Week 5 – Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars

Ryan’s Season Totals

Assigned Games: 4-3 (with 2 Underdogs winning outright)

Best Bets: 10-1, Up 1043%


  • Opening Line: Tennessee -4
  • Current Line: Tennessee -4
  • Over/Under: 48.5
  • Location: TIAA Bank Field, Jacksonville, FL
  • Start Time: 1:00 PM, SUN 10/10
  • Last Meeting: Titans 31, Jaguars 10 in Week 14 of the 2020 season


Both teams come into this game off losses they should have won. According to EDJ Sports, you can see, empirically and visibly, how bad their losses really were here. Yet, this will be the second AFC South matchup for both teams, with the Titans winning their first vs. the Colts and the Jaguars losing in week one to the measly Texans. This along with their 0-4 record makes them a legitimate road underdog to the visiting Titans.

Much was said this offseason of how the divorce from the “Ryan Tannehill, Arthur Smith” marriage would affect this offense. Notably, how much their tactical advantages would shift when a heavy Pre Snap Motion AND Play-Action Rate OC leaving would affect a QB with a tumultuous career. Well, as of yet, Tannehill seems to be winning the breakup, posting a top-3 CPOE according to NFL Next Gen Stats, while staying on a somewhat familiar script of giving the ball to Derrick Henry and letting Play-Action drive up his production.

On the flip side, the Jaguars come in with what seemed like a “once-in-a-lifetime” caliber franchise QB, that has at best, yet to reach his potential. Trevor Lawrence is currently leading one of 5 teams that have been more productive running the ball vs passing it (not a good thing). According to rbsdm.com’s passing/rushing EPA grid, the Jaguars, Bears, Browns, Titans and Colts are the only teams that have actually been better running the ball vs. passing it this season. When you realize their opponent, the Titans, and to some degree, the Browns have good reason for this claim to fame, you realize its not good company to share.


  • The Titans have one win ATS (1-1) as a 4.5-point favorite or greater this year.
  • Two of Tennessee’s four games have gone over the point total.
  • Jacksonville has had one game (out of four) hit the over this year.

Bottom Line

The Titans have been trying to recapture the formula that made them successful with a past OC, and doing so with some success. The Jaguars on the other hand, have lost focus and are being led by a coach that likely doesn’t want to be there. There is a major subjective/motivational edge you have to give the Titans here, along with proven on-field productivity, you simply can’t pick any other way.

Prediction: Tennessee 24, Jacksonville 7

The Picks: Tennessee -4, UNDER 48.5

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