(Almost) Sure NFL bet Part III

I stumbled across a (new?) betting option that DraftKings (at least) is offering. Set same game parlays. They call them “Moneyline/Total” or “Spread/Total”. The premise is simple. instead of betting on one team, lets say on the moneyline, you ALSO bet on a team winning, PLUS the Over/Under within the same bet (and get a better price). However, unless I am crazy, I think they way overpriced these, to the point you can some MUCH better prices/”free money”.

Take an example:

Let’s say you LIKE the Steelers in Week 1 vs. the Bills. Steelers are +230. Meaning for a $100 bet, you lose $100 if the Steelers lose, yet win +130 if they win.

However, instead of just betting the Steelers to win at +130, Draft Kings is giving you the option of “in-game parlay”, where you can bet either:

  • PIT AND OVER 49.5 (+575)
  • PIT AND UNDER 49.5 (+525)

Why don’t we play BOTH those two options separate? We KNOW one of those O/U will hit, so its almost like getting the Steelers at +500 instead of betting them straight up in one game at +130.

There are currently 4 week one games DK is still taking bets on like this, and the math works with favorites as well. Basically, if you are going to put one on team straight up, instead make 2 bets on both THAT team winning AND the Over in Bet one, and the Under in Bet two.

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