NFL Football Best Bets: Week 16 (2021)

Ryan’s Season Totals

Best Bets: 27-16, Up 1358%

Another winning week, yet I have to say it still stung knowing we were .5 points away from a 3-0 week! Either way, let’s look at this week’s picks:

Best Bet #1: Washington Football Team vs Dallas Cowboys OVER 46.5 (-105)

This play starts in one of our favorite places: Large disparity between betting slip volume and betting money wagered. As mentioned before this is a great indication that the sharps are on one side, and possibly have an angle that less smart people are not aware of. Currently 76% of the total bets placed have been put on the UNDER, yet 80% of the total money wagered hse been put on the OVER.

Second, we’re already getting some closing line value here, as this number has moved DOWN from 47.5 to 46.5 (coincidentally, two numbers between where these teams actually ended up in total points two weeks ago=47).

And most important, according to PFF, this matchup has the 5th best NET OFF v DEF Grade ((OFF1 grade – DEF2 grade) – (OFF2 grade – DEF1 grade)) between offense and defense in week 15:

Washington Football Team76.572.859.678.269.864.179.766.366.966.775.952.375.95.424.9
Dallas Cowboys90.185.879.477.681.280.386.167.444.559.476.280.180.419.5

All of this leads us to feel the OVER is a solid play here.

Bet: Washington Football Team vs Dallas Cowboys OVER 46.5 (-105)

Best Bet #2: Tua Tagovailoa OVER .5 Interceptions (possibly 1.5, if price is right)

The line for this one hasn’t come out yet, given all the COVID issues on the other side of the locker room, but we feel this will be a strong play around -120, and even the  “OVER 1.5 Interceptions” as long as you get it at +135 or better.

We have a couple factors pointing us in this direction:

To start, Tua is currently the MOST aggressive QB in the league, based on NFL Next Gen Stats . Meaning he is throwing into tight windows more than any QB in the league (19.2% of his throws). Coupled with a very strong Saints Pass Defense (6th best according to PFF), we’re already looking at an environment ripe for turnovers. 

But the strongest reason for this play is HOW the Saints run their defense. The Saints run a ton of man on defense (#3 most in the NFL), and Tua has had a lot of trouble vs Man this season. Versus zone, Tua produces .192 EPA/play with a 52% success rate. Versus man, it drops to .053 EPA/play and 44% success rate.

That’s 3 telling matchup stats that point us towards Tua throwing 1-3 picks this game.

Bet : Tua Tagovailoa OVER .5 Interceptions (if above -120)

Best Bet #3: Seattle Seahawks -6.5 vs. Chicago Bears (-110)

There are two strong reasons for this play.

The first really comes down to motivation/the subjective side of things. Both teams are in the very unique position where they are officially OUT of the playoffs, yet have no incentive to lose/tank, as neither have their first round draft pick. Yet, knowing both teams are likely to fire their head coaches next year, we feel the Seahawks players actually respect their coach, whereas the Bears players couldn’t care less about theirs. With that, we feel there is a stronger likelihood you have players wanting to fight for their team on ONLY one side of this game (the Seahawks).

The second reason really comes down to market factors. Despite 58% of the betting tickets siding with the Bears at +6.5, 99% of the cash is on the Seahawks -6.5! This is a glaring tell that sharps (those wagering large sums of money/know more than you or I) have an angle here, so if you have to play the game, play the Seahawks.

Bet: Seattle Seahawks -6.5 vs. Chicago Bears (-110)

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