Referee Adjusted Home Field Advantage for Week 10

Home Field Advantage exists in the NFL, yet is mostly a function of the human element provided by referees. This has been documented by Freakonomics recently, and has been an angle we have used for a couple year now. You can read more in 

Rethinking Home Field Advantage Part I

Rethinking Home Field Advantage Part II

With that said, we thought we would disclose a basic, more realistic “home-field adjustment” for your models. Core data thanks to our friends at Pro Football Reference:

			Home	Visitor	Home%	HWin%	Tot	Yds	Pen/G	Yds/G	Rel % of H Pen.	HWin%	Pen/G	Yds/G	*Adj. HFA	o/u lean
Land Clark	Lions	Steelers	55	62	47.01%	0.75%	117	1004	14.63	125.5	-1.69%	0.26%	1.95	14.93		Under
Shawn Hochuli	Eagles	Broncos	59	54	52.21%	0.13%	113	972	14.13	121.5	3.51%	-0.36%	1.45	10.93	-0.5	Under
Scott Novak	Bills	Jets	56	65	46.28%	0.25%	121	950	15.13	118.75	-2.42%	-0.24%	2.45	8.18	1
Brad Rogers	Buccaneers	WAS	52	51	50.49%	0.50%	103	936	12.88	117	1.79%	0.01%	0.2	6.43
Craig Wrolstad	Falcons	Cowboys	45	49	47.87%	0.29%	94	803	13.43	114.71	-0.83%	-0.20%	0.75	4.14
Ron Torbert	Ravens	Dolphins	37	50	42.53%	0.50%	87	908	10.88	113.5	-6.17%	0.01%	-1.8	2.93	2
Clay Martin	Vikings	Chargers	44	48	47.83%	0.50%	92	876	11.5	109.5	-0.87%	0.01%	-1.18	-1.07
Adrian Hill	Panthers	Cardinals	44	60	42.31%	0.75%	104	875	13	109.38	-6.39%	0.26%	0.32	-1.19	2
Brad Allen	Seahawks	Packers	41	55	42.71%	0.50%	96	842	12	105.25	-5.99%	0.01%	-0.68	-5.32	2
Jerome Boger	Saints	Titans	46	49	48.42%	0.50%	95	819	11.88	102.38	-0.28%	0.01%	-0.8	-8.19
Tony Corrente	Jaguars	Colts	48	49	49.48%	0.38%	97	812	12.13	101.5	0.78%	-0.11%	-0.55	-9.07
John Hussey	Browns	Patriots	51	42	54.84%	0.63%	93	810	11.63	101.25	6.14%	0.14%	-1.05	-9.32	-1
Shawn Smith	Rams	49ers	49	43	53.26%	0.63%	92	713	11.5	89.13	4.56%	0.14%	-1.18	-21.44	-1	OVER
Bill Vinovich	Chiefs	Raiders	35	38	47.95%	0.63%	73	631	9.13	78.88	-0.75%	0.14%	-3.55	-31.69		OVER

Mind you, these are not outright recommendations. Simply, proper adjustments (vs. some silly 3 points) to make on your picks THIS week based on what we have seen from the referee crews for this week.