WR vs. CB Matchups & Advice: Week 9 (2022 Fantasy Football)

WR vs. CB Matchups & Advice: Week 9 (2022 Fantasy Football)

We are officially at the halfway point of the season. As we have noted before between the extreme levels of parity across the board, and offensive production being on a downswing, it’s more important than ever to find value in our WR selections for the week. The hope is the models below will help you get there. Let’s jump right in.

Week 8 Results:

After a very strong week 7, we came back to earth with our first losing week on the season. 

Name	FP Selection	Projected	Actual	Net
Garrett Wilson	START	10.4	17.5	+7.1(W)
Gabriel Davis	START	12.8	5.5	-7.3 (L)
Drake London	START	10.2	7.1	-3.1 (L)
*Rashod Batemen	SIT	*	*
Terry McLaurin	SIT	12.6	16.6	+4.0 (L)

*Injured

Season Scored Card

Season Record: 33-20

*All stats based on Yahoo Fantasy Football ½ PPR

Week 9 WR vs CB Model Scorecard

		Raw Numbers	Weekly Rank
	Snaps	Wt.ed Net pprr	40 Adv.	HT Adv.	nPFFwted Total	Wt.ed Net pprr	40 Adv.	HT Adv.	nPFFwted Total	Avg. Rk.
Drake London	53.5	18.6	0.00	4.16	8.0	7	20	9	13	12
D.K. Metcalf	39.3	14.0	0.07	3.29	13.8	23	13	18	2	14
Chris Olave	52.9	19.6	0.07	1.55	7.7	3	14	39	14	18
Alec Pierce	41.1	11.7	0.09	4.04	6.5	41	8	11	16	19
A.J. Brown	42.9	17.2	0.00	1.93	8.5	12	20	35	11	20
Tee Higgins	41.0	12.8	0.00	4.72	4.5	31	20	5	27	21
Justin Jefferson	39.9	14.7	0.00	1.17	9.3	19	20	42	7	22
Mike Evans	56.0	22.8	-0.02	5.20	5.2	1	65	3	23	23
Allen Lazard	39.1	17.2	-0.04	4.59	9.2	11	68	6	9	24
Equanimeous St. Brown	41.2	10.6	0.04	5.55	3.9	48	15	1	31	24
JuJu Smith-Schuster	59.2	19.6	0.01	2.00	2.9	4	19	32	41	24
Tyreek Hill	39.6	19.4	0.00	-1.74	12.8	5	20	68	4	24
Julio Jones	40.6	14.7	0.09	3.12	2.2	21	9	22	46	25
Romeo Doubs	52.7	19.0	0.00	1.16	4.1	6	20	43	30	25
Jakobi Meyers	39.1	14.7	-0.05	4.25	13.2	20	69	8	3	25
Sammy Watkins	38.3	13.8	0.04	-0.33	15.4	25	16	59	1	25
Garrett Wilson	43.4	13.3	0.12	0.59	6.4	28	6	49	18	25
Davante Adams	40.1	14.2	0.00	1.94	5.0	22	20	34	25	25
Cody Hollister	38.8	10.4	0.00	3.72	5.3	53	20	13	21	27
Tyler Lockett	39.0	14.9	0.09	-2.28	8.3	17	7	71	12	27
Tre’Quan Smith	40.4	13.9	-0.01	3.14	10.9	24	58	21	5	27
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	41.4	10.5	0.17	5.00	-0.1	50	4	4	54	28
Jaylen Waddle	39.8	16.9	0.00	-1.79	9.0	13	20	69	10	28
Amon-Ra St. Brown	37.6	14.9	0.00	-0.28	6.3	16	20	58	19	28
Curtis Samuel	39.5	12.1	0.24	-0.66	6.9	38	2	60	15	29
Damiere Byrd	40.0	20.1	0.00	-1.70	4.9	2	20	67	26	29
Michael Pittman Jr.	40.1	12.1	-0.01	5.40	6.5	37	62	2	17	30
Tyler Boyd	41.1	13.4	-0.02	2.94	10.6	27	63	23	6	30
Mack Hollins	40.0	10.7	0.00	4.49	2.1	45	20	7	47	30
Terrace Marshall Jr.	38.8	10.1	0.00	3.83	3.0	56	20	12	39	32
DeVonta Smith	43.0	12.7	0.00	0.73	4.5	32	20	47	28	32
Adam Thielen	40.1	10.7	0.00	1.57	5.1	46	20	38	24	32
Corey Davis	37.9	10.4	0.00	3.15	3.2	52	20	20	36	32
Keenan Allen	42.8	18.3	-0.02	2.00	4.3	8	64	31	29	33
Parris Campbell	40.1	9.7	0.25	2.20	2.8	59	1	30	43	33
Terry McLaurin	55.8	15.6	0.14	-0.99	-0.2	14	5	61	55	34
Devin Duvernay	41.6	14.9	-0.01	-0.26	9.2	18	59	57	8	36
Mecole Hardman	41.2	13.0	0.19	-1.00	1.8	29	3	62	49	36
Darnell Mooney	42.0	12.5	0.08	-0.06	2.5	35	12	55	45	37
Marvin Jones Jr.	39.4	9.5	0.00	3.34	0.6	60	20	17	52	37
Stefon Diggs	42.2	17.9	0.00	0.12	3.3	10	55	51	34	38
Christian Kirk	39.3	12.6	-0.01	2.21	3.5	33	60	29	33	39
Josh Palmer	41.8	11.3	0.00	2.00	-2.1	43	20	32	60	39
Zay Jones	39.5	10.5	0.00	3.56	3.1	49	56	14	38	39
Cooper Kupp	39.2	15.1	-0.22	2.76	3.0	15	76	26	40	39
Chris Godwin	40.4	12.8	0.01	0.43	-4.6	30	17	50	65	41
Hunter Renfrow	40.0	9.7	0.00	0.10	3.2	58	20	52	35	41
Olamide Zaccheaus	40.2	13.7	0.00	-2.35	1.8	26	20	73	48	42
K.J. Osborn	40.2	9.0	0.00	-0.25	3.7	63	20	56	32	43
Trent Sherfield	40.5	8.8	0.00	1.28	0.7	64	20	41	51	44
D.J. Moore	38.5	12.2	0.00	-1.14	5.6	36	57	64	20	44
Cam Sims	41.0	6.3	0.00	4.09	-11.4	75	20	10	74	45
Demarcus Robinson	41.5	11.4	-0.11	0.86	5.3	42	74	46	22	46
Josh Reynolds	38.4	10.4	-0.04	3.37	0.4	51	67	16	53	47
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine	38.7	8.2	0.00	1.14	-1.1	67	20	44	58	47
Isaiah McKenzie	41.5	12.6	0.01	-3.23	-8.4	34	18	75	70	49
Rondale Moore	41.3	10.7	0.00	-6.38	-0.4	44	20	78	56	50
Kendrick Bourne	54.8	12.0	-0.09	2.65	-1.1	39	73	27	59	50
Brandin Cooks	38.1	9.3	0.09	-1.37	-3.3	61	11	65	64	50
DeAndre Hopkins	42.5	18.2	-0.25	-2.31	2.9	9	78	72	42	50
Braxton Berrios	37.8	8.1	0.00	-2.18	2.6	69	20	70	44	51
Kalif Raymond	38.1	9.8	0.00	-4.11	1.1	57	20	77	50	51
Mike Thomas	40.9	5.4	0.00	1.53	-6.1	77	20	40	69	52
Gabriel Davis	42.0	10.4	-0.06	3.42	-4.7	54	71	15	67	52
Nelson Agholor	39.1	10.6	-0.01	1.59	-2.4	47	61	37	62	52
DeAndre Carter	42.0	10.2	0.00	-4.00	-0.7	55	20	76	57	52
Robert Woods	38.2	11.9	-0.06	-1.07	3.2	40	70	63	37	53
James Proche	41.6	8.6	0.00	0.62	-13.3	66	20	48	76	53
Van Jefferson	39.8	4.1	0.00	0.89	-8.6	78	20	45	71	54
Phillip Dorsett	38.2	7.4	0.09	-1.42	-6.0	71	10	66	68	54
D’Wayne Eskridge	39.0	9.2	0.00	-2.38	-2.2	62	20	74	61	54
Shi Smith	38.9	6.4	0.00	0.10	-13.3	73	20	53	75	55
Chase Claypool	42.2	6.4	0.00	0.00	-20.2	74	20	54	78	57
Marquez Callaway	40.5	8.8	-0.08	2.36	-2.4	65	72	28	63	57
Chris Moore	38.0	7.4	-0.13	3.19	-11.2	70	75	19	72	59
Allen Robinson II	39.7	8.2	-0.24	2.78	-4.6	68	77	25	66	59
Quez Watkins	42.4	6.6	0.00	1.63	-16.2	72	54	36	77	60
A.J. Green	42.4	5.7	-0.03	2.82	-11.3	76	66	24	73	60

*Again thanks to our friends at PFF for the data
**To standardize all variables we are tracking (and make it easier to read) we included a RANK Display, respective of each data point to the right AND sorted by the average rank across variables.

Legend

• Snaps: estimated total drop back snaps a WR will play in the coming matchup
• Wt.ed Net PPRR: “Weighted Net Fantasy Points/Route Run”. Simply this is the net value of a WR’s PPRR average  vs the DB’s PPRR given up, weighted according to the DB each WR is expected to play. 

Example:

• Say Davante Adams averages 2.0 points/route run
  • DB1 (expected to face 50% of snaps) gives up 3.0 points/route run
  • DB2 (expected to face 30% of snaps) gives up 4.0 points/route run
  • DB3 (expected to face 20% of snaps) gives up 1.0 points/route run

This first model would predict Adams to produce 2.45 points/route run (Adams 2.0 vs. aggregate defenders averages weighted to 2.9)

• *40 Adv: “40 Yard Dash Advantage” (weighted difference between WR 40 time and DB’s)
• *HT Adv: “Height Advantage” (same as above, but with height)
• nPFFwted Total: “Net PFF weighted Total Advantage”. Our core model, similar to the Wt.ed Net PPRR above, it compares the PFF grade between WR and likely DB, weighted by expected snaps he’ll see each respective DB

*Not all WRs and DBs have 40 times, and/or height measurements. When this occurs with ONE party, the model ignores the other (i.e. you need a WR and DB with a 40 time for this datapoint to populate)

BONUS CHART:

With 8 weeks of data its time to start looking at coverage situations. Given how elastic certain DCs are with their schemes, not to mention the lack of predictability when it comes to DB performance, we find it best to “batch” coverages by:

• Man (M) no blitz (Cover 0, 1 with 4 or less rushers)
• Man BLITZ (Cover 0, 1 with 5 or more rushers)
• Zone (Z) no blitz (Cover 2, 3, 4 or 6 with 4 or less rushers)
• Zone BLITZ (Cover 2, 3, 4 or 6 with 5 or more rushers)

Then we run a comparison on Target SHARE CHANGE among those 4 categories. This is a slight, purposeful change from last week as target share is more indicative of how a QB operates given these circumstances. In other words, we want to find “who he goes to when blitzed”. The target share will get us closer there.

Notes

• The first 6 columns represent how THAT WR performs
• The 7th-9th columns represent how much this week’s opponent runs Man (vs Zone) and Blitz (vs. not) compared to league average, in percentage points
• The last 3 columns give an aggregate of how the WR performs relative to coverage and blitz schemes to expect

		WR Target Share CHANGES	Opponent
Player	Team	MAN	ZONE	MAN BONUS	BLITZ	NOBLITZ	BLITZ BONUS	Opp	MAN Rate (ovr avg)	Blitz Rate (ovr avg)
Rashod Bateman	Ravens	27%	25%	2%	15%	45%	-30%	Saints	14%	-11%
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	Chiefs	33%	37%	-4%	11%	47%	-36%	Titans	-2%	-9%
Christian Watson	Packers	5%	6%	-1%	17%	0%	17%	Lions	7%	14%
Kalif Raymond	Lions	16%	25%	-9%	30%	17%	13%	Packers	14%	17%
Davante Adams	Raiders	57%	52%	5%	75%	44%	31%	Jaguars	0%	4%
Allen Lazard	Packers	32%	28%	4%	37%	28%	9%	Lions	7%	14%
Breshad Perriman	Buccaneers	19%	8%	10%	24%	9%	15%	Rams	-11%	8%
DeAndre Carter	Chargers	10%	18%	-8%	7%	20%	-13%	Falcons	-2%	-9%
Braxton Berrios	Jets	6%	7%	-2%	-3%	9%	-11%	Bills	-9%	-10%
Darnell Mooney	Bears	48%	51%	-3%	59%	45%	14%	Dolphins	5%	7%
Ja’Marr Chase	Bengals	44%	34%	10%	54%	35%	19%	Panthers	-4%	5%
JuJu Smith-Schuster	Chiefs	25%	30%	-5%	24%	32%	-9%	Titans	-2%	-9%
Brandon Powell	Rams	6%	1%	5%	8%	0%	8%	Buccaneers	-6%	10%
Juwann Winfree	Packers	6%	2%	4%	7%	2%	5%	Lions	7%	14%
DJ Chark	Lions	7%	29%	-22%	25%	20%	4%	Packers	14%	17%
Trent Sherfield	Dolphins	4%	9%	-5%	6%	12%	-6%	Bears	1%	-12%
DeAndre Hopkins	Cardinals	25%	13%	13%	11%	21%	-10%	Seahawks	-2%	-7%
Nico Collins	Texans	41%	23%	19%	48%	25%	23%	Eagles	8%	3%
Tutu Atwell	Rams	0%	15%	-15%	16%	9%	7%	Buccaneers	-6%	10%
Dyami Brown	Commanders	14%	10%	4%	4%	16%	-12%	Vikings	-15%	-5%
Romeo Doubs	Packers	33%	22%	11%	30%	26%	4%	Lions	7%	14%
Julio Jones	Buccaneers	2%	8%	-7%	14%	7%	7%	Rams	-11%	8%
Tyler Lockett	Seahawks	29%	42%	-13%	48%	40%	8%	Cardinals	-9%	7%
Jamison Crowder	Bills	4%	9%	-5%	4%	9%	-5%	Jets	-2%	-12%
Russell Gage	Buccaneers	21%	6%	15%	15%	8%	7%	Rams	-11%	8%
DJ Moore	Panthers	58%	70%	-12%	49%	66%	-17%	Bengals	8%	-3%
Marquise Brown	Cardinals	36%	48%	-12%	38%	45%	-7%	Seahawks	-2%	-7%
Michael Bandy	Chargers	5%	9%	-4%	3%	9%	-6%	Falcons	-2%	-9%
Cooper Kupp	Rams	47%	50%	-2%	51%	46%	5%	Buccaneers	-6%	10%
Denzel Mims	Jets	0%	5%	-5%	0%	4%	-5%	Bills	-9%	-10%
Parris Campbell	Colts	10%	19%	-9%	3%	18%	-15%	Patriots	14%	-3%
James Proche	Ravens	0%	9%	-9%	3%	7%	-4%	Saints	14%	-11%
Keenan Allen	Chargers	0%	5%	-5%	0%	5%	-5%	Falcons	-2%	-9%
Chris Godwin	Buccaneers	7%	20%	-13%	21%	15%	6%	Rams	-11%	8%
Curtis Samuel	Commanders	24%	21%	3%	13%	22%	-8%	Vikings	-15%	-5%
Christian Kirk	Jaguars	31%	38%	-8%	28%	36%	-8%	Raiders	2%	-5%
Terrace Marshall Jr.	Panthers	14%	15%	-1%	3%	17%	-14%	Bengals	8%	-3%
Kendrick Bourne	Patriots	13%	9%	4%	10%	14%	-4%	Colts	1%	-11%
Dante Pettis	Bears	27%	10%	17%	21%	15%	6%	Dolphins	5%	7%
Andy Isabella	Cardinals	0%	6%	-6%	0%	5%	-5%	Seahawks	-2%	-7%
Jeff Smith	Jets	6%	2%	4%	0%	3%	-3%	Bills	-9%	-10%
Skyy Moore	Chiefs	8%	7%	1%	4%	8%	-4%	Titans	-2%	-9%
Tyquan Thornton	Patriots	10%	9%	2%	5%	8%	-3%	Colts	1%	-11%
Khalil Shakir	Bills	8%	9%	0%	6%	8%	-2%	Jets	-2%	-12%
Jakobi Meyers	Patriots	32%	27%	5%	29%	31%	-2%	Colts	1%	-11%
Tee Higgins	Bengals	25%	30%	-5%	34%	29%	5%	Panthers	-4%	5%
Tom Kennedy	Lions	9%	4%	5%	7%	6%	1%	Packers	14%	17%
River Cracraft	Dolphins	0%	3%	-3%	0%	2%	-2%	Bears	1%	-12%
Stefon Diggs	Bills	53%	41%	12%	44%	46%	-2%	Jets	-2%	-12%
Dee Eskridge	Seahawks	12%	2%	10%	7%	4%	3%	Cardinals	-9%	7%
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine	Titans	23%	30%	-7%	12%	33%	-21%	Chiefs	-9%	-1%
Corey Davis	Jets	21%	33%	-12%	29%	31%	-2%	Bills	-9%	-10%
Michael Pittman Jr.	Colts	28%	27%	1%	24%	31%	-7%	Patriots	14%	-3%
Jason Moore	Chargers	0%	2%	-2%	0%	2%	-2%	Falcons	-2%	-9%
A.J. Brown	Eagles	57%	43%	14%	48%	52%	-4%	Texans	-8%	-5%
Ihmir Smith-Marsette	Bears	0%	2%	-2%	4%	1%	3%	Dolphins	5%	7%
Zay Jones	Jaguars	25%	25%	0%	22%	26%	-4%	Raiders	2%	-5%
Demarcus Robinson	Ravens	13%	34%	-21%	22%	23%	-2%	Saints	14%	-11%
Rondale Moore	Cardinals	8%	12%	-4%	7%	9%	-2%	Seahawks	-2%	-7%
Dezmon Patmon	Colts	1%	6%	-5%	0%	5%	-5%	Patriots	14%	-3%
DeVonta Smith	Eagles	22%	42%	-19%	30%	33%	-3%	Texans	-8%	-5%
Treylon Burks	Titans	19%	20%	-1%	10%	24%	-14%	Chiefs	-9%	-1%
Josh Palmer	Chargers	20%	27%	-7%	21%	22%	-2%	Falcons	-2%	-9%
Chris Conley	Texans	3%	0%	3%	4%	0%	4%	Eagles	8%	3%
Ashton Dulin	Colts	7%	18%	-10%	11%	15%	-4%	Patriots	14%	-3%
Drake London	Falcons	56%	35%	21%	49%	38%	11%	Chargers	8%	1%
Jake Kumerow	Bills	0%	3%	-3%	3%	4%	-1%	Jets	-2%	-12%
K.J. Osborn	Vikings	13%	13%	0%	11%	21%	-10%	Commanders	7%	-1%
Dax Milne	Commanders	1%	2%	-1%	0%	2%	-2%	Vikings	-15%	-5%
DK Metcalf	Seahawks	44%	48%	-4%	45%	44%	1%	Cardinals	-9%	7%
Marquez Callaway	Saints	8%	12%	-5%	6%	16%	-9%	Ravens	-3%	-1%
Elijah Moore	Jets	39%	22%	17%	26%	27%	-1%	Bills	-9%	-10%
Bryan Edwards	Falcons	0%	3%	-3%	9%	1%	8%	Chargers	8%	1%
Jarvis Landry	Saints	4%	9%	-6%	5%	13%	-8%	Ravens	-3%	-1%
Rashid Shaheed	Saints	0%	8%	-8%	0%	7%	-7%	Ravens	-3%	-1%
Justin Jefferson	Vikings	44%	48%	-5%	36%	43%	-6%	Commanders	7%	-1%
Jalen Guyton	Chargers	0%	6%	-6%	6%	7%	-1%	Falcons	-2%	-9%
Tim Jones	Jaguars	0%	1%	-1%	-1%	0%	-1%	Raiders	2%	-5%
Isaiah Hodgins	Bills	2%	3%	-2%	1%	1%	0%	Jets	-2%	-12%
Laviska Shenault	Panthers	0%	2%	-2%	0%	1%	-1%	Bengals	8%	-3%
Cedrick Wilson	Dolphins	0%	5%	-5%	4%	4%	0%	Bears	1%	-12%
Jalen Reagor	Vikings	2%	0%	2%	0%	1%	-1%	Commanders	7%	-1%
Damiere Byrd	Falcons	7%	25%	-19%	23%	22%	1%	Chargers	8%	1%
Mason Kinsey	Titans	0%	1%	-1%	0%	0%	0%	Chiefs	-9%	-1%
Michael Thomas	Saints	6%	12%	-5%	8%	9%	0%	Ravens	-3%	-1%
Deonte Harty	Saints	0%	1%	-1%	0%	0%	0%	Ravens	-3%	-1%
Tyler Johnson	Texans	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	Eagles	8%	3%
Van Jefferson	Rams	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	Buccaneers	-6%	10%
Zach Pascal	Eagles	3%	5%	-2%	4%	4%	0%	Texans	-8%	-5%
Hunter Renfrow	Raiders	9%	11%	-2%	7%	7%	-1%	Jaguars	0%	4%
Keith Kirkwood	Saints	3%	0%	3%	3%	0%	3%	Ravens	-3%	-1%
Lil’Jordan Humphrey	Patriots	0%	3%	-3%	2%	1%	0%	Colts	1%	-11%
Chris Olave	Saints	52%	46%	6%	50%	45%	5%	Ravens	-3%	-1%
Isaiah McKenzie	Bills	8%	8%	0%	8%	8%	0%	Jets	-2%	-12%
Jaelon Darden	Buccaneers	3%	0%	3%	0%	1%	-1%	Rams	-11%	8%
Tre’Quan Smith	Saints	28%	9%	19%	19%	11%	8%	Ravens	-3%	-1%
Chris Moore	Texans	14%	10%	5%	11%	13%	-3%	Eagles	8%	3%
Olamide Zaccheaus	Falcons	18%	28%	-11%	19%	27%	-8%	Chargers	8%	1%
Kevin White	Saints	0%	3%	-3%	9%	0%	9%	Ravens	-3%	-1%
Cam Sims	Commanders	8%	8%	0%	11%	9%	2%	Vikings	-15%	-5%
KhaDarel Hodge	Falcons	19%	8%	12%	1%	12%	-11%	Chargers	8%	1%
Nelson Agholor	Patriots	13%	20%	-7%	14%	13%	1%	Colts	1%	-11%
Cody Hollister	Titans	4%	8%	-4%	15%	4%	11%	Chiefs	-9%	-1%
Robert Woods	Titans	35%	32%	3%	42%	30%	12%	Chiefs	-9%	-1%
Kyle Philips	Titans	19%	6%	12%	21%	7%	15%	Chiefs	-9%	-1%
Quintez Cephus	Lions	1%	1%	1%	0%	1%	-1%	Packers	14%	17%
Adam Thielen	Vikings	41%	39%	2%	52%	36%	17%	Commanders	7%	-1%
Shi Smith	Panthers	28%	13%	15%	22%	15%	7%	Bengals	8%	-3%
Jamal Agnew	Jaguars	14%	4%	9%	10%	5%	5%	Raiders	2%	-5%
N’Keal Harry	Bears	4%	2%	1%	0%	3%	-3%	Dolphins	5%	7%
Andre Baccellia	Cardinals	3%	2%	1%	5%	2%	3%	Seahawks	-2%	-7%
Mike Thomas	Bengals	10%	6%	4%	3%	8%	-5%	Panthers	-4%	5%
Tylan Wallace	Ravens	2%	10%	-8%	9%	7%	3%	Saints	14%	-11%
Michael Strachan	Colts	6%	5%	1%	14%	4%	10%	Patriots	14%	-3%
Quez Watkins	Eagles	18%	10%	7%	18%	12%	6%	Texans	-8%	-5%
Jahan Dotson	Commanders	14%	17%	-3%	21%	15%	6%	Vikings	-15%	-5%
Phillip Dorsett	Texans	7%	17%	-10%	5%	16%	-11%	Eagles	8%	3%
Jaylen Waddle	Dolphins	30%	35%	-5%	33%	30%	3%	Bears	1%	-12%
Marvin Jones	Jaguars	31%	32%	-1%	41%	33%	8%	Raiders	2%	-5%
Brandin Cooks	Texans	34%	50%	-17%	31%	45%	-14%	Eagles	8%	3%
Byron Pringle	Bears	0%	7%	-7%	0%	6%	-6%	Dolphins	5%	7%
Keelan Cole	Raiders	10%	7%	2%	0%	13%	-13%	Jaguars	0%	4%
Greg Dortch	Cardinals	5%	9%	-4%	14%	6%	8%	Seahawks	-2%	-7%
Alec Pierce	Colts	48%	25%	23%	49%	27%	21%	Patriots	14%	-3%
Equanimeous St. Brown	Bears	12%	29%	-17%	16%	25%	-9%	Dolphins	5%	7%
Terry McLaurin	Commanders	41%	42%	-2%	51%	37%	14%	Vikings	-15%	-5%
Mack Hollins	Raiders	25%	30%	-6%	18%	35%	-17%	Jaguars	0%	4%
Tyreek Hill	Dolphins	66%	47%	19%	57%	51%	6%	Bears	1%	-12%
DeVante Parker	Patriots	31%	32%	-1%	39%	32%	7%	Colts	1%	-11%
Samouri Toure	Packers	0%	10%	-10%	0%	6%	-6%	Lions	7%	14%
Marquise Goodwin	Seahawks	16%	7%	8%	1%	13%	-12%	Cardinals	-9%	7%
Tyler Boyd	Bengals	20%	28%	-7%	10%	27%	-17%	Panthers	-4%	5%
Amon-Ra St. Brown	Lions	22%	17%	5%	13%	18%	-5%	Packers	14%	17%
A.J. Green	Cardinals	23%	10%	13%	25%	12%	13%	Seahawks	-2%	-7%
Ben Skowronek	Rams	14%	17%	-3%	10%	19%	-9%	Buccaneers	-6%	10%
Gabriel Davis	Bills	23%	27%	-4%	32%	25%	8%	Jets	-2%	-12%
Amari Rodgers	Packers	0%	8%	-8%	0%	7%	-7%	Lions	7%	14%
Scotty Miller	Buccaneers	12%	17%	-4%	5%	18%	-12%	Rams	-11%	8%
Allen Robinson	Rams	32%	17%	15%	15%	26%	-10%	Buccaneers	-6%	10%
Randall Cobb	Packers	16%	14%	2%	9%	19%	-10%	Lions	7%	14%
Justin Watson	Chiefs	10%	10%	0%	21%	4%	17%	Titans	-2%	-9%
Mike Evans	Buccaneers	35%	41%	-6%	20%	43%	-23%	Rams	-11%	8%
Sammy Watkins	Packers	8%	11%	-3%	0%	13%	-13%	Lions	7%	14%
Josh Reynolds	Lions	43%	24%	19%	26%	38%	-12%	Packers	14%	17%
Garrett Wilson	Jets	28%	31%	-2%	48%	25%	22%	Bills	-9%	-10%
Mike Williams	Chargers	65%	32%	32%	62%	34%	28%	Falcons	-2%	-9%
Mecole Hardman	Chiefs	23%	16%	7%	40%	9%	31%	Titans	-2%	-9%
Devin Duvernay	Ravens	58%	22%	36%	51%	18%	33%	Saints	14%	-11%

*thanks to SIS and their datahub for the stats
**All data was taken ONLY during first 3 quarters, first 3 downs, middle 80 yards of the field and game scripts within +-16 points

WR Matchups to Target in Week 9

*For the matchup sections below, we refrain from “obvious recommendations” and/or players you are starting no matter what (and the opposite for players recommended to sit)

• Marquez Valdes-Scantling

Our secondary model is very excited about MVS this week. Its no secret that he and QB Mahomes have found some chemistry the last couple games, but we are more excited about his matchup this week. You will notice on the second chart that his target share is only 11% when a defense brings a blitz, yet a whopping 47% when the defense only rushes 4 or less. For what it is worth, this is the inverse for Mercole Hardman, but it tells us that MVS is Mahomes guy when NOT blitzed. Take that, and the fact opponent Titanss blitz 9% points less than average in the NFL, we are all over MVS this week.

• Devin Duvernay

Duvernay has had a bit of an up and down season. However, we believe we found a variable to help predict when those “bang” (vs. bust) games will come: Man Coverage. Right now, Duvernay owns a measly 22% target share in zone, but almost tripples that to 58% vs Man. Given that opponent, Saints, run man 14% points higher than league average Duvernay should be in for a great game.

• Alec Pierce

Pierce comes into week with multiple models pointing upward. For starters, using our base model, we find that Pierce has a top 20 matchup in height, speed and net PFF grade. This is heavily weighted toward an expected matchup vs Jalen Mills (52% pass snaps expected), giving up 3 inches (75 vs 72), .2 in the 40 (4.41 vs 4.61) and a PFF grade of 65.8 vs 35.8. Additionally, similar to Duvernay above, Pierce’s target share spikes (48 vs 25%) when he faces man coverage, and the Patriots deploy Cover 1/0 14% more than league average.

WR Matchups to Avoid in Week 9

• Allen Robinson

Robinson has not had the start to the season most drafters hoped. Despite this, he is getting a bit of a bump given the Cooper Kupp injury. However, our models do not like the matchup this week. To be fair, it’s hard to peg down a MOST likely cover man he will likely go up against this week, but our numbers show a 37% expected pass share vs. Jamel Dean. Dean has a 83.1 PFF grade, vs Robinson’s 62.2. And this is all not to mention a strong speed advantage and only a 2 inch height difference.

• DeAndre Hopkins

Hopkins draws rookie Tariq Woolen in this week’s matchup (estimated 77% pass snaps). Given the pff scores come close to a wash, believe it or not this is mainly a “physical mismatch”. Woolen bring 76 inches of height, and a blazing 4.26 40 yard dash. Both numbers could be enough to neutralize Hopkins’ 73 inches and 4.57 40. 

We’re hoping to get back in the win colum this week. Here’s to a perfect lineup!