Home Field Advantage exists in the NFL, yet is mostly a function of the human element provided by referees. This has been documented by Freakonomics recently, and has been an angle we have used for a couple year now. You can read more in
Rethinking Home Field Advantage Part I
Rethinking Home Field Advantage Part II
With that said, we thought we would disclose a basic, more realistic “home-field adjustment” for your models. Core data thanks to our friends at Pro Football Reference:
Home | Visitor | Home% | HWin% | Tot | Yds | Pen/G | Yds/G | Rel % of H Pen. | HWin% | Pen/G | Yds/G | *Adj. HFA | o/u lean | |||
Land Clark | Lions | Steelers | 55 | 62 | 47.01% | 0.75% | 117 | 1004 | 14.63 | 125.5 | -1.69% | 0.26% | 1.95 | 14.93 | Under | |
Shawn Hochuli | Eagles | Broncos | 59 | 54 | 52.21% | 0.13% | 113 | 972 | 14.13 | 121.5 | 3.51% | -0.36% | 1.45 | 10.93 | -0.5 | Under |
Scott Novak | Bills | Jets | 56 | 65 | 46.28% | 0.25% | 121 | 950 | 15.13 | 118.75 | -2.42% | -0.24% | 2.45 | 8.18 | 1 | |
Brad Rogers | Buccaneers | WAS | 52 | 51 | 50.49% | 0.50% | 103 | 936 | 12.88 | 117 | 1.79% | 0.01% | 0.2 | 6.43 | ||
Craig Wrolstad | Falcons | Cowboys | 45 | 49 | 47.87% | 0.29% | 94 | 803 | 13.43 | 114.71 | -0.83% | -0.20% | 0.75 | 4.14 | ||
Ron Torbert | Ravens | Dolphins | 37 | 50 | 42.53% | 0.50% | 87 | 908 | 10.88 | 113.5 | -6.17% | 0.01% | -1.8 | 2.93 | 2 | |
Clay Martin | Vikings | Chargers | 44 | 48 | 47.83% | 0.50% | 92 | 876 | 11.5 | 109.5 | -0.87% | 0.01% | -1.18 | -1.07 | ||
Adrian Hill | Panthers | Cardinals | 44 | 60 | 42.31% | 0.75% | 104 | 875 | 13 | 109.38 | -6.39% | 0.26% | 0.32 | -1.19 | 2 | |
Brad Allen | Seahawks | Packers | 41 | 55 | 42.71% | 0.50% | 96 | 842 | 12 | 105.25 | -5.99% | 0.01% | -0.68 | -5.32 | 2 | |
Jerome Boger | Saints | Titans | 46 | 49 | 48.42% | 0.50% | 95 | 819 | 11.88 | 102.38 | -0.28% | 0.01% | -0.8 | -8.19 | ||
Tony Corrente | Jaguars | Colts | 48 | 49 | 49.48% | 0.38% | 97 | 812 | 12.13 | 101.5 | 0.78% | -0.11% | -0.55 | -9.07 | ||
John Hussey | Browns | Patriots | 51 | 42 | 54.84% | 0.63% | 93 | 810 | 11.63 | 101.25 | 6.14% | 0.14% | -1.05 | -9.32 | -1 | |
Shawn Smith | Rams | 49ers | 49 | 43 | 53.26% | 0.63% | 92 | 713 | 11.5 | 89.13 | 4.56% | 0.14% | -1.18 | -21.44 | -1 | OVER |
Bill Vinovich | Chiefs | Raiders | 35 | 38 | 47.95% | 0.63% | 73 | 631 | 9.13 | 78.88 | -0.75% | 0.14% | -3.55 | -31.69 | OVER |
Mind you, these are not outright recommendations. Simply, proper adjustments (vs. some silly 3 points) to make on your picks THIS week based on what we have seen from the referee crews for this week.