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Analytics has done wonders in answering the age-old questions we’ve had about the game. They’ve explained to us that “defense does NOT win championships“, sold us on “RBs don’t matter” and “You don’t need to run to setup the pass“, just to name a few. However, one challenge that’s escaped “the football analytics field”, even to this day, is separating the value given to the person throwing the ball, vs the person catching the ball. Football Outsiders even admits that a weakness of their flagship metric, DVOA, is not providing a proper split of value on a pass play between QB and WR.
Not that we are going to solve this challenge today, but noting the strength of the PFF grades, and volume of data they have, we thought we’d take a shot by comparing the Passing Grades vs Catching Grades by team, to find which team’s offensive performance is most propped up by the QB, and which are propped up by the WRs. Doing this we hope to take a STEP towards answering this question, or at minimum have some fun supporting barguements of “Without Rogers, we’d suck” or “That QB would be nothing without those WRs”.
And yes, when the PFF grader is giving the QB a rating based on a pass play, he too is likely going to have difficultly in separating if the QB or WR had more/less responsibility for the success (/lack of) for the play. But, we are assuming that the larger sample sizes, across 5 years, taking the comparative data at its margin will at least take us a step in the right direction in determining what team’s pass games were propped up more by QB or WR.
Note: although we keep using “WR”, this grade is not reserved to the WR. This includes any target of a pass in a given season, in aggregate.
Here is how the last few years have shaped out (the higher the number the higher the “ownership” of performance the QB had on a team’s offensive performance):
| OFF | PASS | RECV | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | Mean | ||
| Green Bay Packers | 90.7 | 94.5 | 79.3 | 8.7% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 0.1% | 7.2% | 5.58% | |
| New England Patriots | 76.1 | 64.9 | 70.6 | -4.2% | 3.9% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 5.4% | 3.79% | |
| Seattle Seahawks | 81.9 | 88.8 | 79 | 5.8% | 6.4% | 3.0% | 0.1% | 2.9% | 3.63% | |
| Oakland Raiders | 79.3 | 84.9 | 80.7 | 2.5% | 3.9% | -0.8% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 2.97% | |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 86.6 | 90 | 85.1 | 2.8% | 1.7% | 4.0% | 0.8% | 3.5% | 2.56% | |
| Indianapolis Colts | 82.4 | 76.7 | 77.1 | -0.3% | -4.4% | 8.4% | -3.1% | 7.9% | 1.70% | |
| New Orleans Saints | 79.8 | 69.7 | 78 | -5.6% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 0.5% | 1.28% | |
| Baltimore Ravens | 75.3 | 71.9 | 69.6 | 1.6% | 3.3% | -2.9% | 4.2% | -3.1% | 0.63% | |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 67.3 | 58.4 | 65.6 | -5.8% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 0.55% | |
| Atlanta Falcons | 76.4 | 83.4 | 78.3 | 3.2% | -5.4% | -0.7% | 3.6% | -0.7% | -0.01% | |
| Dallas Cowboys | 71.2 | 69.2 | 74.1 | -3.4% | -1.4% | -1.5% | 1.0% | -2.0% | -1.45% | |
| Buffalo Bills | 86.5 | 87.7 | 86.9 | 0.5% | -7.4% | -8.7% | 6.6% | 1.4% | -1.54% | |
| Detroit Lions | 77.5 | 75 | 78.2 | -2.1% | -4.9% | 2.0% | -6.0% | 2.7% | -1.68% | |
| Minnesota Vikings | 84.3 | 80.7 | 89.9 | -5.4% | 4.1% | -1.1% | -4.2% | -2.1% | -1.73% | |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 69.6 | 69.9 | 69.9 | 0.0% | -10.9% | -1.1% | 0.8% | 0.7% | -2.07% | |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 71.6 | 77.6 | 78.3 | -0.4% | -2.2% | 0.1% | -1.7% | -6.4% | -2.14% | |
| Cleveland Browns | 87.8 | 85.2 | 78.6 | 4.0% | 0.8% | 1.2% | -11.5% | -6.8% | -2.44% | |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 69.8 | 69 | 71.9 | -2.1% | -7.2% | -0.1% | 0.9% | -5.8% | -2.88% | |
| New York Giants | 70 | 73.5 | 70.9 | 1.8% | -4.4% | -11.9% | 3.3% | -5.7% | -3.39% | |
| Washington Redskins | 72.5 | 64.9 | 66.6 | -1.3% | -6.9% | -4.9% | -3.4% | -2.4% | -3.78% | |
| Chicago Bears | 73.5 | 63.7 | 75.2 | -8.3% | -1.4% | -10.8% | 2.6% | -2.1% | -4.01% | |
| Tennessee Titans | 89.3 | 85.5 | 88.2 | -1.6% | -1.4% | -8.0% | -1.8% | -8.1% | -4.17% | |
| Houston Texans | 82.6 | 91.1 | 81.8 | 5.4% | -0.6% | -3.2% | -12.7% | -12.8% | -4.80% | |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 69.1 | 60.8 | 71.5 | -8.1% | 1.2% | 0.4% | -7.3% | -10.3% | -4.81% | |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 86.3 | 92 | 81.6 | 6.0% | -12.0% | -6.2% | -5.0% | -7.4% | -4.93% | |
| Los Angeles Rams | 79.7 | 72 | 75.4 | -2.3% | -6.1% | -3.4% | -1.9% | -12.0% | -5.15% | |
| Arizona Cardinals | 74.5 | 74 | 75.4 | -0.9% | -4.5% | -14.3% | -9.8% | -3.9% | -6.68% | |
| Carolina Panthers | 72.8 | 65.4 | 71.9 | -4.7% | -20.3% | -4.5% | -1.7% | -5.8% | -7.39% | |
| San Francisco 49ers | 78.9 | 61.5 | 82.1 | -14.3% | -7.3% | -6.7% | 0.1% | -8.9% | -7.44% | |
| Miami Dolphins | 72.7 | 68.7 | 76.5 | -5.4% | 1.8% | -23.6% | -13.5% | -8.1% | -9.75% | |
| New York Jets | 64.2 | 53.1 | 66.3 | -11.1% | -9.4% | -8.6% | -9.2% | -11.3% | -9.89% | |
| Denver Broncos | 66.8 | 55.9 | 69.2 | -10.6% | -9.0% | -1.9% | -16.3% | -15.3% | -10.61% | |
| *Tom Brady | 5.83% |
In the chart above you can see the the current (2020) team OFF, PASS and RECV (Offense, Pass/QB and WR grades) along with the last 5 years split between QB and WR grades and their 5-year mean. The higher the number means the more ownership of offensive performance the QB has, and vice versa.
We also included a section JUST for Tom Brady, as these grades are TEAM grades, not necessarily player grades. And as you can see the Patriots and Brady WOULD be the MOST “QB Propped” team (taking TB in 2020, and then NE in 2019-2016 mean). In other words, as its easy to see the Packers as an offense propped up by Rogers, Brady would actually take that prize if we were to view this from a player perspective.
During our research trying to split the QB and WR performance in the pass game, we noted that although (we know) sacks are more a function of the QB than the OL, we expanded the study to consider pass protection team grades as well.
The way to view the chart below is, based on PFF grades for a team in a particular year, the strength of their offensive pass performance was most (relatively speaking) propped up by:
-Passing the football (QB)
-Protecting the Passer (OL, mostly)
-Catching the ball/value after the catch (targeted WR/RB/TE)
In other words, what group, by year, is most responsible to your team’s success through the air for the past 5 seasons (averaged out).
| mean_QB propped | mean_OL Propped | mean_WR Propped | |
| Arizona Cardinals | -1.27% | -0.32% | 1.59% |
| Atlanta Falcons | 2.27% | -2.93% | 0.66% |
| Baltimore Ravens | -0.42% | 2.89% | -2.46% |
| Buffalo Bills | -1.11% | 2.89% | -1.78% |
| Carolina Panthers | -2.58% | 2.01% | 0.57% |
| Chicago Bears | -1.26% | 1.54% | -0.28% |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 0.11% | -0.52% | 0.40% |
| Cleveland Browns | -1.77% | 3.79% | -2.02% |
| Dallas Cowboys | 0.62% | -0.61% | 0.00% |
| Denver Broncos | -3.36% | 1.49% | 1.87% |
| Detroit Lions | 0.43% | -0.41% | -0.01% |
| Green Bay Packers | 1.65% | 1.99% | -3.63% |
| Houston Texans | -0.39% | -0.74% | 1.13% |
| Indianapolis Colts | 1.33% | 0.23% | -1.56% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | -1.32% | 1.13% | 0.19% |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 2.22% | -1.08% | -1.13% |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 2.46% | -4.80% | 2.34% |
| Los Angeles Rams | -0.95% | 0.17% | 0.77% |
| Oakland Raiders | 1.96% | -0.35% | -1.61% |
| Miami Dolphins | -1.54% | -1.71% | 3.25% |
| Minnesota Vikings | 2.64% | -4.92% | 2.28% |
| New England Patriots | 2.33% | -0.47% | -1.86% |
| New Orleans Saints | 1.62% | -0.75% | -0.87% |
| New York Giants | 0.13% | -0.89% | 0.76% |
| New York Jets | -3.16% | 1.49% | 1.68% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 0.15% | 1.67% | -1.82% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | -1.76% | 3.94% | -2.19% |
| Seattle Seahawks | 4.64% | -5.02% | 0.39% |
| San Francisco 49ers | -1.76% | 0.13% | 1.63% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 0.30% | -2.30% | 2.00% |
| Tennessee Titans | -0.88% | 0.74% | 0.15% |
| Washington Redskins | -1.29% | 1.73% | -0.44% |
*Note the higher the number the more responsible that group was over the past 5 years. Of Note:
-Seattle, unsurprisingly had the highest “QB propped” team, when considering all 3 facets of the pass game. Denver and NYJ on the other end of that spectrum
-Both the Steelers and Browns have been relatively propped up by their OL/Pass Pro, while the Seahawks, Chargers and Vikings have contributed the least value to THEIR pass game with protection
-Again, somewhat intuitive, but the Dolphins were by far the most “WR propped” pass game, with the Packers having the opposite situation
More to come soon, please don’t forget to subscribe (especially if you made it all the way down here 🙂 ).