NFL Team Identities, Defense

Continuing on last week’s series NFL Team Identities, Offense, today we bring you the counterpart to the to last week’s post: Team Defense Identity. Again, the purpose here is to give those serious about the game a true lens to view what a team’s strategy actually is. Please refer to last week’s article for key notes, but remember, all that’s considered are plays during relevant gameplay (within 2 possessions score difference at any point in the game).

For Defense, the variables we consider are

• Rush x or Rush 3, 4, 5 and more than 5 is the rank within the league of how often a defense rushes x quantity
• Light (<7), Normal (7) and Heavy (>7) is the respective box size a defense deploys, with “Light” being less than 7 defenders, “Normal” being exactly 7 and “Heavy” being more than 7 defenders in the box
• Blitz Rk as defined by our friends at Football Reference (Note: this is their definition, not necessarily the way FPS records it, as anytime a team rushes x + 1, where x = the amount of rushers deployed most for a team)
• Base, Nickel and Dime Rk or ranks refers to the quantity of 4, 5 and 6 DBs deployed on a given play respectively
• 0/1, 2/T2, 3 and 4 refer to the respective ranks a defense deploys said coverage. Note that Cover 0 and 1 are combined (man coverages) and Cover 2 and Tampa 2 (when a MLB flys deep into the “hole” zone) are combined

Team	Rush 3 Rk	Rush 4 Rk	Rush 5 Rk	Rush >5 Rk	Light (<7) Rk	Normal (7) Rk	Heavy (>7) Rk	Blitz Rk	Base RK	Nickel Rk	Dime Rk	0/1 Rk	2/T2 Rk	3 Rk	4 Rk
49ers	26	19	9	5	14	6	22	10	11	9	24	18	26	26	1
Bears	20	5	23	30	11	21	18	29	8	27	17	24	22	7	8
Bengals	15	18	19	4	24	14	8	15	23	11	16	7	14	29	18
Bills	31	14	8	7	20	2	21	8	30	1	27	19	27	16	4
Broncos	19	10	20	11	1	31	32	18	20	8	18	6	30	27	6
Browns	30	4	27	28	17	11	17	30	13	7	23	27	32	9	2
Buccaneers	13	30	2	9	10	12	24	5	4	16	30	28	16	5	7
Cardinals	23	28	4	2	25	20	5	4	1	25	26	1	28	25	19
Chargers	28	2	31	27	29	13	7	32	22	12	15	23	31	4	9
Chiefs	24	23	17	1	12	5	25	9	17	30	4	9	6	32	13
Colts	29	3	30	23	19	3	20	31	21	3	31	29	3	8	15
Cowboys	8	9	25	29	28	26	2	27	26	4	19	21	9	21	12
Dolphins	3	32	15	6	30	10	6	2	10	28	10	3	29	13	27
Eagles	32	1	32	15	31	1	9	28	12	23	13	11	18	22	21
Falcons	11	21	7	21	22	15	10	12	14	5	32	5	7	24	32
Football Team	18	17	10	18	4	24	30	13	9	13	25	25	21	12	3
Giants	4	13	29	31	3	29	29	20	25	20	8	31	5	2	29
Jaguars	27	11	14	10	18	18	11	16	5	21	22	2	25	17	26
Jets	14	24	6	8	13	19	14	6	28	2	29	17	4	15	28
Lions	5	16	22	19	23	8	16	25	24	15	12	10	17	14	30
Packers	12	12	12	32	8	7	28	22	16	32	1	22	11	20	11
Panthers	2	25	28	22	5	30	23	24	32	22	2	32	19	1	10
Patriots	1	29	26	13	9	27	19	23	31	18	3	4	23	11	31
Raiders	17	6	24	25	7	22	26	26	18	6	21	16	2	28	20
Rams	25	7	13	26	2	32	31	21	27	19	5	26	20	6	5
Ravens	16	27	3	12	26	28	1	1	15	17	14	8	24	19	22
Saints	9	20	16	16	16	25	12	14	29	10	6	12	12	31	14
Seahawks	10	22	11	14	27	17	4	11	2	26	20	30	13	3	17
Steelers	21	31	1	3	21	9	15	3	3	31	9	15	10	18	23
Texans	7	26	5	20	32	4	3	7	6	29	11	14	15	10	25
Titans	6	15	21	24	15	16	13	17	19	24	7	13	8	23	24
Vikings	22	8	18	17	6	23	27	19	7	14	28	20	1	30	16

As an example, the Chicago Bears can be classified defensively as a:
-Rush 4
-Typically lighter box
-RARELY blitz
-Mainly base Defensive Backfield
-Heavy Cover 3 and 4, ZONE defense

As mentioned last week, this info is pertinent looking back, and relatively pertinent looking forward, (that is, usage, is relatively stable from year to year) with the EXCEPTION of OC/DC Changes. We took the liberty of including those changes as reference to lookup when considering teams with any changes. I should also note, the data is most useful in the first 4 weeks of the season as we both don’t have enough data for that season during weeks 1-4, and congruently once we get season x data, season x -1 data is less and less relevant.

	OC CHANGE	DC CHANGE	NEW OC LY TM	NEW DC LY TM
ATL	X	X	TEN (OC)	TEN (DC)
CHI		X		INT (DB ly)
DAL		X		ATL (HC)
DET	X	X	LAC (HC)	NO (DB)
GB		X		LAR (LB)
HOU				ILLINOIS (HC)
IND	X		INT (QB)
JAC	X	X	DET (OC)	BAL (DL)
LAC	X	X	NO (QB)	DEN (DB)
LAR		X		ATL (DC)
MIA	X		INT (RB/TE)
MIN	X		INT (QB)
NYJ	X	X	SF (PGC)	ATL (LB)
PHI	X	X	LAC (OC)	IND (DB)
PIT	X		INT (QB)
SF	X	X	INT (RGC)	INT (LB)
TEN	X	X	INT (TE)	INT (OLB)

Note:

-“X” means there was a OC or DC change made on this team
-Included in the “New OC or DC” section is where the NEW coach came from and (position they held)
-For example, its fair to look at TEN’s offensive tendencies when considering ATL’s likely identity in 2021 (within reason, good coaches change scheme to match talent, not the other way around)

In the near future we plan to disclose exact correlations to certain plays we’ve leveraged with regard to “matchup-based” value plays in the coming weeks, but use this as a baseline and make 2021 adjustments as you deem fit,