Denver comes into this matchup off a big upset win vs the Cowboys, while the Eagles couldn’t survive their “roller coaster” contest last week, taking a loss to the Chargers. Both teams enter with an “outside-looking-in” view of the playoff picture, with the Eagles sitting at a 17% chance of making the playoffs, and Broncos at 37%.
Ryan’s Season Totals
Assigned Games: 10-11
Best Bets: 16-9, Up 858%
- Opening Line: Denver -2.5
- Current Line: Denver -2.5
- Over/Under: 46
- Location: Mile High Stadium, Denver, CO
- Start Time: 4:25 PM EST, SUN 11/14
- Last Meeting: Eagles 51, Broncos 23 in Philadelphia, PA in 2017
Both teams come into this game pretty close in rank, by both PFF (15h and 16th) and Football Outsiders (20th and 19th) rankings. Yet when you dive a little deeper you find a few interesting advanced matchup splits to consider. To start, Eagles QB is one of only a couple QB’s that year-over-year has shown a consistent better performance vs. zone defenses. This year, according to the SIS Datahub, Hurts has averaged .24 EPA/play vs Zone defenses, but .03 EPA/play vs man. That’s almost an 8x bump to performance vs zone. Yet, the Broncos run one of the most “man-heavy” defenses in the league.
On the other side, the Eagles defensive identity this season has been: Heavy Middle-Field-Open (MFO, or two safeties split deep, instead of one deep S), and sit back in zone to keep everything in front of them. Well, it turns out Broncos QB Teddy Bridgewater has an unusual split: 56% Success rate vs MFC/Single High Safety looks, but a 45% success rate vs MFO/Double High S looks. This could mean trouble for Teddy and the Broncos offense. Additionally, Teddy has an odd split, performing BETTER when blitzed (44 % vs 57% success rates) than rushed by only 3-4, yet the Eagles don’t blitz (26th most). All of this leads me to believe this may be a defensive ball game.
- The Eagles are 2-4 straight-up (SU) in their last six games in Denver.
- The Broncos are 2-4 ATS in the last six games.
- The UNDER is 7-2 in the Broncos’ last nine games.
This game is so close it may come down to coaching. And given the EDJ Sports puts the Eagles HC at 12, but Broncos HC at 21, we will side with the Eagles here. However, we feel strongly on the Under here. There are just too many solid indicators pointing to a defensive game.
Prediction: Eagles 16, Broncos 14