It’s no secret that QBs are the most critical position to winning football games. However, HOW a QB operates, HOW he wins (or loses) games come in all “shapes and sizes”. And I’m not referring to obvious differentiators like running QB vs dropback passer. Instead, now equipped with cutting-edge tracking data, we can identify and “bucket” certain TYPES of passers in the NFL. That is the handful of most telling characteristics that add up to define WHO A QB IS, or better yet, his QB Archetype.
Levering NextGenStats, and the last 3 years of data we’ve mapped out what those QB Archetypes look like across the league. Specifically, we used 5 datapoints, snap weighted to measure…
- Holds on to the Ball, TTT, or How long a QB tends to hold on to the ball (as the ranking is inverted, the higher the number the LONGER the QB holds on to the ball) *This does NOT tease out scrambles, which admittedly skews this datapoint considerably
- Throws Deep (IAY), aka ADOT, the average intended air yards for a QB
- Aggressiveness (tight window %), or the frequency in which a QB targets a WR with less than 1 yard of separation from the nearest defender (the higher the number = the MORE aggressive, ie “30” is very aggressive, and “1” is very conservatie)
- Decision Making (xCOMP%) is determined by the EXPECTED completion rate given where players are on the field at the moment ball breaks QB’s hands *Frankly I believe this to be AT MINIMUM a shared datapoint with the OC, but can still be used to draw some conclusion on decision making
- Accuracy (CPOE) or completion percentage over expected. Based on where all 22 players are on the field, what is the net difference between a QB’s actual completion percentage vs. what would be expected
…and compare that QB’s ranking to his peers.
To read the radar charts, we INVERTED the rankings, hence the further OUTSIDE the center a datapoint point is the higher/”better” a QB is ranked at that trait. For example, if we look at the first Archetype: Aaron Rodgers, you see a QB that
- Is a little quicker than average at getting the ball out
- Pushes the ball downfield at an above-average rate
- Is “very average” in aggressiveness
- Is a great decision maker
- Has elite accuracy
*Simply put, the further from the center, the greater the magnitude the QB has in THAT trait (compared to his peers)
**All charts are strictly a passing chart, and although how often a QB scrambles IS a very sticky variable, it is NOT included here
Additionally, after each QB radar chart, I included a “Closest Comp” within the respective QB’s cell using the standard deviation between all relevant QBs to find the “closest match” in regards to the data.
Aaron Rodgers
Closest Comp:Kyler Murray
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Baker Mayfield
Closest Comp:Justin Fields
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Carson Wentz
Closest Comp:Jacoby Brissett
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Dak Prescott
Closest Comp:Ryan Tannehill
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Daniel Jones
Closest Comp:Matt Ryan
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David Mills
Closest Comp: Mac Jones
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Derek Carr
Closest Comp:Kyler Murry (2x)
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Jacoby Brisset
Closest Comp:Carson Wentz
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Jalen Hurts
Closest Comp: Mitchell Trubisky
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Jameis Winston
Closest Comp: Baker Mayfield (2x)
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Jared Goff
Closest Comp: Pat Mahomes
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Joe Burrow
Closest Comp: Tua Tagovailoa
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Josh Allen
Closest Comp: Lamar Jackson
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Justin Fields
Closest Comp:Baker Mayfield
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Justin Herbert
Closest Comp: Tua Tagovailoa
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Kirk Cousins
Closest Comp:Russell Wilson
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Kyler Murray
Closest Comp:Aaron Rodgers
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Lamar Jackson
Closest Comp: Josh Allen
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Mac Jones
Closest Comp: David Mills
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Marcus Mariota
Closest Comp: Jameis Winston (x2)
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Matt Ryan
Closest Comp:Daniel Jones
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Matt Stafford
Closest Comp: Tom Brady
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Mitchell Trubisky
Closest Comp:Jalen Hurts
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Pat Mahomes
Closest Comp:Jared Goff
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Russell Wilson
Closest Comp: Kirk Cousins
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Ryan Tannehill
Closest Comp:Dak Prescott
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Tom Brady
Closest Comp: Matt Stafford
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Trevor Lawrence
Closest Comp: Zac Wilson
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Tua Tagovailoa
Closest Comp: Joe Burrow
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Zac Wilson
Closest Comp: Trevor Lawrence
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I’m not going to lie, it is a bit of fun to look at the graph and try to guess the QB
Biggest Suprise
Pat Mahomes and Josh Allen are easily considered the two best in the game, and their “advanced numbers” usually match what the naked eye sees, but I have to say this is NOT what I expected to see. In fairness, remember this data tracks the last 3 years (including one in which Josh Allen had not “taken his leap yet”).
Most Interesting
Given the draft situation, and ensuing “mirrored careers” in terms of starts, I find it fascinating how similar BOTH Tua and Burrow ended being in characteristics AND Mac Jones and David Mills being in the same boat. I’m guessing this is one of those fun facts, that has next to no value, just thought it was interesting to note
Most Unique: Daniel Jones
For an exercise like this, where we are limited to QBs in the past 3 years, and comparing their makeup to a handful of objective measurements, I am not surprised that Daniel Jones was the most unique, or the one with least comps, as Jones has been an enigma since day one, with the little we know about him being NOT GOOD.
Closest Comp: Mitch Trubisky and Jalen Hurts
As maybe a tip of the cap to the “Steagles” of years past, Trubisky and Hurts are the MOST SIMILAR of QBs within our sample (see graph above in either’s cell). I’m not quite sure if this is good for Mitch, bad for Jalen or bad for both, but it is eerie how similar the two shaped out.
Remember, this data and especially the way it is presented isn’t as much a “performance indicator”, but more so as a trait identifier. We hear all sorts of adjectives from talking heads explaining how a QB does this, and doesn’t do that, but this should serve as an empirical answer to WHAT TYPE of QB player xyz is.
I hope this was insightful, or at the least interesting to see the visual.