Details
- Current Lines
- ATS: Denver Broncos -10.5 (Opened same)
- Moneyline: Denver Broncos -623 / New York Jets +449 (Opened same)
- Total: 41 (Opened same)
- *Breakeven %
- **ATS: 52.4% either way (as always for each team)
- Moneyline: 18.2% New York Jets, 86.2% Denver Broncos
- Total: 50.4% (either way)
- Last meeting: The home Jets beat the Broncos 37-28 in 2020
*Reminder: “Breakeven %” equates to, informally, how confident/probable you would need to be to bet that side, and get a fair/even bet (i.e. it helps bettors understand the pricing/payout/odds all at the same time).
**That extra 2.4 percentage points is the price you pay for a fair ATS bet
Overview
| When the Jets have the Ball | ||||||
| Team | TotalDVOA | WeightedDVOA | Variance | |||
| NYJ OFF | 29 | -35.20% | 29 | -35.20% | 10 | 0.40% |
| DEN DEF | 10 | -12.90% | 10 | -12.90% | 28 | 11.80% |
| When the Broncos have the Ball | ||||||
| Team | TotalDVOA | WeightedDVOA | Variance | |||
| DEN OFF | 4 | 32.90% | 4 | 32.90% | 14 | 0.60% |
| NYJ DEF | 17 | 0.00% | 17 | 0.00% | 15 | 3.10% |
*Based on Football Outsiders DVOA Ratings (Ranking in left column)
Both Denver and New York came into the 2021 season after a down year. Both teams changed QBs, and it’s fair to say (or hope) both team’s “needles are facing up”. Yet the key difference between these two teams, ideally with their best football in front of them, is their timelines. The Broncos clearly made the decision to “play for today”, ignoring the route of taking a rookie QB in the draft, and essentially moving on from QB Drew Lock for the “steady veteran” Teddy Brigewater, who could help support a defensively built football team. The Jets on the other hand, have taken a (dare I say) savvy, longer-termed approach, building from within using the draft to target and acquire players from key positions to build for the long haul. Take that and add a rookie QB that after ONLY having one quality season in college mainly would claim would need some time to develop, you’re probably looking at the Jets still being a year or two away from being legitimate.
Between the early season performances, the natural (additional) home field advantage Denver seems to have early in the season (be it adjusting to altitude or otherwise) or the simple “Always play against Rookie QBs on the road”, this game projects to end in the Broncos favor.
When the Jets have the ball (Broncos Defense)
**Key NEW Injuries:
-NYJ OFF: None
-DEN DEF: None
**Note that Injuries considered are ONLY for players that have played the majority of snaps for their side of the ball WITHIN the DVOA rating/PFF Grade we are using as our base (i.e. only players that helped/hurt performance that we are taking into account, that will NOT/confirmed will NOT play this week
Rookie QB Zach Wilson is coming off a porous early season showing where he averaged more “turnover-worthy” throws than he did “big play” throws getting routed by the Patriots in week 2. It was good to see Mekhi Becton backup, George Fant fill in nicely at LT, posting a 71.6 grade according to PFF. But the problems on offense lie clearly on the young QB’s shoulder (not on the surprisingly #3 most expensive WR unit in the league) as after two week’s Wilson’s “*QB Archetype” looks like this:
| Metric | Rank |
| Time to Throw Rank | 33rd |
| ADOT Rank | 8th |
| Aggressiveness Rank | 25th |
| Expected Completion Rank | 21st |
| +/- Completion Rank | 32nd |
You can read this as: A QB that is holding on to the ball very long, that is taking deep shots, to NOT very tightly covered WRs, is doing so very inaccurately so far.
That kind of performance vs PFF’s 4th highest graded Pass Coverage unit thus far, is clearly an advantage to the defense. Additionally, between the clear mismatch when the ball is actually in the air, we are likely to see Wilson on the ground quite a bit in this game. The Jets come in with a Pass Blocking Grade of 49.9, while the Broncos come in with a Pass Rushing Grade of 63.6.
*QB Archetype is a metric that combines NFL Next Gen Stats data to help summarize the type of QB/Offense a player has been relative to his peers
When the Broncos have the ball (NYJ Defense)
**Key NEW Injuries:
-DEN OFF: None
-NYJ DEF: None
Teddy “Covers” Bridgewater, who is now 37-14 ATS all-time, seems to be just “what the doctor ordered” for a team/coach that wants to win with defense. They are winning with solid running game highlighted by Broken Tackle Machine, Javonte Williams and Bridgewater’s conservative, yet efficient play. As a matter of fact, according to Next Gen Stats his current archetype looks like this:
| Metric | Rank |
| Time to Throw Rank | 34th |
| ADOT Rank | 7th |
| Aggressiveness Rank | 16th |
| Expected Completion Rank | 17th |
| +/- Completion Rank | 2nd |
Note how similar Brigewater is to Wilson with ONE exception, the most important: accuracy. Basically, Brigewater is taking a lot of time to throw, pushing the ball downfield, but doing so very accurately. They should not have much of an issue with the Jets Defense.
Concerning the Jets defense: I had a note written during my preseason research: “Should have a solid pass rush, but issues with coverage”. Currently, according to PFF the Jets Defense has a 68.2 Pass Rush Grade and 54.2 Coverage grade. Yet, from a matchup perspective the Broncos should be fine given they have the 5th graded Pass Pro vs the Jets 18th ranked rush.
Trends
- (As mentioned) Bridgewater is 37-14 ATS all-time
- The Jets were 1-3 ATS last season as dogs of 10.5 or higher
Bottom Line
This is a really tough spot to bet. Across two key numbers, unless this somehow drops to 9.5, officially I would say stay away. Again, we are confident in a Broncos win, but it’s very likely to be right at a “10-point win”.
Pick: If you have to play someone, take the Broncos heads up, Jets with the points, but again I recommend staying away from this one unless the ATS number goes down on the Broncos.