WR vs. CB Matchups & Advice: Week 4 (2022 Fantasy Football)

WR vs. CB Matchups & Advice: Week 4 (2022 Fantasy Football)

With 3 weeks under our belt, this NFL season has been as whacky as ever. Beyond teams like the Jaguars sitting at #2 by DVOA, we’re having countless priors challenged, particularly in the passing game. Things like: 

• The Chiefs will be fine with whatever WRs you put out there
• Russell Wilson is the missing piece to an extremley talented offense in Denver otherwise
• A Goff-led offense simply can not be empirically good

All of this is happening within the shadow of a league-wide offensive downturn. In fact, ESPN did a piece last week, citing 

“Not since 1996 have we seen unders cash at a 68% clip over the first two weeks. Rarely is the market that far off, even in a small size of 32 games. But that’s the ripple effect of a scoring dip to 21.4 points per team, which would rank as the lowest since 2006, if it held for the entire season.”

To wit, even those in the analytics community can’t seem to come to an agreement as to why this dip in offensive production is happening. One half seems to think it has to do with the increase in 2-High Safety Shells (with the pendulum swinging back from when the “Legion of Boom” days when they made Single-High looks so popular) decreasing explosive pass plays, the other is calling out that analysis to be flawed with correlated, but not causal variables.

And with this backdrop, were left trying to figure out what WR to start this week in our fantasy lineups. Either way, we will continue to focus on the process and not the outcome, and lean on a sound model to help glean some information, in hopes of gaining an advantage.

NOTE: As we mentioned in weeks prior, like in the WR vs. CB Matchups & Advice: Week 2 (2022 Fantasy Football, and have hammered home to you by now:  “Coverage Predicting Models” are barely causal, and should not be taken as gospel. Instead, use this data as a tie-breaking system when you have 50/50 decisions. With all the self-loathing out of the way, I will say the model will only get better throughout the year, as the sample sizes of the relevant data points increase. 

Week 3 Results:

6-3 last week, with 4 solid winners, highlighted by the Zay Jones pick (16.5 above expected), but were hurt by Tyler Boyd’s big game. While Boyd 2x-ed his expectation, it seemed that we simply had the “wrong” Bengal WR to fade on the week, as Higgins performed up to snub, while Jamar Chase had his second “below par” outing in a row.

Name	FP Selection	Projected	Actual	Net
Equanimeous St Brown	START	5.5	7.3	+2.1 (W)
Nelson Agholor	START	8.9	4.1	-4.8 (L)
Tee Higgins	START	15.6	14.3	+1.3 (W)
*Marvin Jones	START	6.8	13.3	+6.5 (W)
*Zay Jones	START	8.0	24.5	+16.5 (W)
Tyler Boyd	SIT	10.2	20.5	+10.3 (L)
Jahan Dotson	SIT	9.5	3.0	-6.5 (W)
Diontae Johnson	SIT	13.8	16.4	+2.6 (L)
*DJ Moore	SIT	12.1	2.5	-7.6 (W)

*Supplemental pick

Season Scored Card

Season Record: 17-10
Total Net Points: 73.3
Net Points/Selection: +2.82

*All stats based on Yahoo Fantasy Football ½ PPR

*Note, based on feedback we made a few changes to the table:

1. We aggregated all data into one spot (likely so you can copy and paste in to your own spreadsheet, you rascals, you)
2. We made an executive decision to STILL track our “coverage bonuses” (who a QB targets more/less when blitzed/not blitzed and when facing zone/man), but not display and/or add to the model until we can incorporate 2022 data (after week 4)
3. To standardize all variables we are tracking (and make it easier to read) we included a RANK Display, respective of each data point to the right AND sorted by the average rank across variables.

Week 3 WR vs CB Model Scorecard

		Raw Numbers	Weekly Rank
	Snaps	Wt.ed Net pprr	40 Adv.	HT Adv.	nPFFwted Total	Wt.ed Net pprr	40 Adv.	HT Adv.	nPFFwted Total	Avg. Rk.
Michael Pittman Jr.	60.6	26.5	0.02	5.00	5.5	8	21	3	23	14
Cooper Kupp	61.9	29.2	0.00	3.34	11.8	6	25	24	7	16
Drake London	53.5	25.0	0.00	3.02	7.9	10	25	27	13	19
Tee Higgins	54.0	18.4	0.00	3.63	6.8	23	25	19	18	21
D.K. Metcalf	54.5	17.3	0.16	2.33	5.8	28	5	36	22	23
Romeo Doubs	42.0	15.9	0.00	3.41	7.1	39	25	22	15	25
Amon-Ra St. Brown	50.6	29.3	0.00	-0.33	27.5	5	25	71	1	26
Julio Jones	43.3	15.4	0.14	2.52	4.6	42	7	32	30	28
Keenan Allen	58.5	30.1	-0.01	3.41	5.5	4	64	23	24	29
Tyler Lockett	57.3	23.3	0.10	-2.13	13.9	12	10	90	4	29
Amari Cooper	55.5	25.1	0.00	1.38	4.0	9	25	49	35	30
Curtis Samuel	43.9	14.8	0.17	0.44	8.1	45	3	60	12	30
Mike Williams	55.5	13.9	0.00	4.82	3.6	53	25	4	38	30
Robbie Anderson	57.1	14.0	0.00	2.99	6.9	52	25	28	17	31
Jaylen Waddle	77.4	38.6	0.00	-1.23	7.0	1	25	82	16	31
Richie James Jr.	46.4	21.5	0.03	-2.95	16.2	15	18	92	2	32
KhaDarel Hodge	37.4	21.2	0.00	-1.40	12.1	16	25	84	6	33
Mike Evans	53.6	23.2	-0.06	4.69	5.1	13	86	6	26	33
Chris Olave	54.8	17.4	0.08	0.12	4.2	27	11	62	33	33
Noah Brown	34.1	13.2	0.00	1.50	8.4	55	25	47	10	34
Garrett Wilson	37.4	14.3	0.15	0.19	6.0	49	6	61	21	34
Devin Duvernay	35.9	15.9	0.10	-0.42	7.2	40	9	74	14	34
A.J. Brown	56.8	23.4	-0.04	1.68	8.2	11	77	43	11	36
Randall Cobb	36.7	11.1	0.13	0.61	12.5	71	8	59	5	36
Tyreek Hill	69.8	30.7	0.00	-1.03	3.7	3	25	79	36	36
Stefon Diggs	55.5	34.6	-0.01	-0.36	11.5	2	61	72	8	36
Allen Lazard	47.3	16.2	-0.02	6.91	3.2	36	66	1	43	37
DeVonta Smith	62.0	22.0	0.00	-0.04	3.3	14	25	66	42	37
Rashod Bateman	48.2	18.6	0.00	0.76	2.4	22	25	56	49	38
Michael Thomas	51.2	20.0	-0.04	1.95	6.6	19	75	40	19	38
Terry McLaurin	56.6	16.8	0.04	-0.21	4.2	33	16	70	34	38
Alec Pierce	35.3	11.4	0.16	4.00	-2.3	66	4	12	72	39
Nico Collins	43.5	11.4	0.00	4.75	1.2	68	25	5	57	39
Ja’Marr Chase	62.3	20.5	0.00	-0.38	3.3	18	25	73	41	39
Courtland Sutton	57.4	17.2	-0.01	4.04	1.3	30	62	11	56	40
Corey Davis	47.1	13.4	0.00	2.36	2.6	54	25	35	47	40
CeeDee Lamb	75.7	27.2	-0.06	1.29	5.0	7	81	50	28	42
Nelson Agholor	67.9	20.8	0.05	-0.03	-2.1	17	15	64	71	42
Equanimeous St. Brown	38.5	11.4	-0.02	5.78	4.6	67	72	2	29	43
Jerry Jeudy	50.0	14.9	0.01	3.90	-5.2	44	23	16	87	43
Tyler Boyd	59.3	16.5	0.00	3.66	-10.0	35	25	18	93	43
Allen Robinson II	53.1	12.5	0.00	3.77	-2.4	58	25	17	74	44
Quez Watkins	46.6	12.0	-0.02	2.11	10.5	63	67	38	9	44
D.J. Moore	56.7	10.2	0.04	-1.19	14.4	77	17	81	3	45
Chase Claypool	53.7	11.2	0.03	4.25	-3.1	70	20	10	79	45
Bennett Skowronek	52.1	12.2	0.00	3.99	-3.5	61	25	13	80	45
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	47.2	10.7	0.06	3.98	-4.0	74	13	14	81	46
Dante Pettis	45.8	12.0	0.00	1.77	1.4	62	25	42	54	46
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine	39.0	9.9	0.00	2.78	2.3	79	25	29	50	46
Robert Woods	56.0	17.8	-0.05	0.95	5.2	25	78	55	25	46
Marquise Brown	60.5	17.5	0.00	-2.06	2.9	26	25	89	46	47
Olamide Zaccheaus	39.7	15.6	0.00	-4.59	5.0	41	25	96	27	47
D.J. Chark Jr.	52.4	11.8	0.03	1.50	0.5	64	19	48	59	48
Adam Thielen	58.1	10.4	0.00	1.85	1.1	76	25	41	58	50
Josh Palmer	36.1	8.6	0.00	3.07	0.0	87	25	26	62	50
Marvin Jones Jr.	56.6	12.3	0.00	2.49	-4.8	60	25	33	85	51
Chris Moore	30.6	7.0	0.00	3.27	-0.7	90	25	25	64	51
Russell Gage	48.7	18.3	0.00	-0.82	-3.0	24	25	77	78	51
Gabriel Davis	37.7	14.4	-0.10	2.62	3.5	48	90	31	39	52
Davante Adams	59.3	17.2	-0.05	1.65	1.4	29	79	45	55	52
Justin Jefferson	60.0	16.1	-0.04	1.04	2.4	37	74	53	48	53
Parris Campbell	47.6	10.8	0.22	1.00	-4.4	73	2	54	83	53
Marquise Goodwin	30.4	7.2	0.22	-3.73	4.3	89	1	93	32	54
Zay Jones	48.0	14.3	-0.04	2.67	0.4	51	76	30	60	54
Jauan Jennings	40.7	11.7	-0.28	3.46	3.7	65	96	21	37	55
Brandin Cooks	54.5	14.4	0.00	-1.10	-1.8	47	25	80	70	56
Darnell Mooney	60.4	10.6	0.06	-0.03	-1.2	75	14	65	68	56
K.J. Osborn	48.3	9.7	0.00	-0.69	3.4	82	25	76	40	56
Brandon Aiyuk	54.2	18.7	-0.06	-0.07	1.8	21	83	68	52	56
Jahan Dotson	57.6	16.7	-0.02	-0.56	1.9	34	65	75	51	56
Donovan Peoples-Jones	54.4	14.3	-0.02	2.23	-1.3	50	71	37	69	57
DeVante Parker	52.1	9.4	-0.01	3.60	-0.7	83	63	20	65	58
Jarvis Landry	49.4	16.0	-0.22	-0.84	6.2	38	95	78	20	58
Kendrick Bourne	39.9	12.9	-0.09	0.64	4.5	56	89	58	31	59
Mack Hollins	36.0	9.3	-0.06	3.94	1.5	84	82	15	53	59
Christian Kirk	52.2	19.6	-0.07	1.23	-3.0	20	87	51	77	59
Josh Reynolds	50.8	14.7	-0.13	0.69	3.1	46	94	57	44	60
Deebo Samuel	52.9	17.1	-0.06	-0.06	-1.2	31	80	67	67	61
Greg Dortch	48.5	14.9	0.00	-4.07	-5.0	43	25	94	86	62
Mecole Hardman	50.6	12.3	0.07	-1.87	-6.6	59	12	88	89	62
Kenny Golladay	46.9	8.3	-0.02	4.35	-5.5	88	68	9	88	63
Diontae Johnson	61.3	16.8	-0.13	-1.78	3.0	32	93	87	45	64
Elijah Moore	44.2	10.2	0.00	-2.32	-0.8	78	25	91	66	65
David Sills	31.0	6.2	-0.09	4.43	-2.3	91	88	8	73	65
Treylon Burks	38.3	11.2	-0.06	1.66	-0.2	69	84	44	63	65
Cedrick Wilson	40.4	5.8	-0.02	4.53	-16.6	93	69	7	94	66
Michael Gallup	51.0	9.7	0.00	0.00	-20.1	81	25	63	96	66
Isaiah McKenzie	27.1	9.7	0.00	-4.12	-2.7	80	24	95	76	69
Andy Isabella	19.7	3.4	0.01	-1.48	-2.6	96	22	85	75	70
JuJu Smith-Schuster	48.7	12.8	-0.10	2.06	-8.2	57	91	39	92	70
George Pickens	59.2	9.1	-0.02	2.49	-7.7	86	70	34	91	70
Shi Smith	30.4	5.8	0.00	-1.31	-4.3	92	25	83	82	71
Demarcus Robinson	40.0	9.1	-0.11	1.08	0.2	85	92	52	61	73
K.J. Hamler	31.9	3.4	0.00	-1.77	-6.9	95	25	86	90	74
Hunter Renfrow	51.4	11.1	-0.04	-0.13	-4.7	72	73	69	84	75
David Bell	31.4	5.2	-0.06	1.52	-17.1	94	85	46	95	80

*Again thanks to our friends at PFF for the data

Legend

• Snaps: estimated total drop back snaps a WR will play in the coming matchup
• Wt.ed Net PPRR: “Weighted Net Fantasy Points/Route Run”. Simply this is the net value of a WR’s PPRR average  vs the DB’s PPRR given up, weighted according to the DB each WR is expected to play. 

Example:

• Say Davante Adams averages 2.0 points/route run
  • DB1 (expected to face 50% of snaps) gives up 3.0 points/route run
  • DB2 (expected to face 30% of snaps) gives up 4.0 points/route run
  • DB3 (expected to face 20% of snaps) gives up 1.0 points/route run

This first model would predict Adams to produce 2.45 points/route run (Adams 2.0 vs. aggregate defenders averages weighted to 2.9)

• *40 Adv: “40 Yard Dash Advantage” (weighted difference between WR 40 time and DB’s)
• *HT Adv: “Height Advantage” (same as above, but with height)
• nPFFwted Total: “Net PFF weighted Total Advantage”. Our core model, similar to the Wt.ed Net PPRR above, it compares the PFF grade between WR and likely DB, weighted by expected snaps he’ll see each respective DB

*Not all WRs and DBs have 40 times, and/or height measurements. When this occurs with ONE party, the model ignores the other (i.e. you need a WR and DB with a 40 time for this datapoint to populate)

BONUS CHART:

Most frequently targetted Rookie CBs

Although not officially worked into our model, we do like to use the info above (thanks again to PFF) to support some of our decisions.

WR Matchups to Target in Week 4

*For the matchup sections below, we refrain from “obvious recommendations” and/or players you are starting no matter what (and the opposite for players recommended to sit)

• Richie James Jr.

Deep dive on this one. James has been one of the bigger beneficiaries of all the Giants WR injury woes, but at least has done SOMETHING with the opportunity, posting 5/59, 5/51 and 4/36 (very consistent) receiving lines to start the season. Beyond the anecdotal love for a WR who has consistently provided 8+ point fantasy weeks, WITHOUT a TD, week 4 looks ripe for a breakout.

James comes in this week within the top 19 percentile of WRs available based on our core model. This is mainly propped up by the 2nd best “Net PFF grade” on the week. Take his 69.3 grade on the season, vs. Kyler Gordon’s (85% expected pass snaps) 46.6 and you see a very clear performance advantage.

Besides the core model liking his chances this week, as the bonus chart shows above, opposing CB Kyler Gordon has been consistently picked on by OCs (see picture above), more than any other rookie CB, seeing 24 targets in 3 games (and that’s with almost 20% less pass coverage snaps than #2 on the list). Clearly, OCs are scheming to go after this rookie, who is not fairing that well to start his career, so we recommend you smash this play in DFF/or if you are really in need of some WR help this week.

• Romeo Doubs

Doubs has already come a long way from his first snap in the NFL, dropping an almost sure TD from Aaron Rodgers (which I believe is still influencing opinions of him out there). Particularly, blowing up last week for a 8/73/1 receiving line. More importantly, as we’ve seen in the past, earning Rodger’s praise after the game is usually worth a couple of points on its own.

In addition, he comes in as this week’s “checks all boxes” matchup play. That is, he’s ranked 7th on our weekly chart, and that’s mainly due to “not being too low” in any marker. His best indicator is his net PFF grade, mainly due to his 73.7 grade going up against most likely matchup (41% expected pass snaps) Jalen Mills from the Patriots and his abysmal 29.2 grade this early in the season.

• Drake London

We’ll admit, this one is cheating a bit, as pretty much everyone is starting London at this point if he’s on your roster. However, we think he’s a strong play for DFSers out there as well. He is currently priced at $6100 on Fan Duel, cheaper than guys like Allen Lazard and Christian Kirk. 

Drake is another one of the plays that gets both a great matchup grade according to our model, 3rd highest on the week behind only Cooper Kupp and Michael Pittman, AND will face a heavily targetted rookie CB (see Bonus Chart above). According to the estimates, London will go up against Martin Emerson of the Browns on 55% of snaps. This is significant as Emerson has seen 18 targets on 105 pass snaps, or 17% target rate.

Drake may put up 30 on this guy.  

Others to consider bumping up this week:

• KhaDarel Hodge
• Noah Brown

WR Matchups to Avoid in Week 4

• Mack Hollins

I have to be honest, a big part of this selection is “the likely swing back to a normal target share” we would expect from a team that: 

1. Is getting Hunter Renfrow back
2. Is looking at their 0-3 record, lack of draft capital and their prized addition from the offseason, along with his 2nd most expensive WR in the league price tag, and thinking: we need to get the ball to Davante Adams

That is, it’s always good to be on the RIGHT side of regression. Hollins has to come back to earth after already beating his career-best season in yardage, through only 3 games. 

On top of this, Hollins comes into the week with one of the worst matchups. In just about every matchup point he’s at a disadvantage, but the one that really sticks out is his net YPRR. He’s most likely to see the majority of his snaps vs. young up-and-comer Patrick Surtain II, whose .57 YPRR significantly pulls down Hollins’ average of 1.98.

• Christian Kirk

This is the first time a WR has been put on this list twice, on different sides of the prediction spectrum. Kirk, who we mentioned before is somehow going for a higher salary than Drake London this week in DFS, has an awful matchup Sunday. He is set to face off vs. Avonte Maddox for 78% of the pass snaps. Beyond Maddox having the speed advantage (over a guy that wins with speed mind you) at 4.39 vs Kirk’s 4.47, he brings a 78.5 defensive grade against the Jaguar, compared to Kirk’s 73.6. 

Others to consider sitting:

• Deebo Samuel
• Devante Parker

We really like this week’s picks, so hopefully they help you towards a winning week. Stay tuned next week when we add back the coverage data to tighten up the model!