Fantasy performance and actual performance (measured as a player’s personal contribution to a team’s likelihood of winning) are very different measurements. Although most players at the extremes will have mirrored rankings, there are plenty of examples where fantasy performance of an individual may enforce misinterpretation of a player’s REAL value, and vice versa. This piece starts a series to help shed light on what players, on the margin are better or worse in real/fantasy NFL.
Below is a chart of RBs based on their fantasy (per carry, rushing ONLY) performance, on the y-axis vs. their rank in rushing DVOA the x-axis. RBs above the trendline were better real RBs than fantasy, those below were better fantasy than real RBs.
Notable RBs better rushing in reality (than fantasy)
- Darrell Henderson
- Jamal Williams
- Latavius Murray
Notable RBs better rushing in fantasy (than reality/DVOA)
- DeAndre Swift
- Josh Jacobs
- Todd Gurley
We will keep this series going for a couple weeks, with QBs up next.