The Packers come into this matchup off their BYE week, and have a strong rest advantage. Chicago is coming off a loss to the Cardinals that was actually worse than the final score depicted. Outside of the motivation of beating your rivals (which players really don’t care about in the NFL), this game means nothing for the Bears, who essentially are out of the playoffs. Whereas, the Packers are fighting for a better seed in the NFC Playoffs.
Ryan’s Season Totals
Assigned Games: 16-16-1
Best Bets: 23-14, Up 1098%
Details
- Opening Line: Green Bay -12.5
- Current Line: Green Bay -12.5
- Over/Under: 43
- Location: Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI
- Start Time: 8:20 PM EST, SUN 12/12
- Last Meeting: Packers, 24, Bears 14 in Chicago earlier this year.
OverviewThe 2021 Chicago Bears turned into just another of a long line of teams that came in with potential, but were held back by injuries, bad coaching and poor Quarterback play. Sitting at 26th by DVOA, the Bears season has turned more into a very long 2022 preseason for their young QB, Justin Fields to develop.
Equally fitting, and frankly expected, the Packers are gaining steam and beginning to look like a very strong bet to come out atop a relatively weaker NFC field. Coming in at 10th by DVOA, are led by the strong play of QB Aaron Rogers (8th highest graded passer by PFF), who’s been painfully consistent grading out at 64 or higher in all but 2 games this season.
Trends
- The Bears are 4-8 against the spread this season.
- The Bears have covered just once in their last seven games.
- The under is 8-4 in Green Bay’s 12 games this season.
Bottom LineBeyond simply being a better team top to bottom, a situational advantage coming off their bye, Green Bay possesses a few tactical advantages at play. Specifically the amount of Dime defense, and Man coverage they play, both tactics Fields performs relatively worse against. Rogers shouldn’t have an issue putting up more points than the Bears.
Prediction: Packers 38, Bears 21
The Picks: Packers -12.5, OVER 43