NFL Team Identities, Offense

So many times when we place a bet, make a fantasy selection or want to win a “bargument”, we hear information cited from some broadcaster or “talking head”. But the sharp bettors ignore most of this anecdotal information and instead want to know what’s ACTUALLY happens, or what kind of team xyz ACTUALLY is. This post will serve as that answer. We will run it annually to provide a “pre-season baseline” of what a team “was” last year to be built upon once enough data during the “in-season” is presented (usually 4-6 weeks in). As many readers know, the biggest chunk of our profit from last season came from diving into specific “matchup-based” advantages a certain team had and leveraging specific props to get a positive ROI.

This series will use a set of objective variables thanks to our friends at SIS and Football Outsiders. The idea is to give you a base level understanding of what a team’s offense and defense identity or personality is. Using this along with adjustments we’ll make to OC and DC changes coming up in the 2021 season, we will have a baseline idea of what a team really does week-in-week-out. Each variable in a vacuum doesn’t provide much, so we ranked each in regards to highest frequency relative to their “peers” in the NFL (Rank 1 = highest usage, and 32 the lowest).

We will release the offense and defense separately, starting with offense this week. All variables will ONLY consider gameplay situations that are relevant, i.e. all data collected only concerns plays where the scoring difference between teams is less than 16 points (or two possessions). You should also know there will be more variables presented for the offense than defense, given the “reactionary nature” of the former. Mind you, the following data records what a team DOES, not necessarily what they are good at. Longtime readers likely remember that exact inspiration that led to this in the Top 5 Quick NFL Team Fixes brought to you by the SIS Rookie Handbook.

You can find the full dataset here. The offensive variables are

• PSM Rate or Pre-snap Motion Rate
• SG or Shotgun Rate
• Neut. Sit. Pace or Neutral Situation Pace Rank (as defined by FO here)
• NH or No-Huddle Rate
• 11% or 11 personnel Rate (1 RB and 1 TE)
• 12% or 12 personnel Rate (1 RB and 2 TE)
• 21% or 21 personnel Rate (2 RB and 1 TE)
• 1D Pass (vs Run) or First Down pass rate, used as the best item to judge how often a team passes vs runs (particularly in neutral situations)

Team	PSM Rate Rk	SG Rate % Rk	Neut. Sit. Pace Rk	NH Rate RK	11 % Rk.	12 % Rk.	21 % Rk.	1D Pass (vs Run) Rk
49ers	1	25	31	19	31	26	2	27
Bears	24	16	27	16	10	13	23	10
Bengals	26	8	16	20	3	22	26	8
Bills	20	11	11	15	1	31	32	1
Broncos	23	19	10	22	13	15	17	20
Browns	7	30	21	26	29	3	11	30
Buccaneers	11	26	4	28	11	11	31	24
Cardinals	32	2	1	1	25	4	19	19
Chargers	27	14	5	12	8	28	12	22
Chiefs	4	7	7	32	6	21	18	7
Colts	28	10	18	9	7	18	24	17
Cowboys	12	18	2	8	9	12	25	13
Dolphins	17	4	25	7	22	8	16	5
Eagles	30	5	17	5	26	2	22	4
Falcons	16	27	8	11	16	23	8	12
Football Team	9	9	14	13	15	24	7	6
Giants	31	15	19	2	23	5	21	26
Jaguars	29	13	24	25	4	25	15	23
Jets	18	21	20	21	5	19	27	21
Lions	15	22	9	23	12	20	13	11
Packers	5	20	32	27	28	16	4	16
Panthers	6	17	29	24	18	17	14	14
Patriots	14	28	13	4	27	32	1	29
Raiders	8	23	23	17	24	14	10	28
Rams	13	29	12	3	19	9	30	15
Ravens	2	1	30	30	14	29	5	31
Saints	22	24	28	29	17	27	6	18
Seahawks	10	12	22	18	20	7	28	9
Steelers	21	3	6	14	2	30	29	3
Texans	25	6	15	10	21	6	20	2
Titans	3	31	3	6	30	1	9	32
Vikings	19	32	26	31	32	10	3	25

And

• Zone (vs Gap) Run or the split of zone runs vs gap/power runs called (The higher the rank, the bigger the percentage of zone runs)
• Outside (vs inside) or the split of outside runs vs inside
• PA Rate or play-action vs drop-back split
• Next three items breakdown “drop type”, 0-3 being quick game (0-3 step drops), long game (5 or 7 step drop) and RO = rollout/sprint-out passes
• The next section measures distribution of target depth, ADOT or average depth of target behind the LOS, or line of scrimmage, short being within 1-14 yards from the line of scrimmage and deep being any pass targeted over 14 yards

	Zone (vs Gap) Run Rk	Outside (vs Inside) Run Rk	PA Rate Rk.	0-3 Step % Rk.	5-7 Step % Rk.	RO % Rk.	Behind LOS (< 1 yd.s) + % Rk.	Short (1-14 yd.s) + % Rk.	Deep (>14 yd.s) + % Rk.
49ers	9	2	12	10	19	17	7	12	27
Bears	5	5	9	12	26	3	20	25	7
Bengals	14	26	25	2	30	21	22	19	9
Bills	19	16	5	4	27	25	18	23	11
Broncos	28	8	19	14	23	7	30	31	1
Browns	27	1	11	22	17	2	28	27	3
Buccaneers	25	31	30	6	20	32	8	32	4
Cardinals	26	21	8	25	5	20	10	8	28
Chargers	13	22	16	28	7	15	11	21	19
Chiefs	10	9	6	27	14	6	16	17	17
Colts	8	30	26	23	2	31	4	29	10
Cowboys	7	17	24	9	24	13	14	14	22
Dolphins	20	27	18	8	25	11	23	9	15
Eagles	21	19	14	7	28	10	25	3	18
Falcons	24	20	22	15	16	23	29	28	2
Football Team	18	29	13	18	10	27	2	5	32
Giants	31	32	15	3	29	18	27	4	16
Jaguars	15	18	31	26	4	29	17	11	21
Jets	6	14	21	13	18	12	26	13	8
Lions	23	25	20	29	3	24	21	26	6
Packers	2	23	3	30	11	5	1	22	31
Panthers	22	28	28	19	12	16	12	16	23
Patriots	30	13	4	21	8	28	9	7	30
Raiders	12	10	23	20	9	19	15	24	12
Rams	3	3	7	17	22	1	5	15	29
Ravens	32	4	1	5	31	9	31	1	20
Saints	17	15	29	32	1	22	6	18	24
Seahawks	11	11	17	24	15	8	24	2	25
Steelers	29	12	32	1	32	30	3	30	13
Texans	16	24	27	16	13	26	32	6	5
Titans	1	6	2	11	21	14	13	10	26
Vikings	4	7	10	31	6	4	19	20	14

*All data is only during relevant gameplay (score difference within two possessions)
**All data is ranked relative to highest frequency deployed within the league
*** Pass rates record DROPBACKS, not just attempts (scrambles and sacks are included)

For example, this Chicago Bears offensive personality from 2020 could be summarized as follows:

-Slow paced
-11 and 12 personnel
-Balanced, but leaning towards pass
-Zone and outside heavy runs
-Quick game and rollout based passing offense that pushes the ball down the field (surprisingly, yes)

Again, note this isn’t necessarily what the Bears are good at, NOR what they will deploy in 2021, yet its empirically what they were last season. And with that information we can glean a lot of answers to questions about a team’s true identity.

Defense to come next week.