9	17.4	0.00	1.34	11.1	8	15	45	4	18
Mike Williams	41.9	13.6	0.00	5.00	6.0	28	15	6	24	18
Garrett Wilson	66.4	22.7	0.04	0.42	6.7	1	5	53	20	20
Chris Olave	52.9	19.8	0.04	0.74	6.5	3	6	52	21	21
Amon-Ra St. Brown	38.1	15.5	0.00	1.68	7.9	14	15	40	15	21
Tyreek Hill	39.2	18.7	0.00	-1.00	12.1	4	15	75	2	24
Treylon Burks	42.7	15.4	0.00	2.28	3.8	15	15	31	36	24
Christian Watson	43.0	18.6	0.00	5.34	-0.4	6	15	5	75	25
Terry McLaurin	41.3	13.3	0.03	0.26	8.5	31	7	58	11	27
Ja’Marr Chase	41.0	17.3	0.00	-0.78	8.5	9	15	72	12	27
Curtis Samuel	39.8	11.5	0.12	0.27	17.0	48	2	57	1	27
Justin Jefferson	39.6	13.9	0.00	1.79	4.5	25	15	36	34	28
DeVonta Smith	42.9	13.9	0.00	0.40	7.1	24	15	54	19	28
Gabriel Davis	42.0	11.8	0.00	3.92	2.9	46	15	11	41	28
DeSean Jackson	41.0	16.4	0.06	-2.62	8.6	12	3	90	9	29
Darius Slayton	39.8	13.3	0.00	1.66	4.7	30	15	41	32	30
Jaylen Waddle	39.3	14.8	0.00	-1.00	7.9	17	15	76	14	31
Allen Lazard	38.8	11.9	0.00	5.44	0.8	45	15	4	61	31
Julio Jones	40.6	10.4	0.02	3.88	3.5	69	11	12	39	33
Quez Watkins	42.4	13.1	0.01	0.12	5.9	35	13	61	25	34
Rashid Shaheed	38.4	13.5	0.00	-0.42	5.9	29	15	69	26	35
George Pickens	58.1	12.8	0.00	1.72	1.8	36	15	38	50	35
Chris Godwin	40.3	11.3	0.00	3.18	1.8	55	15	18	51	35
Corey Davis	37.7	10.8	0.00	3.35	2.6	64	15	17	43	35
Jauan Jennings	40.5	11.4	0.00	1.49	5.1	52	15	44	29	35
DeVante Parker	39.3	10.8	0.00	2.84	3.6	63	15	28	37	36
Trenton Irwin	41.4	12.5	0.00	1.03	2.6	37	15	46	45	36
Jakobi Meyers	39.1	11.4	0.00	3.15	0.8	50	15	19	60	36
Isaiah Hodgins	42.3	14.2	-0.01	4.43	5.2	21	87	9	28	36
JuJu Smith-Schuster	43.0	11.0	0.00	2.80	2.8	59	15	29	42	36
Zay Jones	39.3	14.1	0.00	1.03	0.3	22	15	47	66	38
Josh Palmer	41.7	11.0	0.00	3.00	1.6	58	15	23	55	38
Damiere Byrd	39.7	13.3	0.00	-2.94	8.2	32	15	91	13	38
Noah Brown	42.1	11.0	0.00	3.06	1.8	61	15	22	53	38
Michael Pittman Jr.	39.6	11.3	0.02	3.08	0.4	54	12	21	65	38
Laviska Shenault Jr.	39.0	18.7	-0.06	1.64	7.5	5	89	42	17	38
Demarcus Robinson	40.9	12.4	0.00	0.26	3.2	39	15	59	40	38
Olamide Zaccheaus	39.9	12.3	0.00	-3.73	8.6	40	15	94	10	40
Tutu Atwell	33.0	13.2	0.00	-1.72	5.1	33	15	83	30	40
Trent Sherfield	39.8	10.1	0.00	2.00	2.6	70	15	33	44	41
Tyler Lockett	38.9	14.6	0.00	-1.72	2.0	19	15	82	48	41
Brandon Aiyuk	40.5	13.2	0.01	-2.22	5.0	34	14	85	31	41
Terrace Marshall Jr.	39.8	10.0	0.00	2.96	1.8	72	15	26	52	41
DeAndre Hopkins	41.1	14.9	-0.13	2.16	6.2	16	94	32	23	41
Amari Cooper	40.9	13.7	0.00	-0.07	1.5	27	15	68	56	42
Jahan Dotson	51.9	14.5	0.00	-0.93	1.3	20	15	74	57	42
Michael Gallup	42.1	11.0	0.00	1.96	0.8	57	15	35	62	42
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine	39.7	10.5	0.00	3.48	-0.1	68	15	14	74	43
Robert Woods	39.4	10.7	0.00	1.53	1.9	65	15	43	49	43
Keenan Allen	41.5	12.4	-0.07	3.00	6.4	38	92	23	22	44
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	42.8	8.0	0.00	5.64	-1.1	85	15	3	78	45
Richie James Jr.	40.9	10.7	0.00	-0.61	4.6	67	15	71	33	47
D.J. Chark Jr.	38.8	9.3	0.00	4.67	-2.6	79	15	8	85	47
Devin Duvernay	40.9	11.3	0.00	-1.65	3.5	53	15	81	38	47
Mike Evans	40.6	10.9	-0.06	6.08	4.1	62	90	1	35	47
Marvin Jones Jr.	39.3	12.2	0.00	0.89	-2.1	42	15	50	82	47
Parris Campbell	39.6	10.0	0.25	0.19	1.1	73	1	60	59	48
Donovan Peoples-Jones	40.9	11.0	0.02	0.98	-0.8	60	9	48	76	48
Chase Claypool	41.7	8.9	0.00	4.89	-3.8	83	15	7	88	48
Christian Kirk	39.1	14.7	0.00	-1.34	-1.6	18	15	80	80	48
Josh Reynolds	38.8	9.4	0.00	3.44	-3.6	77	15	16	87	49
D.J. Moore	39.6	11.4	0.00	-0.84	1.1	49	15	73	58	49
Nelson Agholor	39.1	11.5	0.03	0.09	-1.2	47	8	62	79	49
Marquise Goodwin	38.9	12.3	0.00	-2.29	0.6	41	15	87	64	52
Jerry Jeudy	39.2	14.0	-0.01	0.35	2.1	23	86	55	47	53
Adam Thielen	39.8	9.1	0.00	2.54	-2.7	81	15	30	86	53
Keelan Cole	39.9	6.0	0.00	2.96	-6.6	89	15	27	94	56
Steven Sims	26.7	4.7	0.00	-4.49	5.7	90	15	95	27	57
Marquise Brown	41.0	11.4	0.00	-2.48	-0.1	51	15	89	73	57
Dante Pettis	41.7	8.2	0.00	1.75	-5.6	84	15	37	93	57
Isaiah McKenzie	41.8	12.1	0.00	-2.33	-2.4	43	15	88	84	58
Brandon Johnson	40.2	7.4	0.00	1.98	-6.7	87	15	34	95	58
Randall Cobb	39.6	11.1	-0.07	-1.20	9.8	56	91	78	7	58
A.J. Green	41.0	0.5	0.00	0.31	0.0	91	15	56	72	59
Equanimeous St. Brown	40.7	0.0	0.00	0.00	0.0	92	15	63	67	59
Bennett Skowronek	37.3	0.0	0.00	0.00	0.0	92	15	63	67	59
Justin Watson	35.4	0.0	0.00	0.00	0.0	92	15	63	67	59
Van Jefferson	39.0	0.0	0.00	0.00	0.0	92	15	63	67	59
Amari Rodgers	37.1	0.0	0.00	0.00	0.0	92	15	63	67	59
Diontae Johnson	41.4	9.4	0.00	-3.20	1.7	78	15	93	54	60
Mack Hollins	39.9	10.1	0.00	5.75	-2.4	71	85	2	83	60
Elijah Moore	38.0	9.1	0.00	-1.23	-1.0	82	15	79	77	63
Kendall Hinton	40.5	9.7	0.00	-2.27	-1.7	75	15	86	81	64
Jarvis Landry	39.9	12.0	-0.23	-1.16	2.2	44	96	77	46	66
K.J. Osborn	39.8	6.9	0.00	-0.49	-4.8	88	15	70	92	66
Phillip Dorsett	37.4	9.2	0.00	-3.18	-4.1	80	15	92	89	69
David Bell	36.8	7.9	0.00	-1.92	-17.2	86	15	84	96	70
Alec Pierce	43.3	10.7	-0.04	1.70	-4.3	66	88	39	90	71
Chris Moore	35.3	9.5	-0.09	0.97	-4.6	76	93	49	91	77
Ray-Ray McCloud III	37.1	9.9	-0.19	-5.97	0.7	74	95	96	63	82

*Again thanks to our friends at PFF for the data
**To standardize all variables we are tracking (and make it easier to read) we included a RANK Display, respective of each data point to the right AND sorted by the average rank across variables.

Legend

• Snaps: estimated total drop back snaps a WR will play in the coming matchup
• Wt.ed Net PPRR: “Weighted Net Fantasy Points/Route Run”. Simply this is the net value of a WR’s PPRR average  vs the DB’s PPRR given up, weighted according to the DB each WR is expected to play. 

Example:

• Say Davante Adams averages 2.0 points/route run
  • DB1 (expected to face 50% of snaps) gives up 3.0 points/route run
  • DB2 (expected to face 30% of snaps) gives up 4.0 points/route run
  • DB3 (expected to face 20% of snaps) gives up 1.0 points/route run

This first model would predict Adams to produce 2.45 points/route run (Adams 2.0 vs. aggregate defenders averages weighted to 2.9)

• *40 Adv: “40 Yard Dash Advantage” (weighted difference between WR 40 time and DB’s)
• *HT Adv: “Height Advantage” (same as above, but with height)
• nPFFwted Total: “Net PFF weighted Total Advantage”. Our core model, similar to the Wt.ed Net PPRR above, it compares the PFF grade between WR and likely DB, weighted by expected snaps he’ll see each respective DB

*Not all WRs and DBs have 40 times, and/or height measurements. When this occurs with ONE party, the model ignores the other (i.e. you need a WR and DB with a 40 time for this datapoint to populate)

SECONDARY / BONUS CHART:

For this week we included data points/a model to represent the target share CHANGES given specific circumstances (Blitz, Man) we expect the WR to see, given the opponent’s tendencies. As we’ve noted previously, how a QB operates, and who he targets can change drastically given the defensive scheme, so keeping the data below in consideration for setting your lineup on a weekly basis is key.

NOTE: For Week 15, I spared you the players within +/-2% change, and the chart below ONLY displays players that have a (relatively) strong indication in either direction

A few notes on the data below:

• ALL stats ignore game scripts of greater than a 16 point differential (either way), the goaline (and from 0-10 yardline) and 4th downs and quarters
• All % next to a WR represent target SHARE given the circumstance (i.e. Nico Collins is seeing 24% of targets without a blitz, and 62% when blitzed)

• The first 6 columns represent how the respective WR performs, along with a “bonus” that’s reflective of target share increasing with Blitz (vs. non-Blitz) and Man (vs. Zone), meaning a negative number is not “bad”, but more so that the WR’s target share gets a bump with no Blitz or Zone respectively
• The middle columns represent the WR’s opponent’s tendencies, along with a (3rd and 5th row in middle section) a metric for how many percentage points above or below league average THAT defense sends blitz/runs Man
• The last 3 columns give an aggregate of how the WR performs relative to coverage and blitz schemes to expect

Player	Team	no blitz	BLITZ	zone	MAN	BLITZ bonus	MAN bonus		Opp	BRAnflAVG	MRAnflAVG		Blitz bonus	Man bonus
Terry McLaurin	Commanders	50%	70%	47%	51%	20%	4%		Giants	16%	16%		3%	1%
Garrett Wilson	Jets	31%	54%	34%	54%	23%	21%		Lions	9%	6%		2%	1%
Ben Skowronek	Rams	15%	27%	13%	26%	13%	14%		Packers	17%	6%		2%	1%
Cooper Kupp	Rams	38%	58%	44%	35%	20%	-9%		Packers	17%	6%		3%	-1%
Josh Palmer	Chargers	36%	17%	31%	19%	-19%	-11%		Titans	-12%	-4%		2%	0%
Marquise Brown	Cardinals	22%	46%	23%	33%	25%	10%		Broncos	10%	-2%		2%	0%
Michael Pittman Jr.	Colts	35%	36%	36%	25%	1%	-12%		Vikings	-6%	-14%		0%	2%
Diontae Johnson	Steelers	39%	34%	35%	55%	-5%	21%		Panthers	6%	-7%		0%	-1%
Elijah Moore	Jets	29%	14%	24%	18%	-16%	-6%		Lions	9%	6%		-1%	0%
Alec Pierce	Colts	30%	19%	19%	38%	-11%	19%		Vikings	-6%	-14%		1%	-3%
Jerry Jeudy	Broncos	28%	30%	18%	40%	2%	22%		Cardinals	7%	-10%		0%	-2%
Allen Lazard	Packers	53%	29%	26%	43%	-25%	17%		Rams	3%	-10%		-1%	-2%
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine	Titans	26%	16%	31%	4%	-10%	-26%		Chargers	3%	9%		0%	-2%
Chris Olave	Saints	49%	69%	24%	66%	20%	42%		Falcons	-7%	-3%		-1%	-1%
Curtis Samuel	Commanders	37%	-3%	30%	17%	-40%	-14%		Giants	16%	16%		-6%	-2%

*ONLY WRs with > +- 2% Included in chart above
**Thanks to our friends at Sports Info Solutions, and their SIS Database for the info!
***NEW NOTE: the “target share” is not “target ONLY”, but Intended Air Yard share (IAY share) as this gives us a cleaner picture not only of target share, but the potential magnitude of said share
****Players that have played on 2 separate teams in 2022 are excluded (as they blur the percentage shares)

WR Matchups to Target in Week 15

*For the matchup sections below, we refrain from “obvious recommendations” and/or players you are starting no matter what (and the opposite for players recommended to sit)

• Garrett Wilson

Wilson comes in with both of our models liking his matchup this week. To start, he comes in as our 9th-best base model’s play of the week. And this is not one of those situations where a single variable is “carrying the weight”. He comes in with the #1 best Weighted Points per Route Run (PPRR) grade, 5th best speed advantage and 20th best net PFF grade. Most of this has to do with the expected matchup vs. Jeffrey Okudah (44% expected pass snaps). Wilson is faster (4.38 vs 4.48 40-yard dash) and sports an 81 PFF grade (vs. Okudah’s 64.3). Take that along with the fact Wilson sees a bump in target share vs Man AND Blitz, with the Lions blitzing/deploying man coverage 9% and 6% more than the league average respectively, we love Wilson this week!

• Josh Palmer

Josh Palmer’s Intended Air Yard share almost doubles vs. “vanilla defenses” (zone/no blitz). This is good news for the young WR as the Titans blitz 12 percentage points less than the league average and play zone 4% points MORE than the league average. Besides this, he boasts a strong “physical advantage” on the week. Palmer comes in with top 25 matchups in both size and speed. Granted he is likely to see a relatively even split between DBs Terrance Mitchell (34%), Roger McCreay (33%) and Amani Hooker (33%), but he has 3 inches of height on all of them (74 inches vs 71 inches).

• Drake London

I’ll admit our base model always seems to be fond of London’s outlook for any given week, but we have multiple signals pointing up for the rookie WR. Beyond coming in as our 2nd overall matchup grade on the week, Drake sees a marginal bump (33% vs. 38%) in Intended Air Yard (IAY) share when facing man coverage. This is good news as the Saints play man 10% points more Man Coverage than NFL average.

WR Matchups to Avoid in Week 15

• Chris Godwin

The veteran WR has jumped back to his typical role after a slow start to the year coming off an injury. However, we have noticed a legitimate split in an offense with multiple legitimate WRs: although Godwin sees a 42% IAY ownership when facing the blitz, that drops to 19% when NOT blitzed. As the Bengals bring pressure 5% points less than the league average, not to mention the oddity of Godwin having the rare split of “wanting a zone + blitz” and the Bengals being more of a man team, schematically this is not a good spot for him. Not to mention we expect him to face Mike Hilton (77% expected pass snaps). Godwin’s .36 fantasy points per route run will likely be dragged down by Hilton’s .19.

• DeAndre Hopkins

Hopkins is typically “immune” to whatever DB you throw at him, but relatively speaking, this may not be the best week (at least) to add him to your DFS lineup. It looks like he will face Damarri Mathis for most of the game (71% expected pass snaps). Mathis has a clear speed advantage vs the veteran WR (4.57 vs 4.39) AND we’re looking at a likely “schematic dip”. That is, Hopkins sees more IAY (47 vs 39 percent) when NOT blitzed and a much bigger chunk vs Man coverage (I’ll admit an odd split, guessing he “loves” the drop 8 Cover 1 type sets) earning 51% IAY vs Man, but 36% vs. zone. Although these data points are mutually exclusive, this doesn’t exactly bode well as the Broncos play a bit more zone (2% more than league average), yet are blitz-heavy bringing 10% more pressure than league average.

We hope this piece helps you as you move in during the fantasy playoff weekend! See you back next week!