Pro Football Focus wrote a fantastic, compelling case for why the Bears should trade up (a lot) for Ohio State QB Justin Fields. You can read Anthony Treash’s work here.
I highly recommend subscribing to PFF’s premium content, but to sum up the argument for mortgaging the future for Fields:
- Its really starting to look like the 49ers are going with Mac Jones at Pick Number 3
- This means Fields will be there at Pick 4, and the Falcons are pretty much locked in with Matt Ryan given the structure of his contract
- Fields is the 5th best QB Prospect PFF has graded since 2015, to be there at Pick 4 is an absolute outlier
- Fields is 5th in Accurate pass % on throws beyond the LOS since 2017, just ran a 4.44 40 at his pro day (likely a 4.54 if there was a combine, but still in the 98th-ish percentile for a QB) and although he has slower recorded “processing speed” (TTT on blitzes was ranked last in FBS at 3.08 seconds) he’s not, empirically, a one read QB
- Fields is considerably better than the recent former OSU QBs, “He was certainly in a good situation at Ohio State, but he’s not like other Buckeye quarterbacks who flamed out in the NFL. Fields’ 92.4 passing grade from 2019 and 92.2 passing grade from 2020 are over seven grading points higher than any other Ohio State quarterback in the PFF College era.”
- According to the PFF Trade Simulator, it would take 3 first round picks (20th from 2021, their 2022 and 2023), the 2021 2nd, 2021 3rd and a late rounder, like 6th, but it absolutely worth it given how strong a prospect Fields is
Again, I agree with the well-written argument by Treash, and frankly believe both Pace and Nagy know this is the only shot they have in keeping their jobs. Hence, I see this not only being the right move, but one the Bears will make.