WR vs. CB Matchups & Advice: Week 7 (2022 Fantasy Football)

Managing bye weeks is a part of fantasy football, yet this week is especially tough on star WRs. Yes, last week Davante Adams’ owners were down their key man, but this week with the Bills, Rams, Vikings and Eagles off on bye. This means that the top 3 WRs in Fantasy Football are out of this week’s lineups, and navigating DFS/starting lineups at the position is especially important. Hopefully, this piece gives you the info you need to make the right decisions.

Week 6 Results:

Once again, we puff our chest based on our “record”, but I still don’t think we’ve hit our stride. Last week was very “meh”, and if I had to give it a grade, I would say C-. The Samuel selection really hurt (especially for those that started him in ½ their leagues).

NameFP SelectionProjectedActualNet
Curtis SamuelSTART12.02.6+9.4 (L)
Kendall HintonSTART1.51.8+.3 (W)
Olamide ZaccheausSTART5.59.8+4.3 (W)
Diontae JohnsonSIT13.38.6-4.7 (W)
Terry McLaurinSIT11.78.2-3.5 (W)

Season Scored Card

Season Record: 28-16
Total Net Points: 58.6

*All stats based on Yahoo Fantasy Football ½ PPR


Week 7 WR vs CB Model Scorecard

Raw NumbersWeekly Rank
SnapsWt.ed Net pprr40 Adv.HT Adv.nPFFwted TotalWt.ed Net pprr40 Adv.HT Adv.nPFFwted TotalAvg. Rk.
D.K. Metcalf39.416.40.073.5115.1591728
Drake London51.816.80.004.097.8423121213
Amon-Ra St. Brown37.116.30.002.4415.862330115
Tee Higgins40.915.10.004.086.31223131817
George Pickens56.515.30.063.045.9911232317
Michael Pittman Jr.39.213.30.025.004.2261762719
Amari Cooper40.415.30.041.545.41012472524
Tre’Quan Smith39.313.70.032.246.22516322124
Allen Lazard39.311.90.005.293.5362333324
A.J. Green42.314.7-0.013.2213.0175821425
Tyreek Hill39.818.50.00-1.4912.522373526
Alec Pierce37.212.40.154.00-1.3324146228
Ja’Marr Chase40.715.00.00-0.106.61323621629
Jaylen Waddle40.015.30.00-1.367.91123711029
KhaDarel Hodge39.914.90.00-1.308.6142370929
Chase Claypool40.910.50.074.750.4521084930
Mike Evans41.014.3-0.115.267.3227851430
Nico Collins38.010.40.006.022.0542324331
Jakobi Meyers39.918.0-0.132.2211.838033631
Tyler Lockett39.214.60.010.024.71819612631
Devin Duvernay41.514.50.01-1.687.42018751332
Noah Brown41.912.80.001.653.72723443232
Chris Godwin40.714.7-0.021.909.5166637832
Keenan Allen42.122.7-0.111.7910.817941732
Romeo Doubs51.314.60.001.622.31923454232
CeeDee Lamb41.515.4-0.031.906.4869381733
Equanimeous St. Brown39.99.00.106.38-0.771615734
Corey Davis38.110.70.003.491.44823184834
Mecole Hardman40.913.90.00-0.733.92423682936
Darnell Mooney40.911.00.210.722.4461574136
Marquez Valdes-Scantling41.010.60.004.92-2.2492376737
Garrett Wilson40.011.20.001.573.04322463637
Terrace Marshall Jr.54.712.30.003.18-3.73323227338
Davante Adams40.714.4-0.021.984.12167362838
Mike Williams42.511.20.001.890.04223395239
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine39.68.80.002.742.87323253740
Dante Pettis41.211.10.002.29-0.84423316040
D.J. Chark Jr.37.99.60.033.66-2.36314156840
Josh Reynolds37.912.6-0.062.953.12974243541
Olamide Zaccheaus39.814.20.00-2.803.52323823441
Richie James Jr.41.211.7-0.01-0.5714.0385965341
Cody Hollister39.88.20.003.401.57523204741
Jerry Jeudy41.012.10.001.83-3.73520407242
David Bell30.910.0-0.052.577.15570281542
DeVante Parker40.08.90.033.41-1.37215196342
Marquez Callaway39.59.9-0.022.187.95868341143
Brandon Aiyuk38.616.2-0.02-2.156.3765802043
Russell Gage40.911.60.000.89-0.33923555543
Keith Kirkwood39.27.70.003.52-0.77723165844
Mack Hollins40.69.6-0.024.722.6646393944
Marvin Jones Jr.39.79.20.002.68-0.86723275944
Marquise Goodwin39.210.00.07-1.912.6568783845
Tyler Boyd41.011.0-0.082.005.84776352446
JuJu Smith-Schuster42.112.50.001.22-7.23123507946
Robert Woods39.211.8-0.050.936.03771542246
Parris Campbell39.39.30.211.00-1.4662536446
Zay Jones39.810.4-0.012.711.85362264446
Terry McLaurin40.69.40.080.50-0.7657585647
Donovan Peoples-Jones40.410.6-0.012.461.65061294647
Kendrick Bourne39.712.8-0.201.433.82883493048
Christian Kirk39.511.60.03-0.12-4.04013637548
Cam Sims40.65.30.005.28-7.9832348148
Brandin Cooks37.89.80.11-0.71-0.9595676148
Tylan Wallace36.89.00.00-0.733.77023693148
Deebo Samuel36.414.9-0.01-2.012.51560794049
Curtis Samuel38.99.70.21-2.280.1613815049
Courtland Sutton41.010.6-0.064.68-1.65173106650
Trent Sherfield40.67.80.001.22-0.17623515351
Josh Palmer42.39.80.000.85-1.46023566551
Darius Slayton39.911.00.001.170.14557525151
Michael Gallup41.912.3-0.060.181.63472604553
Diontae Johnson40.911.3-0.07-1.796.34175771953
Rondale Moore41.19.70.00-5.00-0.26223845456
Tyler Johnson37.93.30.001.75-7.48423428057
D.J. Moore38.79.20.00-1.41-3.06821727158
Jauan Jennings38.512.6-0.301.48-2.93084487058
David Sills40.28.8-0.094.26-3.97477117459
Shi Smith39.16.50.00-0.63-21.58023668363
Elijah Moore38.47.10.00-1.65-5.17923747864
Amari Rodgers39.75.60.00-1.74-5.08123767764
K.J. Hamler41.17.30.00-2.85-4.77823837665
Demarcus Robinson41.410.0-0.130.28-2.85781596967
Hunter Renfrow40.69.0-0.02-0.48-10.36964648270
DeAndre Hopkins42.35.4-0.141.73-32.88282438473

*Again thanks to our friends at PFF for the data
**To standardize all variables we are tracking (and make it easier to read) we included a RANK Display, respective of each data point to the right AND sorted by the average rank across variables.

Legend

  • Snaps: estimated total drop back snaps a WR will play in the coming matchup
  • Wt.ed Net PPRR: “Weighted Net Fantasy Points/Route Run”. Simply this is the net value of a WR’s PPRR average  vs the DB’s PPRR given up, weighted according to the DB each WR is expected to play. 


Example:

  • Say Davante Adams averages 2.0 points/route run
    • DB1 (expected to face 50% of snaps) gives up 3.0 points/route run
    • DB2 (expected to face 30% of snaps) gives up 4.0 points/route run
    • DB3 (expected to face 20% of snaps) gives up 1.0 points/route run


This first model would predict Adams to produce 2.45 points/route run (Adams 2.0 vs. aggregate defenders averages weighted to 2.9)

  • *40 Adv: “40 Yard Dash Advantage” (weighted difference between WR 40 time and DB’s)
  • *HT Adv: “Height Advantage” (same as above, but with height)
  • nPFFwted Total: “Net PFF weighted Total Advantage”. Our core model, similar to the Wt.ed Net PPRR above, it compares the PFF grade between WR and likely DB, weighted by expected snaps he’ll see each respective DB

*Not all WRs and DBs have 40 times, and/or height measurements. When this occurs with ONE party, the model ignores the other (i.e. you need a WR and DB with a 40 time for this datapoint to populate)

BONUS CHART:


With 6 weeks of data its time to start looking at coverage situations. Given how elastic certain DCs are with their schemes, not to mention the lack of predictability when it comes to DB performance, we find it best to “batch” coverages by:

  • Man (M) no blitz (Cover 0, 1 with 4 or less rushers)
  • Man BLITZ (Cover 0, 1 with 5 or more rushers)
  • Zone (Z) no blitz (Cover 2, 3, 4 or 6 with 4 or less rushers)
  • Zone BLITZ (Cover 2, 3, 4 or 6 with 5 or more rushers)

Then we run a comparison on Target Rate CHANGE among those 4 categories. For example (see below), Zay Jones clearly gets a bump in targets when the defense plays man (6 and 5% regardless of blitz/no blitz), and he’s facing the Giants who deploy a lot of man (9% more than average, when bringing a blitz in particular). Hence, it’s fair to assume Zay may see a slight bump in expected targets this week.

*Note, as a reminder this ONLY reflects TARGET RATE (not share), and we only displayed those with a significant bump in either direction. The first segment ‘WR Target Boost” represents how WR target rate changes with that respective Coverage TYPE, and the second is how often the opposing defense deploys the respective Coverage TYPE, relative to league average.

WR Target BoostOpp COV +/- Use
PlayerTeamOPPM no blitzM BLITZZ no blitzZ BLITZM no blitzM BLITZZ no blitzZ BLITZTotal boost
Darnell MooneyWRBearsPatriots11%-13%-5%7%10%-6%-9%4%3%
Zay JonesWRJaguarsGiants6%5%-10%-1%1%9%-19%9%2%
Amon-Ra St. BrownWRLionsCowboys5%21%4%-29%4%1%1%-6%2%
A.J. GreenWRCardinalssaints12%1%-13%7%-1%3%-9%2%
Richie James Jr.WRGiantsJaguars-8%8%-9%6%-3%6%1%
Noah BrownWRCowboysLions17%5%-11%-12%-2%11%-17%7%1%
Jauan JenningsWR49ersChiefs14%-11%-18%14%-2%-4%-1%7%1%
JuJu Smith-SchusterWRChiefs49ers-8%1%6%-10%2%7%0%1%
Brandin CooksWRTexansRaiders14%0%-14%8%-2%-6%0%1%
Nelson AgholorWRPatriotsBears7%-6%0%11%-3%2%-10%1%
Mecole HardmanWRChiefs49ers-10%14%-9%5%-10%2%7%0%1%
Jerry JeudyWRBroncosJets-4%26%-6%-16%-10%-1%23%-12%1%
Robert WoodsWRTitansColts1%3%-3%-2%-4%13%-7%-1%
Donovan Peoples-JonesWRBrownsRavens8%-4%-1%-3%-7%0%11%-4%-1%
Devin DuvernayWRRavensBrowns13%-6%-7%-3%8%-3%-2%-1%
Jakobi MeyersWRPatriotsBears-5%3%3%11%-3%2%-10%-1%
Ja’Marr ChaseWRBengalsFalcons14%-6%-13%5%1%-3%8%-5%-1%
DJ MooreWRPanthersBuccaneers9%5%-7%-6%-7%-2%-2%12%-1%
Shi SmithWRPanthersBuccaneers1%12%-3%-10%-7%-2%-2%12%-1%
Randall CobbWRPackersCommanders-5%1%7%-4%15%-1%-14%1%-2%
Sterling ShepardWRGiantsJaguars11%-2%-9%-9%6%-3%6%-2%

*thanks to SIS and their datahub for the stats
**All data was taken ONLY during first 3 quarters, first 3 downs, middle 80 yards of the field and game scripts within +-16 points

WR Matchups to Target in Week 7

*For the matchup sections below, we refrain from “obvious recommendations” and/or players you are starting no matter what (and the opposite for players recommended to sit)

  • Darnell Mooney

You likely noticed Mooney sitting atop our “bonus chart”, as the only player (in either direction) to hit a “3%” bump based on coverage expectation. This is largely based on his target rate bumping up 11% points when facing a Man Coverage, with no blitz. This deployment is something the Patriots run 3rd most within our sampling. Additionally, Mooney will likely face Myles Bryant (48% coverage snaps expected). Bryant is seeing a decent target share, 15%, but is allowing a 117.1 QBR when targeted, and a 51 PFF coverage grade

  • Zay Jones

Zay is another WR likely to see a relative bump in targets based on the coverage (type) he’ll likely face vs the Giants. For whatever reason, Jones is not targeted much when the defense plays vanilla (no blitz, zone), which, indirectly is great for Jones as the Giants deploy these schemes at the lowest rate in the league (-19% compared to the league average). From a matchup perspective, Jones is middling, yet has one of the better height advantages, putting his 74 inches up against Adoree’ Jackson’s (40% expected coverage snaps) 71. 

  • George Pickens

Pickens has been a player we have eyed for a few weeks now as he keeps popping up near the top of our base model. He is this week’s “checks all boxes play”. Yes, there’s some turmoil at the QB position in Pittsburgh, but we believe Pickens has too much going for him not to target him. He comes in with a top 25 rank in all 4 metrics the model tracks, including a 9th best Net points per route run (PPRR) grade, buoyed mainly by his shadow, Xavien Howard (53% expected pass snaps). Believe it or not, Howard is giving up 2.08 PPRR, which is considerably higher than Picken’s 1.35.

Others to consider bumping up this week:

  • AJ Green
  • Amon-Ra St. Brown (duh, but we think he’ll boom)

WR Matchups to Avoid in Week 7

  • Jakobi Meyers

Meyers sees a slight dip in target rate when the defense goes Man/no blitz (-5%), which the Bears use 11% more than league average. When you take that, a target rate that has already dropped for 3 straight games (he’s suited up for) and a nagging injury, we’re shying away from him this week. To top all this, he has our model’s worst speed advantage for the week, putting his 4.63 up against Bears cover men, who all sit between 4.44 and 4.52 in the 40.

  • Drake London

London has “fallen off” a bit from his hot rookie start, going from 25 targets in his first 3 games, to 18 the last 3. Anecdotally, there may be something of a negative correlation to his opportunities and the Falcons “trying to get star TE Pitts more involved”. However, this “stay away” is based mainly on his likely matchup against Chidobe Aquzie (50% expected coverage snaps). Awuzie is allowing a stifling 58.1 QB Rating when targeted this season.

Others to consider sitting:

  • Devin Duvernay
  • Diontae Johnson

*Don’t be too worried about Deandre Hopkins low ranking on our base chart. This is essentially because his key stats are being read as 0, instead of “N/A” for the week.

With the inclusion of the Coverage Types into our model, we feel great about this week’s selections. We all wish you luck, and hope to see you back next week!

WR vs. CB Matchups & Advice: Week 7 (2022 Fantasy Football)

Managing bye weeks is a part of fantasy football, yet this week is especially tough on star WRs. Yes, last week Davante Adams’ owners were down their key man, but this week with the Bills, Rams, Vikings and Eagles off on bye. This means that the top 3 WRs in Fantasy Football are out of this week’s lineups, and navigating DFS/starting lineups at the position is especially important. Hopefully, this piece gives you the info you need to make the right decisions.

Week 6 Results:

Once again, we puff our chest based on our “record”, but I still don’t think we’ve hit our stride. Last week was very “meh”, and if I had to give it a grade, I would say C-. The Samuel selection really hurt (especially for those that started him in ½ their leagues).

NameFP SelectionProjectedActualNet
Curtis SamuelSTART12.02.6+9.4 (L)
Kendall HintonSTART1.51.8+.3 (W)
Olamide ZaccheausSTART5.59.8+4.3 (W)
Diontae JohnsonSIT13.38.6-4.7 (W)
Terry McLaurinSIT11.78.2-3.5 (W)

Season Scored Card

Season Record: 28-16
Total Net Points: 58.6

*All stats based on Yahoo Fantasy Football ½ PPR


Week 7 WR vs CB Model Scorecard

Raw NumbersWeekly Rank
SnapsWt.ed Net pprr40 Adv.HT Adv.nPFFwted TotalWt.ed Net pprr40 Adv.HT Adv.nPFFwted TotalAvg. Rk.
D.K. Metcalf39.416.40.073.5115.1591728
Drake London51.816.80.004.097.8423121213
Amon-Ra St. Brown37.116.30.002.4415.862330115
Tee Higgins40.915.10.004.086.31223131817
George Pickens56.515.30.063.045.9911232317
Michael Pittman Jr.39.213.30.025.004.2261762719
Amari Cooper40.415.30.041.545.41012472524
Tre’Quan Smith39.313.70.032.246.22516322124
Allen Lazard39.311.90.005.293.5362333324
A.J. Green42.314.7-0.013.2213.0175821425
Tyreek Hill39.818.50.00-1.4912.522373526
Alec Pierce37.212.40.154.00-1.3324146228
Ja’Marr Chase40.715.00.00-0.106.61323621629
Jaylen Waddle40.015.30.00-1.367.91123711029
KhaDarel Hodge39.914.90.00-1.308.6142370929
Chase Claypool40.910.50.074.750.4521084930
Mike Evans41.014.3-0.115.267.3227851430
Nico Collins38.010.40.006.022.0542324331
Jakobi Meyers39.918.0-0.132.2211.838033631
Tyler Lockett39.214.60.010.024.71819612631
Devin Duvernay41.514.50.01-1.687.42018751332
Noah Brown41.912.80.001.653.72723443232
Chris Godwin40.714.7-0.021.909.5166637832
Keenan Allen42.122.7-0.111.7910.817941732
Romeo Doubs51.314.60.001.622.31923454232
CeeDee Lamb41.515.4-0.031.906.4869381733
Equanimeous St. Brown39.99.00.106.38-0.771615734
Corey Davis38.110.70.003.491.44823184834
Mecole Hardman40.913.90.00-0.733.92423682936
Darnell Mooney40.911.00.210.722.4461574136
Marquez Valdes-Scantling41.010.60.004.92-2.2492376737
Garrett Wilson40.011.20.001.573.04322463637
Terrace Marshall Jr.54.712.30.003.18-3.73323227338
Davante Adams40.714.4-0.021.984.12167362838
Mike Williams42.511.20.001.890.04223395239
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine39.68.80.002.742.87323253740
Dante Pettis41.211.10.002.29-0.84423316040
D.J. Chark Jr.37.99.60.033.66-2.36314156840
Josh Reynolds37.912.6-0.062.953.12974243541
Olamide Zaccheaus39.814.20.00-2.803.52323823441
Richie James Jr.41.211.7-0.01-0.5714.0385965341
Cody Hollister39.88.20.003.401.57523204741
Jerry Jeudy41.012.10.001.83-3.73520407242
David Bell30.910.0-0.052.577.15570281542
DeVante Parker40.08.90.033.41-1.37215196342
Marquez Callaway39.59.9-0.022.187.95868341143
Brandon Aiyuk38.616.2-0.02-2.156.3765802043
Russell Gage40.911.60.000.89-0.33923555543
Keith Kirkwood39.27.70.003.52-0.77723165844
Mack Hollins40.69.6-0.024.722.6646393944
Marvin Jones Jr.39.79.20.002.68-0.86723275944
Marquise Goodwin39.210.00.07-1.912.6568783845
Tyler Boyd41.011.0-0.082.005.84776352446
JuJu Smith-Schuster42.112.50.001.22-7.23123507946
Robert Woods39.211.8-0.050.936.03771542246
Parris Campbell39.39.30.211.00-1.4662536446
Zay Jones39.810.4-0.012.711.85362264446
Terry McLaurin40.69.40.080.50-0.7657585647
Donovan Peoples-Jones40.410.6-0.012.461.65061294647
Kendrick Bourne39.712.8-0.201.433.82883493048
Christian Kirk39.511.60.03-0.12-4.04013637548
Cam Sims40.65.30.005.28-7.9832348148
Brandin Cooks37.89.80.11-0.71-0.9595676148
Tylan Wallace36.89.00.00-0.733.77023693148
Deebo Samuel36.414.9-0.01-2.012.51560794049
Curtis Samuel38.99.70.21-2.280.1613815049
Courtland Sutton41.010.6-0.064.68-1.65173106650
Trent Sherfield40.67.80.001.22-0.17623515351
Josh Palmer42.39.80.000.85-1.46023566551
Darius Slayton39.911.00.001.170.14557525151
Michael Gallup41.912.3-0.060.181.63472604553
Diontae Johnson40.911.3-0.07-1.796.34175771953
Rondale Moore41.19.70.00-5.00-0.26223845456
Tyler Johnson37.93.30.001.75-7.48423428057
D.J. Moore38.79.20.00-1.41-3.06821727158
Jauan Jennings38.512.6-0.301.48-2.93084487058
David Sills40.28.8-0.094.26-3.97477117459
Shi Smith39.16.50.00-0.63-21.58023668363
Elijah Moore38.47.10.00-1.65-5.17923747864
Amari Rodgers39.75.60.00-1.74-5.08123767764
K.J. Hamler41.17.30.00-2.85-4.77823837665
Demarcus Robinson41.410.0-0.130.28-2.85781596967
Hunter Renfrow40.69.0-0.02-0.48-10.36964648270
DeAndre Hopkins42.35.4-0.141.73-32.88282438473

*Again thanks to our friends at PFF for the data
**To standardize all variables we are tracking (and make it easier to read) we included a RANK Display, respective of each data point to the right AND sorted by the average rank across variables.

Legend

  • Snaps: estimated total drop back snaps a WR will play in the coming matchup
  • Wt.ed Net PPRR: “Weighted Net Fantasy Points/Route Run”. Simply this is the net value of a WR’s PPRR average  vs the DB’s PPRR given up, weighted according to the DB each WR is expected to play. 


Example:

  • Say Davante Adams averages 2.0 points/route run
    • DB1 (expected to face 50% of snaps) gives up 3.0 points/route run
    • DB2 (expected to face 30% of snaps) gives up 4.0 points/route run
    • DB3 (expected to face 20% of snaps) gives up 1.0 points/route run


This first model would predict Adams to produce 2.45 points/route run (Adams 2.0 vs. aggregate defenders averages weighted to 2.9)

  • *40 Adv: “40 Yard Dash Advantage” (weighted difference between WR 40 time and DB’s)
  • *HT Adv: “Height Advantage” (same as above, but with height)
  • nPFFwted Total: “Net PFF weighted Total Advantage”. Our core model, similar to the Wt.ed Net PPRR above, it compares the PFF grade between WR and likely DB, weighted by expected snaps he’ll see each respective DB

*Not all WRs and DBs have 40 times, and/or height measurements. When this occurs with ONE party, the model ignores the other (i.e. you need a WR and DB with a 40 time for this datapoint to populate)

BONUS CHART:


With 6 weeks of data its time to start looking at coverage situations. Given how elastic certain DCs are with their schemes, not to mention the lack of predictability when it comes to DB performance, we find it best to “batch” coverages by:

  • Man (M) no blitz (Cover 0, 1 with 4 or less rushers)
  • Man BLITZ (Cover 0, 1 with 5 or more rushers)
  • Zone (Z) no blitz (Cover 2, 3, 4 or 6 with 4 or less rushers)
  • Zone BLITZ (Cover 2, 3, 4 or 6 with 5 or more rushers)

Then we run a comparison on Target Rate CHANGE among those 4 categories. For example (see below), Zay Jones clearly gets a bump in targets when the defense plays man (6 and 5% regardless of blitz/no blitz), and he’s facing the Giants who deploy a lot of man (9% more than average, when bringing a blitz in particular). Hence, it’s fair to assume Zay may see a slight bump in expected targets this week.

*Note, as a reminder this ONLY reflects TARGET RATE (not share), and we only displayed those with a significant bump in either direction. The first segment ‘WR Target Boost” represents how WR target rate changes with that respective Coverage TYPE, and the second is how often the opposing defense deploys the respective Coverage TYPE, relative to league average.

WR Target BoostOpp COV +/- Use
PlayerTeamOPPM no blitzM BLITZZ no blitzZ BLITZM no blitzM BLITZZ no blitzZ BLITZTotal boost
Darnell MooneyWRBearsPatriots11%-13%-5%7%10%-6%-9%4%3%
Zay JonesWRJaguarsGiants6%5%-10%-1%1%9%-19%9%2%
Amon-Ra St. BrownWRLionsCowboys5%21%4%-29%4%1%1%-6%2%
A.J. GreenWRCardinalssaints12%1%-13%7%-1%3%-9%2%
Richie James Jr.WRGiantsJaguars-8%8%-9%6%-3%6%1%
Noah BrownWRCowboysLions17%5%-11%-12%-2%11%-17%7%1%
Jauan JenningsWR49ersChiefs14%-11%-18%14%-2%-4%-1%7%1%
JuJu Smith-SchusterWRChiefs49ers-8%1%6%-10%2%7%0%1%
Brandin CooksWRTexansRaiders14%0%-14%8%-2%-6%0%1%
Nelson AgholorWRPatriotsBears7%-6%0%11%-3%2%-10%1%
Mecole HardmanWRChiefs49ers-10%14%-9%5%-10%2%7%0%1%
Jerry JeudyWRBroncosJets-4%26%-6%-16%-10%-1%23%-12%1%
Robert WoodsWRTitansColts1%3%-3%-2%-4%13%-7%-1%
Donovan Peoples-JonesWRBrownsRavens8%-4%-1%-3%-7%0%11%-4%-1%
Devin DuvernayWRRavensBrowns13%-6%-7%-3%8%-3%-2%-1%
Jakobi MeyersWRPatriotsBears-5%3%3%11%-3%2%-10%-1%
Ja’Marr ChaseWRBengalsFalcons14%-6%-13%5%1%-3%8%-5%-1%
DJ MooreWRPanthersBuccaneers9%5%-7%-6%-7%-2%-2%12%-1%
Shi SmithWRPanthersBuccaneers1%12%-3%-10%-7%-2%-2%12%-1%
Randall CobbWRPackersCommanders-5%1%7%-4%15%-1%-14%1%-2%
Sterling ShepardWRGiantsJaguars11%-2%-9%-9%6%-3%6%-2%

*thanks to SIS and their datahub for the stats
**All data was taken ONLY during first 3 quarters, first 3 downs, middle 80 yards of the field and game scripts within +-16 points

WR Matchups to Target in Week 7

*For the matchup sections below, we refrain from “obvious recommendations” and/or players you are starting no matter what (and the opposite for players recommended to sit)

  • Darnell Mooney

You likely noticed Mooney sitting atop our “bonus chart”, as the only player (in either direction) to hit a “3%” bump based on coverage expectation. This is largely based on his target rate bumping up 11% points when facing a Man Coverage, with no blitz. This deployment is something the Patriots run 3rd most within our sampling. Additionally, Mooney will likely face Myles Bryant (48% coverage snaps expected). Bryant is seeing a decent target share, 15%, but is allowing a 117.1 QBR when targeted, and a 51 PFF coverage grade

  • Zay Jones

Zay is another WR likely to see a relative bump in targets based on the coverage (type) he’ll likely face vs the Giants. For whatever reason, Jones is not targeted much when the defense plays vanilla (no blitz, zone), which, indirectly is great for Jones as the Giants deploy these schemes at the lowest rate in the league (-19% compared to the league average). From a matchup perspective, Jones is middling, yet has one of the better height advantages, putting his 74 inches up against Adoree’ Jackson’s (40% expected coverage snaps) 71. 

  • George Pickens

Pickens has been a player we have eyed for a few weeks now as he keeps popping up near the top of our base model. He is this week’s “checks all boxes play”. Yes, there’s some turmoil at the QB position in Pittsburgh, but we believe Pickens has too much going for him not to target him. He comes in with a top 25 rank in all 4 metrics the model tracks, including a 9th best Net points per route run (PPRR) grade, buoyed mainly by his shadow, Xavien Howard (53% expected pass snaps). Believe it or not, Howard is giving up 2.08 PPRR, which is considerably higher than Picken’s 1.35.

Others to consider bumping up this week:

  • AJ Green
  • Amon-Ra St. Brown (duh, but we think he’ll boom)

WR Matchups to Avoid in Week 7

  • Jakobi Meyers

Meyers sees a slight dip in target rate when the defense goes Man/no blitz (-5%), which the Bears use 11% more than league average. When you take that, a target rate that has already dropped for 3 straight games (he’s suited up for) and a nagging injury, we’re shying away from him this week. To top all this, he has our model’s worst speed advantage for the week, putting his 4.63 up against Bears cover men, who all sit between 4.44 and 4.52 in the 40.

  • Drake London

London has “fallen off” a bit from his hot rookie start, going from 25 targets in his first 3 games, to 18 the last 3. Anecdotally, there may be something of a negative correlation to his opportunities and the Falcons “trying to get star TE Pitts more involved”. However, this “stay away” is based mainly on his likely matchup against Chidobe Aquzie (50% expected coverage snaps). Awuzie is allowing a stifling 58.1 QB Rating when targeted this season.

Others to consider sitting:

  • Devin Duvernay
  • Diontae Johnson

*Don’t be too worried about Deandre Hopkins low ranking on our base chart. This is essentially because his key stats are being read as 0, instead of “N/A” for the week.

With the inclusion of the Coverage Types into our model, we feel great about this week’s selections. We all wish you luck, and hope to see you back next week!

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