The Bengals come in this matchup with a significant “rest advantage” coming off of their bye. The Raiders on the other hand came off an embarrassing loss to the Chiefs, where they really had no chance of winning according to EDJ Sports, despite being only a +2.5 dog (hope you cashed in our bet of the week there).
Ryan’s Season Totals
Assigned Games: 12-12-1
Best Bets: 19-9, Up 1158%
- Opening Line: Cincinnati -1
- Current Line: Cincinnati -1
- Over/Under: 50.5
- Location: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV
- Start Time: 4:05 PM EST, SUN 11/21
- Last Meeting: Raiders 17, Bengals 10 in Philadelphia, Oakland in 2019
On paper, these teams appear to be very evenly matched. According to Football Outsiders, the Raiders come in as the 23rd rated team by DVOA, and the Bengals as the 25th. The big separator between the two, has been in consistency. By DVOA variance the Raiders are ranked 14th, Bengals at 28th. Translation: Although these teams have performed relatively similarly over the course of the whole season, the Raiders have been far more steady week-in-and-week-out.
Before going into the “onfield” matchups of this game, there are a couple advantages already in the Raiders favor. For one, according to the EDJ Sports Coach Rankings, they have a legit coaching advantage. Second, looking at the referee assignments this week, Jerome Boger heads this staff in this game. And according to the Pro Football Reference, he has called 1-4% less penalties on home teams since 2020, lending to a true home field advantage effect.
From a tactical standpoint there are a couple data points that standout. The Raiders have a strong Pass Rush advantage, on BOTH sides of the ball according to PFF. On the flip side, there has been a well-documented “Carr Deep Ball” resurgence since HC Jon Gruden has been gone, but much of that was based on an ADOT when blitzd (11.0) vs clean (7.0), and the Bengals only bring 5+ rushers at the 18th highest level.
- Cincinnati is 7-2 against the spread (ATS) in its last nine games against Las Vegas.
- Las Vegas is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games this season.
- The total has hit the over in 14 of Cincinnati’s last 20 games against AFC opponents.
These are one of those games that will come down to “Good Carr” vs “Bad Carr”. Yet, at the same time this game also feels one of those that the Bengals “shouldn’t be a favorite”, with that, I think the Raiders are the only way to go.
Prediction: Raiders 24, Bengals 20