With a solid win over a strong Vikings team last week, the 49ers added 24% points to their playoff chances, sitting now at 83.8% according to the Football Outsiders Playoff Odds. The Seahawks, as predicted, didn’t have a lot of fight left vs Washington and now have less than a 1% chance of making the playoffs, essentially ending their season.
Ryan’s Season Totals
Assigned Games: 15-15-1
Best Bets: 22-12, Up 1198%
- Opening Line: San Francisco -3.5
- Current Line: San Francisco -3.5
- Over/Under: 45.5
- Location: Lumen Field, Seattle, WA
- Start Time: 4:25 PM EST, SUN 12/5
- Last Meeting: Seahawks 28, 49ers 21, earlier this season in Santa Clara
The 49ers came into the 2021 season riding a wave of positive regression. From being #1 Yards per Points, #1 Fumble Recovery Luck to #4 as a 3rd Down rebound team, mathematical variance was in their cards. This is all not to mention, the injury luck that should have come their way (although there have been multiple studies that show Santa Clara may be the causal variable in the 49ers insane lack of luck in the injury department). Additionally, the 49ers made what seemed to be sound offseason moves (at least in free agency) adding multiple pass rushers that had legit pressure numbers.
As for the Seahawks, Pete Carroll has clearly landed himself in the “Bad Tactical Coach, yet good Motivator” group with multiple pieces of strategic evidence. Most clear to us coming into the season, and still true today is his use of certain offensive personnel sets. The Seahawks, both in 2020 and 2021 were far more successful on a play-by-play basis in 12 (1 RB, 2 TE) personnel, than 11. Yet, they refuse to see this split and use it to their advantage, look below to see how obvious this is:
|2020||12 Personnel||11 Personnel|
|Successful Play Rate||62%||48%|
|2021||12 Personnel||11 Personnel|
|Successful Play Rate||58%||44%|
Not surprisingly, the 49ers have a strong coaching advantage in this game, as EDJ Sports lists Pete Caroll as the 32nd rated coach by 4th down decision making this season with 49ers HC Shanahan coming in at #9. Additionally, given the Seahawks are coming off a Monday Night game, there is a rest advantage for the 49ers here. Between that, the lack of home field advantage Alex Kemp’s crew will likely give (typically a strength for Seattle) and the fact that the 49ers, now a better team, lost the first match (and its natural tendency towards the mean) we are leaning towards the 49ers here.
- The 49ers are 5-6 against the spread this season.
- The Seahawks are 5-5 against the spread this season.
- Seattle is just 1-2 against the spread in games vs. division opponents this season.
Pete Carroll is at a point where his subjective value is no longer outweighing his objective inefficiencies, and frankly, can no longer be called a “good coach”. These two teams are on completely opposite sides of the “motivation spectrum” and can’t see the Seahawks putting up much of a fight.