Week 16 – Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks

Both teams are in the very unique position where they are officially OUT of the playoffs, yet have no incentive to lose/tank, as neither have their first round draft pick (The Bears traded theirs to the Giants, and the Seahawks traded theirs to the Jets). From a situational standpoint you can point at the Bears having a marginal rest advantage, given the Seahawks were forced to play on a Tuesday. Beyond this, there aren’t many macro-variables to hint at a legitimate advantage for either of these teams.

Ryan’s Season Totals

Assigned Games: 22-16-1 

Best Bets: 27-16, Up 1358%


  • Opening Line: Seattle  -7
  • Current Line: Seattle  -6.5
  • Over/Under: 42.5
  • Location: Lumen Field, Seattle, WA
  • Start Time: 4:25 PM EST, SUN 12/26
  • Last Meeting: Bears, 24, Seahawks 17 at Chicago in 2018


The 2021 Chicago Bears turned into just another of a long line of teams that came in with potential, but were held back by injuries, bad coaching and poor Quarterback play. Sitting at 24th by DVOA, the Bears season has turned more into a very long 2022 preseason for their young QB, Justin Fields to develop.

The Seahawks are a team with nothing to play for, and even if they were motivated, they have been absolutely hampered by their Head Coach’s strategic contributions. Beyond being the EDJ Sports 2nd worst coach by 4th down decision making, Pete Carroll has now shown multiple years of not understanding very elementary level strengths and weaknesses of his team (see personnel example here). In year’s past Carrolls subjective value (being a player’s coach, having the team’s trust etc.) seemed to make up for poor objective contributions, but we’re now at a point where he is a liability to a very average team.


  • Chicago is 0-5 ATS over its last 5 games.
  • Seattle is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games vs Chicago.
  • The UNDER is 9-2-1 in Seattle’s last 12 games.

Bottom Line

There are some forecasters calling for light snow on Sunday, but it’s unlikely to be enough to matter much in this game. Frankly, this matchup has all the markings of “stay away” for me. We have two teams that have nothing to play for, relatively close in performance metrics, without a glaring advanced matchup metric to force us to lean one way or the other. However, we have learned that despite 58% of the betting tickets side with the Bears at +6.5, 99% of the cash is on the Seahawks -6.5! This is a glaring tell that sharps (those wagering large sums of money/know more than you or I) have an angle here, so if you have to play the game, play the Seahawks. Also, knowing both teams will likely fire their coaches after the season, its fair to assume Pete Carroll’s players have more motivation to fight hard for their coach on his way out (compared to Nagy who does not have the respect of his team).

Prediction: Seahawks 31, Bears 17

The Picks: Seahawks -6.5, OVER 42.5

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