Week 14 – Detroit Lions at Denver Broncos

The Detroit Lions finally got off the schneid last week, with a roller coaster win over the Vikings. Yet still holding the worst record in the NFL, Football Outsiders projects the Lions have a 49.4% chance to get the first overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft. As for Denver, their playoff hopes are still alive, but took a significant hit last week (dropping 11% points) and sit at 18%. 

Ryan’s Season Totals

Assigned Games: 16-16-1 

Best Bets: 23-14, Up 1098%


  • Opening Line: Denver -10
  • Current Line: Denver -8
  • Over/Under: 42
  • Location: Mile High Stadium, Denver, CO
  • Start Time: 4:05 PM EST, SUN 12/12
  • Last Meeting: Broncos, 27, Lions 17 at Denver in 2019


The 2021 Broncos have had a bit of an up-and-down vibe to the season. Albeit a predictive one. With the addition of Teddy Bridewater, and a strong start to the year, fans had hope. Yet that early season performance was propped up by weak opponents, that made the upcoming “backslide” appear more like a “back to earth situation” for a middle of the road team. Then came upsets over two strong teams over the Cowboys and Chargers. Hence its tough to truly pinpoint where this team “is”, sitting at a very mediocre 18th by DVOA.

The Lions did finally win A game last week, but remain a dumpster fire. Any romanticizing of “the underdogs that fight hard for their coach” has worn off, and are simply a team that has no incentive to win, and every incentive to continue to lose.


  • Broncos are 3-6 ATS in their last nine games.
  • The UNDER is 6-0 in the last six Broncos games.
  • The UNDER is 8-2 in the Lions last 10 games

Bottom Line

Teams that win their first game this late in the season, especially with a first time coach, go 0-4/1-3 ATS the following week. In other words, you can expect a bit of a dip in motivation the week after. Because of this, we have to back the Broncos (but not at this price).

Prediction: Broncos 20, Lions 12The Picks: Lions +10, UNDER 42

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