FPS Posts

Managing bye weeks is a part of fantasy football, yet this week is especially tough on star WRs. Yes, last week Davante Adams’ owners were down their key man, but this week with the Bills, Rams, Vikings and Eagles off on bye. This means that the top 3 WRs in Fantasy Football are out of this week’s lineups, and navigating DFS/starting lineups at the position is especially important. Hopefully, this piece gives you the info you need to make the right decisions.

Week 6 Results:

Once again, we puff our chest based on our “record”, but I still don’t think we’ve hit our stride. Last week was very “meh”, and if I had to give it a grade, I would say C-. The Samuel selection really hurt (especially for those that started him in ½ their leagues).

Name	FP Selection	Projected	Actual	Net
Curtis Samuel	START	12.0	2.6	+9.4 (L)
Kendall Hinton	START	1.5	1.8	+.3 (W)
Olamide Zaccheaus	START	5.5	9.8	+4.3 (W)
Diontae Johnson	SIT	13.3	8.6	-4.7 (W)
Terry McLaurin	SIT	11.7	8.2	-3.5 (W)

Season Scored Card

Season Record: 28-16
Total Net Points: 58.6

*All stats based on Yahoo Fantasy Football ½ PPR

Week 7 WR vs CB Model Scorecard

		Raw Numbers	Weekly Rank
	Snaps	Wt.ed Net pprr	40 Adv.	HT Adv.	nPFFwted Total	Wt.ed Net pprr	40 Adv.	HT Adv.	nPFFwted Total	Avg. Rk.
D.K. Metcalf	39.4	16.4	0.07	3.51	15.1	5	9	17	2	8
Drake London	51.8	16.8	0.00	4.09	7.8	4	23	12	12	13
Amon-Ra St. Brown	37.1	16.3	0.00	2.44	15.8	6	23	30	1	15
Tee Higgins	40.9	15.1	0.00	4.08	6.3	12	23	13	18	17
George Pickens	56.5	15.3	0.06	3.04	5.9	9	11	23	23	17
Michael Pittman Jr.	39.2	13.3	0.02	5.00	4.2	26	17	6	27	19
Amari Cooper	40.4	15.3	0.04	1.54	5.4	10	12	47	25	24
Tre’Quan Smith	39.3	13.7	0.03	2.24	6.2	25	16	32	21	24
Allen Lazard	39.3	11.9	0.00	5.29	3.5	36	23	3	33	24
A.J. Green	42.3	14.7	-0.01	3.22	13.0	17	58	21	4	25
Tyreek Hill	39.8	18.5	0.00	-1.49	12.5	2	23	73	5	26
Alec Pierce	37.2	12.4	0.15	4.00	-1.3	32	4	14	62	28
Ja’Marr Chase	40.7	15.0	0.00	-0.10	6.6	13	23	62	16	29
Jaylen Waddle	40.0	15.3	0.00	-1.36	7.9	11	23	71	10	29
KhaDarel Hodge	39.9	14.9	0.00	-1.30	8.6	14	23	70	9	29
Chase Claypool	40.9	10.5	0.07	4.75	0.4	52	10	8	49	30
Mike Evans	41.0	14.3	-0.11	5.26	7.3	22	78	5	14	30
Nico Collins	38.0	10.4	0.00	6.02	2.0	54	23	2	43	31
Jakobi Meyers	39.9	18.0	-0.13	2.22	11.8	3	80	33	6	31
Tyler Lockett	39.2	14.6	0.01	0.02	4.7	18	19	61	26	31
Devin Duvernay	41.5	14.5	0.01	-1.68	7.4	20	18	75	13	32
Noah Brown	41.9	12.8	0.00	1.65	3.7	27	23	44	32	32
Chris Godwin	40.7	14.7	-0.02	1.90	9.5	16	66	37	8	32
Keenan Allen	42.1	22.7	-0.11	1.79	10.8	1	79	41	7	32
Romeo Doubs	51.3	14.6	0.00	1.62	2.3	19	23	45	42	32
CeeDee Lamb	41.5	15.4	-0.03	1.90	6.4	8	69	38	17	33
Equanimeous St. Brown	39.9	9.0	0.10	6.38	-0.7	71	6	1	57	34
Corey Davis	38.1	10.7	0.00	3.49	1.4	48	23	18	48	34
Mecole Hardman	40.9	13.9	0.00	-0.73	3.9	24	23	68	29	36
Darnell Mooney	40.9	11.0	0.21	0.72	2.4	46	1	57	41	36
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	41.0	10.6	0.00	4.92	-2.2	49	23	7	67	37
Garrett Wilson	40.0	11.2	0.00	1.57	3.0	43	22	46	36	37
Terrace Marshall Jr.	54.7	12.3	0.00	3.18	-3.7	33	23	22	73	38
Davante Adams	40.7	14.4	-0.02	1.98	4.1	21	67	36	28	38
Mike Williams	42.5	11.2	0.00	1.89	0.0	42	23	39	52	39
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine	39.6	8.8	0.00	2.74	2.8	73	23	25	37	40
Dante Pettis	41.2	11.1	0.00	2.29	-0.8	44	23	31	60	40
D.J. Chark Jr.	37.9	9.6	0.03	3.66	-2.3	63	14	15	68	40
Josh Reynolds	37.9	12.6	-0.06	2.95	3.1	29	74	24	35	41
Olamide Zaccheaus	39.8	14.2	0.00	-2.80	3.5	23	23	82	34	41
Richie James Jr.	41.2	11.7	-0.01	-0.57	14.0	38	59	65	3	41
Cody Hollister	39.8	8.2	0.00	3.40	1.5	75	23	20	47	41
Jerry Jeudy	41.0	12.1	0.00	1.83	-3.7	35	20	40	72	42
David Bell	30.9	10.0	-0.05	2.57	7.1	55	70	28	15	42
DeVante Parker	40.0	8.9	0.03	3.41	-1.3	72	15	19	63	42
Marquez Callaway	39.5	9.9	-0.02	2.18	7.9	58	68	34	11	43
Brandon Aiyuk	38.6	16.2	-0.02	-2.15	6.3	7	65	80	20	43
Russell Gage	40.9	11.6	0.00	0.89	-0.3	39	23	55	55	43
Keith Kirkwood	39.2	7.7	0.00	3.52	-0.7	77	23	16	58	44
Mack Hollins	40.6	9.6	-0.02	4.72	2.6	64	63	9	39	44
Marvin Jones Jr.	39.7	9.2	0.00	2.68	-0.8	67	23	27	59	44
Marquise Goodwin	39.2	10.0	0.07	-1.91	2.6	56	8	78	38	45
Tyler Boyd	41.0	11.0	-0.08	2.00	5.8	47	76	35	24	46
JuJu Smith-Schuster	42.1	12.5	0.00	1.22	-7.2	31	23	50	79	46
Robert Woods	39.2	11.8	-0.05	0.93	6.0	37	71	54	22	46
Parris Campbell	39.3	9.3	0.21	1.00	-1.4	66	2	53	64	46
Zay Jones	39.8	10.4	-0.01	2.71	1.8	53	62	26	44	46
Terry McLaurin	40.6	9.4	0.08	0.50	-0.7	65	7	58	56	47
Donovan Peoples-Jones	40.4	10.6	-0.01	2.46	1.6	50	61	29	46	47
Kendrick Bourne	39.7	12.8	-0.20	1.43	3.8	28	83	49	30	48
Christian Kirk	39.5	11.6	0.03	-0.12	-4.0	40	13	63	75	48
Cam Sims	40.6	5.3	0.00	5.28	-7.9	83	23	4	81	48
Brandin Cooks	37.8	9.8	0.11	-0.71	-0.9	59	5	67	61	48
Tylan Wallace	36.8	9.0	0.00	-0.73	3.7	70	23	69	31	48
Deebo Samuel	36.4	14.9	-0.01	-2.01	2.5	15	60	79	40	49
Curtis Samuel	38.9	9.7	0.21	-2.28	0.1	61	3	81	50	49
Courtland Sutton	41.0	10.6	-0.06	4.68	-1.6	51	73	10	66	50
Trent Sherfield	40.6	7.8	0.00	1.22	-0.1	76	23	51	53	51
Josh Palmer	42.3	9.8	0.00	0.85	-1.4	60	23	56	65	51
Darius Slayton	39.9	11.0	0.00	1.17	0.1	45	57	52	51	51
Michael Gallup	41.9	12.3	-0.06	0.18	1.6	34	72	60	45	53
Diontae Johnson	40.9	11.3	-0.07	-1.79	6.3	41	75	77	19	53
Rondale Moore	41.1	9.7	0.00	-5.00	-0.2	62	23	84	54	56
Tyler Johnson	37.9	3.3	0.00	1.75	-7.4	84	23	42	80	57
D.J. Moore	38.7	9.2	0.00	-1.41	-3.0	68	21	72	71	58
Jauan Jennings	38.5	12.6	-0.30	1.48	-2.9	30	84	48	70	58
David Sills	40.2	8.8	-0.09	4.26	-3.9	74	77	11	74	59
Shi Smith	39.1	6.5	0.00	-0.63	-21.5	80	23	66	83	63
Elijah Moore	38.4	7.1	0.00	-1.65	-5.1	79	23	74	78	64
Amari Rodgers	39.7	5.6	0.00	-1.74	-5.0	81	23	76	77	64
K.J. Hamler	41.1	7.3	0.00	-2.85	-4.7	78	23	83	76	65
Demarcus Robinson	41.4	10.0	-0.13	0.28	-2.8	57	81	59	69	67
Hunter Renfrow	40.6	9.0	-0.02	-0.48	-10.3	69	64	64	82	70
DeAndre Hopkins	42.3	5.4	-0.14	1.73	-32.8	82	82	43	84	73

*Again thanks to our friends at PFF for the data
**To standardize all variables we are tracking (and make it easier to read) we included a RANK Display, respective of each data point to the right AND sorted by the average rank across variables.

Legend

Snaps: estimated total drop back snaps a WR will play in the coming matchup
Wt.ed Net PPRR: “Weighted Net Fantasy Points/Route Run”. Simply this is the net value of a WR’s PPRR average vs the DB’s PPRR given up, weighted according to the DB each WR is expected to play.

Example:

Say Davante Adams averages 2.0 points/route run
- DB1 (expected to face 50% of snaps) gives up 3.0 points/route run
- DB2 (expected to face 30% of snaps) gives up 4.0 points/route run
- DB3 (expected to face 20% of snaps) gives up 1.0 points/route run

This first model would predict Adams to produce 2.45 points/route run (Adams 2.0 vs. aggregate defenders averages weighted to 2.9)

*40 Adv: “40 Yard Dash Advantage” (weighted difference between WR 40 time and DB’s)
*HT Adv: “Height Advantage” (same as above, but with height)
nPFFwted Total: “Net PFF weighted Total Advantage”. Our core model, similar to the Wt.ed Net PPRR above, it compares the PFF grade between WR and likely DB, weighted by expected snaps he’ll see each respective DB

*Not all WRs and DBs have 40 times, and/or height measurements. When this occurs with ONE party, the model ignores the other (i.e. you need a WR and DB with a 40 time for this datapoint to populate)

BONUS CHART:

With 6 weeks of data its time to start looking at coverage situations. Given how elastic certain DCs are with their schemes, not to mention the lack of predictability when it comes to DB performance, we find it best to “batch” coverages by:

Man (M) no blitz (Cover 0, 1 with 4 or less rushers)
Man BLITZ (Cover 0, 1 with 5 or more rushers)
Zone (Z) no blitz (Cover 2, 3, 4 or 6 with 4 or less rushers)
Zone BLITZ (Cover 2, 3, 4 or 6 with 5 or more rushers)

Then we run a comparison on Target Rate CHANGE among those 4 categories. For example (see below), Zay Jones clearly gets a bump in targets when the defense plays man (6 and 5% regardless of blitz/no blitz), and he’s facing the Giants who deploy a lot of man (9% more than average, when bringing a blitz in particular). Hence, it’s fair to assume Zay may see a slight bump in expected targets this week.

*Note, as a reminder this ONLY reflects TARGET RATE (not share), and we only displayed those with a significant bump in either direction. The first segment ‘WR Target Boost” represents how WR target rate changes with that respective Coverage TYPE, and the second is how often the opposing defense deploys the respective Coverage TYPE, relative to league average.

				WR Target Boost	Opp COV +/- Use
Player		Team	OPP	M no blitz	M BLITZ	Z no blitz	Z BLITZ	M no blitz	M BLITZ	Z no blitz	Z BLITZ	Total boost
Darnell Mooney	WR	Bears	Patriots	11%	-13%	-5%	7%	10%	-6%	-9%	4%	3%
Zay Jones	WR	Jaguars	Giants	6%	5%	-10%	-1%	1%	9%	-19%	9%	2%
Amon-Ra St. Brown	WR	Lions	Cowboys	5%	21%	4%	-29%	4%	1%	1%	-6%	2%
A.J. Green	WR	Cardinals	saints	12%	1%		-13%	7%	-1%	3%	-9%	2%
Richie James Jr.	WR	Giants	Jaguars	-8%	8%			-9%	6%	-3%	6%	1%
Noah Brown	WR	Cowboys	Lions	17%	5%	-11%	-12%	-2%	11%	-17%	7%	1%
Jauan Jennings	WR	49ers	Chiefs	14%	-11%	-18%	14%	-2%	-4%	-1%	7%	1%
JuJu Smith-Schuster	WR	Chiefs	49ers	-8%	1%	6%		-10%	2%	7%	0%	1%
Brandin Cooks	WR	Texans	Raiders	14%	0%		-14%	8%	-2%	-6%	0%	1%
Nelson Agholor	WR	Patriots	Bears	7%	-6%	0%		11%	-3%	2%	-10%	1%
Mecole Hardman	WR	Chiefs	49ers	-10%	14%	-9%	5%	-10%	2%	7%	0%	1%
Jerry Jeudy	WR	Broncos	Jets	-4%	26%	-6%	-16%	-10%	-1%	23%	-12%	1%
Robert Woods	WR	Titans	Colts	1%	3%	-3%		-2%	-4%	13%	-7%	-1%
Donovan Peoples-Jones	WR	Browns	Ravens	8%	-4%	-1%	-3%	-7%	0%	11%	-4%	-1%
Devin Duvernay	WR	Ravens	Browns	13%	-6%	-7%		-3%	8%	-3%	-2%	-1%
Jakobi Meyers	WR	Patriots	Bears	-5%	3%		3%	11%	-3%	2%	-10%	-1%
Ja’Marr Chase	WR	Bengals	Falcons	14%	-6%	-13%	5%	1%	-3%	8%	-5%	-1%
DJ Moore	WR	Panthers	Buccaneers	9%	5%	-7%	-6%	-7%	-2%	-2%	12%	-1%
Shi Smith	WR	Panthers	Buccaneers	1%	12%	-3%	-10%	-7%	-2%	-2%	12%	-1%
Randall Cobb	WR	Packers	Commanders	-5%	1%	7%	-4%	15%	-1%	-14%	1%	-2%
Sterling Shepard	WR	Giants	Jaguars	11%	-2%		-9%	-9%	6%	-3%	6%	-2%

*thanks to SIS and their datahub for the stats
**All data was taken ONLY during first 3 quarters, first 3 downs, middle 80 yards of the field and game scripts within +-16 points

WR Matchups to Target in Week 7

*For the matchup sections below, we refrain from “obvious recommendations” and/or players you are starting no matter what (and the opposite for players recommended to sit)

Darnell Mooney

You likely noticed Mooney sitting atop our “bonus chart”, as the only player (in either direction) to hit a “3%” bump based on coverage expectation. This is largely based on his target rate bumping up 11% points when facing a Man Coverage, with no blitz. This deployment is something the Patriots run 3rd most within our sampling. Additionally, Mooney will likely face Myles Bryant (48% coverage snaps expected). Bryant is seeing a decent target share, 15%, but is allowing a 117.1 QBR when targeted, and a 51 PFF coverage grade.

Zay Jones

Zay is another WR likely to see a relative bump in targets based on the coverage (type) he’ll likely face vs the Giants. For whatever reason, Jones is not targeted much when the defense plays vanilla (no blitz, zone), which, indirectly is great for Jones as the Giants deploy these schemes at the lowest rate in the league (-19% compared to the league average). From a matchup perspective, Jones is middling, yet has one of the better height advantages, putting his 74 inches up against Adoree’ Jackson’s (40% expected coverage snaps) 71.

George Pickens

Pickens has been a player we have eyed for a few weeks now as he keeps popping up near the top of our base model. He is this week’s “checks all boxes play”. Yes, there’s some turmoil at the QB position in Pittsburgh, but we believe Pickens has too much going for him not to target him. He comes in with a top 25 rank in all 4 metrics the model tracks, including a 9th best Net points per route run (PPRR) grade, buoyed mainly by his shadow, Xavien Howard (53% expected pass snaps). Believe it or not, Howard is giving up 2.08 PPRR, which is considerably higher than Picken’s 1.35.

Others to consider bumping up this week:

AJ Green
Amon-Ra St. Brown (duh, but we think he’ll boom)

WR Matchups to Avoid in Week 7

Jakobi Meyers

Meyers sees a slight dip in target rate when the defense goes Man/no blitz (-5%), which the Bears use 11% more than league average. When you take that, a target rate that has already dropped for 3 straight games (he’s suited up for) and a nagging injury, we’re shying away from him this week. To top all this, he has our model’s worst speed advantage for the week, putting his 4.63 up against Bears cover men, who all sit between 4.44 and 4.52 in the 40.

Drake London

London has “fallen off” a bit from his hot rookie start, going from 25 targets in his first 3 games, to 18 the last 3. Anecdotally, there may be something of a negative correlation to his opportunities and the Falcons “trying to get star TE Pitts more involved”. However, this “stay away” is based mainly on his likely matchup against Chidobe Aquzie (50% expected coverage snaps). Awuzie is allowing a stifling 58.1 QB Rating when targeted this season.

Others to consider sitting:

Devin Duvernay
Diontae Johnson

*Don’t be too worried about Deandre Hopkins low ranking on our base chart. This is essentially because his key stats are being read as 0, instead of “N/A” for the week.

With the inclusion of the Coverage Types into our model, we feel great about this week’s selections. We all wish you luck, and hope to see you back next week!

WR vs. CB Matchups & Advice: Week 7 (2022 Fantasy Football)