When using data to predict outcomes, the larger the sample the better. With that, season long futures bets allow for more data to be considered than any game-by-game position. And of all stat futures you can bet in football, sacks COULD be the easiest to leverage advanced data to gain an edge:
- Use of a “absent” Strength of Schedule (so far vs. upcoming)
- Advanced stats to cut through the “noise”
- Opportunity based on rate stats and BYE Weeks
For starters, strength of opposing pass blocker/OL as a whole, is tough to get a hold of online, and unlikely being priced in by the big sports books. Then, you consider that pass rushing pressure rates are MUCH stickier than ACTUAL sack rates. In other words, players that have generated pressures, yet haven’t gotten to the QB are likely to get “luckier” later on in the season (and vice versa). Finally, some pass rushers have more/less expected pass snaps on the horizon (not to mention some players that have played 7 games, some 8) that I doubt the sportsbooks are considering at scale.
We’re going to consider all of these variables to solve: What is the most profitable EV bet for Sack Futures in 2022.
*You can see the full dataset here. Thanks to the SIS Data hub for the core stats.
Notes:
-Under Opportunities, “Est Remaining Pass Snaps” is calculated by the player’s pass rush rate AND remaining games
–Advanced Stats: Sack / Press% is the rate a pressure is turning into a sack and Press Rate is the Pressure %
–PSRH SOS stands for Pass Rush Strength of Schedule, first column is previous SOS, second column is upcoming and last column represents the ranking change (higher is better for the PSRHer)
Takeaways
-Of the Favorites, there’s good reason to believe Myles Garrett will be the 2022 NFL Sack Leader. Beyond a legit talent advantage over just about all edge rushers in the league, he has a slightly easier schedule, he still has 10 games left to play (while only being a 1/2 sack behind the leader). Take this, along with a 17% pressure rate, despite ONLY a 21% “sack conversion rate”, he still has value at +500.
–Max Crosby (+1400) may be the most profitable EV Bet here. When ONLY looking at pass rushers that are options (based on Draft Kings Sportsbook 11/5/22), he’s only played 7 games (but has 6 sacks) and has the 4th worst Pressure to Sack Conversion (21%), despite a good 12% Pressure Rate. In addition, he’s getting a bump in SOS, with a schedule that should be 13% easier for pass rushers (based on ESPN’s PBWR).
-As a longshot, Danielle Hunter is interesting. His biggest roadblock is his “starting Sack line”, being at 3 (5 behind the current leader). However, he and the Vikings have the league’s best change in PBLCK SOS, going from a top 12 schedule to one that drops to 20th. And despite having a meager 9% pressure rate, he’s only converting 14% of those into sacks (8th worst, which is good for future sacks). On top of this he has 330 expected pass rush snaps left this season (4th most). At +6000, and you want a solid longshot bet, Hunter may be worth it.