Referee Adjusted Home Field Advantage for Week 10

Home Field Advantage exists in the NFL, yet is mostly a function of the human element provided by referees. This has been documented by Freakonomics recently, and has been an angle we have used for a couple year now. You can read more in 

Rethinking Home Field Advantage Part I

Rethinking Home Field Advantage Part II

With that said, we thought we would disclose a basic, more realistic “home-field adjustment” for your models. Core data thanks to our friends at Pro Football Reference:

HomeVisitorHome%HWin%TotYdsPen/GYds/GRel % of H Pen.HWin%Pen/GYds/G*Adj. HFAo/u lean
Land ClarkLionsSteelers556247.01%0.75%117100414.63125.5-1.69%0.26%1.9514.93Under
Shawn HochuliEaglesBroncos595452.21%0.13%11397214.13121.53.51%-0.36%1.4510.93-0.5Under
Scott NovakBillsJets566546.28%0.25%12195015.13118.75-2.42%-0.24%2.458.181
Brad RogersBuccaneersWAS525150.49%0.50%10393612.881171.79%0.01%0.26.43
Craig WrolstadFalconsCowboys454947.87%0.29%9480313.43114.71-0.83%-0.20%0.754.14
Ron TorbertRavensDolphins375042.53%0.50%8790810.88113.5-6.17%0.01%-1.82.932
Clay MartinVikingsChargers444847.83%0.50%9287611.5109.5-0.87%0.01%-1.18-1.07
Adrian HillPanthersCardinals446042.31%0.75%10487513109.38-6.39%0.26%0.32-1.192
Brad AllenSeahawksPackers415542.71%0.50%9684212105.25-5.99%0.01%-0.68-5.322
Jerome BogerSaintsTitans464948.42%0.50%9581911.88102.38-0.28%0.01%-0.8-8.19
Tony CorrenteJaguarsColts484949.48%0.38%9781212.13101.50.78%-0.11%-0.55-9.07
John HusseyBrownsPatriots514254.84%0.63%9381011.63101.256.14%0.14%-1.05-9.32-1
Shawn SmithRams49ers494353.26%0.63%9271311.589.134.56%0.14%-1.18-21.44-1OVER
Bill VinovichChiefsRaiders353847.95%0.63%736319.1378.88-0.75%0.14%-3.55-31.69OVER

Mind you, these are not outright recommendations. Simply, proper adjustments (vs. some silly 3 points) to make on your picks THIS week based on what we have seen from the referee crews for this week.

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