What WR hated Man Coverage the most in 2020?

By now you know that FPS leverages “Matchup-Based” variables to derive value in both props and fantasy markets. If you are familiar with our work in Coverage Elasticity, we dove into a similar breakdown before (from another lens). Given that, we thought it would be interesting to see what TE/WRs last season performed best vs man or zone coverage.

*Thanks to our friends at SIS and their datahub for the statistical breakdowns.

To start, it would be interesting to review how offenses were played against (i.e. given how much man or zone they saw relative to the norm):

Team	MAN	ZONE tot	Man %	MORE MAN than exp
Jets	203	292	41%	9%
Bills	211	338	38%	6%
Titans	181	291	38%	6%
Dolphins	199	321	38%	6%
Patriots	155	261	37%	5%
Giants	197	332	37%	5%
Packers	166	292	36%	4%
Eagles	215	382	36%	4%
Texans	207	374	36%	4%
Steelers	181	352	34%	2%
Colts	158	310	34%	2%
Jaguars	201	398	34%	2%
Raiders	177	354	33%	1%
Chargers	186	378	33%	1%
Bengals	186	379	33%	1%
Buccaneers	161	343	32%	0%
Broncos	166	367	31%	-1%
Bears	181	407	31%	-1%
Vikings	147	341	30%	-2%
Rams	156	374	29%	-3%
Panthers	150	373	29%	-3%
Browns	138	345	29%	-3%
Seahawks	164	411	29%	-3%
Lions	151	383	28%	-4%
Cowboys	163	423	28%	-4%
Chiefs	156	411	28%	-4%
49ers	143	378	27%	-5%
Football Team	151	404	27%	-5%
Saints	127	347	27%	-5%
Falcons	146	414	26%	-6%
Ravens	102	337	23%	-9%
Cardinals	125	415	23%	-9%

For whatever reason the Jets saw way more man than other teams. Additionally, the Bills, Titans, Dolphins, Patriots, Giants, Packers, Eagles and Texans all saw a 4% or higher margin of man coverage in 2020.

On the flip side (using a somewhat arbitrary cutoff, yet eyeballing the most significant drop-off) the Cardinals and Ravens saw 9% MORE zone coverage than the NFL average.

Now to the individual level…

Below you will find the breakdown of EPA per target produced by pass catchers, broken down by Man (m) and Zone (z) coverage, ranked by how well a pass catcher performed better vs Man Coverage

Player	Team	Pos	mEPA Per Tgt	zEPA Per Tgt	20 Better VS Man
George Kittle	49ers	TE	1.18	0.18	1
Rob Gronkowski	Buccaneers	TE	0.84	-0.11	0.95
Anthony Miller	Bears	WR	0.45	-0.16	0.61
Will Fuller V	Texans	WR	0.96	0.36	0.6
Justin Jefferson	Vikings	WR	0.85	0.3	0.55
K.J. Hamler	Broncos	WR	0.13	-0.32	0.45
Jalen Guyton	Chargers	WR	0.51	0.07	0.44
Tyler Boyd	Bengals	WR	0.51	0.09	0.42
Robby Anderson	Panthers	WR	0.45	0.04	0.41
Alvin Kamara	Saints	RB	0.6	0.25	0.35
Zach Pascal	Colts	WR	0.54	0.2	0.34
Davante Adams	Packers	WR	0.63	0.31	0.32
JuJu Smith-Schuster	Steelers	WR	0.32	0.05	0.27
Jamison Crowder	Jets	WR	0.24	-0.02	0.26
Trey Burton	Colts	TE	0.11	-0.14	0.25
Keenan Allen	Chargers	WR	0.28	0.04	0.24
Evan Engram	Giants	TE	-0.11	-0.35	0.24
James Washington	Steelers	WR	0.12	-0.09	0.21
Michael Pittman Jr.	Colts	WR	0.32	0.12	0.2
Tyler Lockett	Seahawks	WR	0.5	0.33	0.17
Damiere Byrd	Patriots	WR	0.26	0.1	0.16
DeVante Parker	Dolphins	WR	0.39	0.25	0.14
Terry McLaurin	Football Team	WR	0.34	0.2	0.14
Noah Fant	Broncos	TE	0.17	0.05	0.12
DeAndre Hopkins	Cardinals	WR	0.47	0.35	0.12
Gabriel Davis	Bills	WR	0.32	0.2	0.12
Eric Ebron	Steelers	TE	0.04	-0.08	0.12
Stefon Diggs	Bills	WR	0.48	0.37	0.11
Darius Slayton	Giants	WR	0.18	0.09	0.09
Jared Cook	Saints	TE	0.22	0.14	0.08
Greg Ward	Eagles	WR	0.21	0.13	0.08
Breshad Perriman	Jets	WR	-0.08	-0.13	0.05
DK Metcalf	Seahawks	WR	0.49	0.44	0.05
Tee Higgins	Bengals	WR	0.48	0.43	0.05
Brandon Aiyuk	49ers	WR	0.15	0.1	0.05
A.J. Brown	Titans	WR	0.49	0.45	0.04
Chase Claypool	Steelers	WR	0.31	0.29	0.02
Tyler Eifert	Jaguars	TE	-0.16	-0.18	0.02
Darren Waller	Raiders	TE	0.35	0.33	0.02
John Brown	Bills	WR	0.18	0.17	0.01
T.J. Hockenson	Lions	TE	0.06	0.07	-0.01
Tyler Higbee	Rams	TE	0.47	0.52	-0.05
Logan Thomas	Football Team	TE	-0.06	0.01	-0.07
Jordan Akins	Texans	TE	0.24	0.36	-0.12
Cooper Kupp	Rams	WR	0.11	0.28	-0.17
Adam Thielen	Vikings	WR	0.2	0.39	-0.19
Golden Tate	Giants	WR	0.09	0.28	-0.19
Allen Robinson	Bears	WR	0.04	0.24	-0.2
Zach Ertz	Eagles	TE	-0.36	-0.16	-0.2
Curtis Samuel	Panthers	WR	0.25	0.45	-0.2
Chris Conley	Jaguars	WR	0.08	0.31	-0.23
Marvin Jones	Lions	WR	0.11	0.35	-0.24
Laviska Shenault	Jaguars	WR	0.11	0.35	-0.24
Dallas Goedert	Eagles	TE	0.09	0.34	-0.25
Russell Gage	Falcons	WR	0.07	0.33	-0.26
Mike Gesicki	Dolphins	TE	-0.03	0.23	-0.26
Keelan Cole	Jaguars	WR	0.02	0.3	-0.28
Henry Ruggs	Raiders	WR	0.03	0.34	-0.31
Robert Tonyan	Packers	TE	0.51	0.91	-0.4
Gerald Everett	Rams	TE	-0.38	0.04	-0.42
Jonnu Smith	Titans	TE	-0.17	0.26	-0.43
Brandin Cooks	Texans	WR	0.07	0.52	-0.45
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	Packers	WR	0.02	0.57	-0.55
Christian Kirk	Cardinals	WR	-0.5	0.24	-0.74
N’Keal Harry	Patriots	WR	-0.47	0.28	-0.75

As you can see in the last column the lower a player is ranked in this chart the BETTER they performed vs zone coverage and vice versa.

Taking this a step further, as we always do, we thought it would be interesting to see how well a WR/TE performed vs all coverages:

Player	Team	Pos	0/1 EPA Per Tgt	2 EPA Per Tgt	3 EPA Per Tgt	4 EPA Per Tgt
Justin Jefferson	Vikings	WR	0.85	0.05	0.23	0.42
Stefon Diggs	Bills	WR	0.48	0.64	0.2	0.43
Davante Adams	Packers	WR	0.63	0.86	0.46	-0.76
A.J. Brown	Titans	WR	0.49	-0.63	0.76
Keenan Allen	Chargers	WR	0.28	0.73	-0.21	-0.08
Robby Anderson	Panthers	WR	0.45	-0.2	-0.04	0.36
DeAndre Hopkins	Cardinals	WR	0.47	0.42	0.42	0.23
DK Metcalf	Seahawks	WR	0.49	0.67	0.53	-0.06
Cooper Kupp	Rams	WR	0.11		0.42	0.26
Calvin Ridley	Falcons	WR	0.41	0.78	0.38	0.7
Will Fuller V	Texans	WR	0.96		0.26
Terry McLaurin	Football Team	WR	0.34	0.88	0.01	0.13
Allen Robinson	Bears	WR	0.04	-0.3	0.5	0.1
Darren Waller	Raiders	TE	0.35	0.28	0.44	0.41
Tyler Boyd	Bengals	WR	0.51		0.16	0.07
Corey Davis	Titans	WR	0.54		0.73	0.44
Tee Higgins	Bengals	WR	0.48		0.42	-0.11
Tim Patrick	Broncos	WR	0.59		-0.15
Jamison Crowder	Jets	WR	0.24		-0.06
Travis Kelce	Chiefs	TE	0.37	0.56	0.35	0.41
Brandin Cooks	Texans	WR	0.07		0.56	0.21
Tyreek Hill	Chiefs	WR	0.89	0.51	0.42	0.28
George Kittle	49ers	TE	1.18		-0.03	0.29
Darius Slayton	Giants	WR	0.18		0.22	-0.18
Noah Fant	Broncos	TE	0.17	-0.31	0.07	0.36
DeVante Parker	Dolphins	WR	0.39		0.04	0.48
Rob Gronkowski	Buccaneers	TE	0.84	-0.05	-0.19
Tyler Lockett	Seahawks	WR	0.5	0.1	0.36	0.42
Mike Gesicki	Dolphins	TE	-0.03	0.05	0.05	0.39
Curtis Samuel	Panthers	WR	0.25	0.25	0.51	0.55
Amari Cooper	Cowboys	WR	0.39	0.3	0.17	0.18
Brandon Aiyuk	49ers	WR	0.15		0.04
Marvin Jones	Lions	WR	0.11	1.22	0.11	0.21
Nelson Agholor	Raiders	WR	0.43		0.77	0
Zach Pascal	Colts	WR	0.54		0.27	0.34
Russell Gage	Falcons	WR	0.07	0.81	0.44	0.09
Alvin Kamara	Saints	RB	0.6	0.03	0.65
Adam Thielen	Vikings	WR	0.2		0.57	0.05
John Brown	Bills	WR	0.18	0.32
Breshad Perriman	Jets	WR	-0.08		0.13
Cole Beasley	Bills	WR	0.46	0.56	0.71	0.72
James Washington	Steelers	WR	0.12		0.18
T.Y. Hilton	Colts	WR	0.14		0.31	0.5
Laviska Shenault	Jaguars	WR	0.11		0.27
Chase Claypool	Steelers	WR	0.31	0.3	0.27	0.2
T.J. Hockenson	Lions	TE	0.06		-0.06	0.35
Mike Evans	Buccaneers	WR	0.14		0.49
Logan Thomas	Football Team	TE	-0.06		-0.14	0.23
Sterling Shepard	Giants	WR	-0.11		0.39
Jarvis Landry	Browns	WR	0.2	0.38	0.75	0.44
Michael Pittman Jr.	Colts	WR	0.32		0.68
JuJu Smith-Schuster	Steelers	WR	0.32	0.02	0	0.2
Hunter Renfrow	Raiders	WR	0.08	0.4	0.8	0.96
Tyler Higbee	Rams	TE	0.47		0.6
Keelan Cole	Jaguars	WR	0.02	-0.01	0.47	0.3
Anthony Miller	Bears	WR	0.45	-0.61	-0.43
Robert Tonyan	Packers	TE	0.51		0.9
Darnell Mooney	Bears	WR	0.01		0.1	-0.33
Jakobi Meyers	Patriots	WR	0.17		0.17	0.39
Greg Ward	Eagles	WR	0.21		-0.19
Denzel Mims	Jets	WR	-0.01		-0.21
Hunter Henry	Chargers	TE	-0.01	0.56	0.08	0.55
Christian Kirk	Cardinals	WR	-0.5		0.45	0.13
Gabriel Davis	Bills	WR	0.32		0.21
Dallas Goedert	Eagles	TE	0.09		0.24
Trey Burton	Colts	TE	0.11
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	Packers	WR	0.02		0.5	0.83
Evan Engram	Giants	TE	-0.11		-0.1	-0.61
Jimmy Graham	Bears	TE	0.13	0.35	0.06	0.04
Diontae Johnson	Steelers	WR	-0.01	0.02	0.27
Jonnu Smith	Titans	TE	-0.17		0.59
DJ Chark Jr	Jaguars	WR	0.06	0.28	0.35
Michael Thomas	Saints	WR	-0.16		0.47
Golden Tate	Giants	WR	0.09		0.02
Jordan Akins	Texans	TE	0.24		0.25
CeeDee Lamb	Cowboys	WR	-0.13	0.35	0.22	0.5
Jared Cook	Saints	TE	0.22		0.66	-0.45
Sammy Watkins	Chiefs	WR	0.23		0.44
Michael Gallup	Cowboys	WR	0.09	-0.06	0.23	0.4
Chris Conley	Jaguars	WR	0.08		-0.05
Tyler Eifert	Jaguars	TE	-0.16	-0.87	0.14	-0.02
Julio Jones	Falcons	WR	0.26	0.37	1.13	0.78
Jalen Guyton	Chargers	WR	0.51		0.46
Mark Andrews	Ravens	TE	0.23		0.26	0.63
Eric Ebron	Steelers	TE	0.04		0.21	-0.29
Travis Fulgham	Eagles	WR	-0.22		0.55	0.79
Gerald Everett	Rams	TE	-0.38		-0.1	0.43
K.J. Hamler	Broncos	WR	0.13		-0.08
Dalton Schultz	Cowboys	TE	0.04	0	0.58	0.08
DJ Moore	Panthers	WR	0.03	0.56	-0.06	0.44
Emmanuel Sanders	Saints	WR	0.3	1.14	0.35	0.33
Chris Godwin	Buccaneers	WR	0.48	0.55	0.61
A.J. Green	Bengals	WR	-0.4	0.35	-0.15	0.2
Mike Williams	Chargers	WR	0.12		0.4	0.3
Robert Woods	Rams	WR	-0.17		0.17
N’Keal Harry	Patriots	WR	-0.47		0.25
Josh Reynolds	Rams	WR	0.08		0.12	0.75
Damiere Byrd	Patriots	WR	0.26		-0.26	0.45
Jeff Smith	Jets	WR	-0.41		-0.03
Randall Cobb	Texans	WR	0.37		0.92
Henry Ruggs	Raiders	WR	0.03		0.24
Jerry Jeudy	Broncos	WR	-0.35	0.98	0.42	-0.85
Kendrick Bourne	49ers	WR	0.39		0.54
J.D. McKissic	Football Team	RB	-0.32	-0.19	-0.06	0.08
Zach Ertz	Eagles	TE	-0.36		-0.17	0

To better visualize this, here is a chart with the top pass catchers (by EPA/target) along with their RANK (in epa/target for that given coverage) to see where WR/TE performed last year:

Player	Team	Pos	0/1 Rk	2 Rk	3 Rk	4 Rk	ALL COV epa/+
Robert Tonyan	Packers	TE	12		3		1
Julio Jones	Falcons	WR	40	20	1	4	2
Will Fuller V	Texans	WR	2		51		3
Corey Davis	Titans	WR	9		8	17	4
Chris Godwin	Buccaneers	WR	19	15	13		5
Randall Cobb	Texans	WR	31		2		6
Cole Beasley	Bills	WR	22	11	9	6	7
Justin Jefferson	Vikings	WR	4	31	57	21	8
Tyler Higbee	Rams	TE	21		14		9
Tyreek Hill	Chiefs	WR	3	16	35	35	10
Jarvis Landry	Browns	WR	50	19	7	16	11
Tim Patrick	Broncos	WR	8		96		12
John Brown	Bills	WR	52	24			13
Nelson Agholor	Raiders	WR	25		5	54	14
Travis Kelce	Chiefs	TE	30	12	44	22	15
Tyler Lockett	Seahawks	WR	14	30	42	20	16
A.J. Brown	Titans	WR	15	45	6		17
George Kittle	49ers	TE	1		83	34	18
Davante Adams	Packers	WR	6	5	28	65	19
DK Metcalf	Seahawks	WR	16	9	21	57	20
Emmanuel Sanders	Saints	WR	38	2	43	31	21
Mike Evans	Buccaneers	WR	57		25		22
Hunter Renfrow	Raiders	WR	69	18	4	1	23
Stefon Diggs	Bills	WR	17	10	63	18	24
Curtis Samuel	Panthers	WR	42	29	22	10	25
Kendrick Bourne	49ers	WR	29		20		26
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	Packers	WR	82		24	2	27
Tee Higgins	Bengals	WR	18		37	59	28
Zach Pascal	Colts	WR	10		49	30	29
Darren Waller	Raiders	TE	32	27	32	23	30
Brandin Cooks	Texans	WR	72		18	40	31
Mike Williams	Chargers	WR	61		39	33	32
Jordan Akins	Texans	TE	44		53		33
Chase Claypool	Steelers	WR	37	26	47	42	34
Mark Andrews	Ravens	TE	46		52	8	35
Adam Thielen	Vikings	WR	49		17	52	36
Calvin Ridley	Falcons	WR	26	7	41	7	37
Jared Cook	Saints	TE	47		11	63	38
DeAndre Hopkins	Cardinals	WR	20	17	36	37	39
Michael Thomas	Saints	WR	93		27		40
Amari Cooper	Cowboys	WR	28	25	65	44	41
Sammy Watkins	Chiefs	WR	45		33		42
Sterling Shepard	Giants	WR	90		40		43
Travis Fulgham	Eagles	WR	97		19	3	44
Gabriel Davis	Bills	WR	36		61		45
Michael Gallup	Cowboys	WR	68	39	58	24	46
Marvin Jones	Lions	WR	63	1	72	39	47
T.Y. Hilton	Colts	WR	56		46	12	48
Jamison Crowder	Jets	WR	43		89		49
Jakobi Meyers	Patriots	WR	54		66	26	50
Russell Gage	Falcons	WR	73	6	31	48	51
Tyler Boyd	Bengals	WR	11		68	51	52
Michael Pittman Jr.	Colts	WR	34		10		53
Rob Gronkowski	Buccaneers	TE	5	38	98		54
Cooper Kupp	Rams	WR	62		38	36	55
Jalen Guyton	Chargers	WR	13		29		56
Keelan Cole	Jaguars	WR	81	37	26	32	57
Laviska Shenault	Jaguars	WR	64		50		58
DeVante Parker	Dolphins	WR	27		78	13	59
DJ Moore	Panthers	WR	79	13	87	15	60
Golden Tate	Giants	WR	67		80		61
Hunter Henry	Chargers	TE	85	14	74	9	62
Chris Conley	Jaguars	WR	70		86		63
Allen Robinson	Bears	WR	76	42	23	47	64
Henry Ruggs	Raiders	WR	80		56		65
Robby Anderson	Panthers	WR	23	41	85	27	66
Terry McLaurin	Football Team	WR	33	4	81	45	67
JuJu Smith-Schuster	Steelers	WR	35	34	82	43	68
Brandon Aiyuk	49ers	WR	55		79		69
Dallas Goedert	Eagles	TE	66		55		70
Damiere Byrd	Patriots	WR	41		102	14	71
Keenan Allen	Chargers	WR	39	8	100	58	72
Mike Gesicki	Dolphins	TE	87	32	77	25	73
Greg Ward	Eagles	WR	48		99		74
Dalton Schultz	Cowboys	TE	78	36	16	49	75
Jonnu Smith	Titans	TE	95		15		76
Alvin Kamara	Saints	RB	7	33	12		77
CeeDee Lamb	Cowboys	WR	92	22	59	11	78
Darius Slayton	Giants	WR	51		60	60	79
Josh Reynolds	Rams	WR	71		71	5	80
DJ Chark Jr	Jaguars	WR	75	28	45		81
Christian Kirk	Cardinals	WR	105		30	46	82
Robert Woods	Rams	WR	96		67		83
Jimmy Graham	Bears	TE	58	21	76	53	84
Noah Fant	Broncos	TE	53	43	75	28	85
Diontae Johnson	Steelers	WR	86	35	48		86
T.J. Hockenson	Lions	TE	74		90	29	87
Anthony Miller	Bears	WR	24	44	103		88
Denzel Mims	Jets	WR	84		101		89
Eric Ebron	Steelers	TE	77		62	61	90
James Washington	Steelers	WR	60		64		91
Darnell Mooney	Bears	WR	83		73	62	92
Gerald Everett	Rams	TE	101		93	19	93
Jerry Jeudy	Broncos	WR	99	3	34	66	94
Logan Thomas	Football Team	TE	88		94	38	95
Breshad Perriman	Jets	WR	89		70		96
N’Keal Harry	Patriots	WR	104		54		97
K.J. Hamler	Broncos	WR	59		91		98
Trey Burton	Colts	TE	65				99
J.D. McKissic	Football Team	RB	98	40	88	50	100
Tyler Eifert	Jaguars	TE	94	46	69	56	101
A.J. Green	Bengals	WR	102	23	95	41	102
Evan Engram	Giants	TE	91		92	64	103
Zach Ertz	Eagles	TE	100		97	55	104
Jeff Smith	Jets	WR	103		84		105

As always we hope that adds some context to what you see on tv.

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