A special baseball post by request…
The MLB awards both an NL and AL MVP every season. The MVPs are determined by the Baseball Writers’ Association of America (BWAA) The actual voting takes place just before the MLB postseason, yet results are not announced until after the World Series. There are plenty of write ups you’ll find around the internet, heck even this site, that will give you advice on specific bets to make on the MVP futures race, however we’re going to take a more “Macro approach” here. Zooming out a bit we’ll provide some objective clues to give bettors a framework to use among the specific players you feel strongly about.
Let leadoff with the 2021 AL and NL MVP frontrunners/current odds (listed below, all in + lines).
| AL MVP Odds | NL MVP Odds | |||
| Mike Trout | 175 | Mookie Betts | 500 | |
| Alex Bregman | 1000 | Christian Yelich | 700 | |
| Jose Abreu | 1000 | Ronald Acuna Jr. | 750 | |
| Aaron Judge | 1100 | Cody Bellinger | 800 | |
| Shohei Ohtani | 2000 | Freddie Freeman | 800 | |
| Francisco Lindor | 2000 | Fernando Tatis Jr. | 1000 | |
| Anthony Rendon | 2000 | Juan Soto | 1000 | |
| Matt Chapman | 2300 | Nolan Arenado | 1000 | |
| Gleybar Torres | 2500 | Bryce Harper | 1200 | |
| DJ LeMahieu | 2500 | Ketel Marte | 1400 | |
| Gerrit Cole | 3000 | Trevor Story | 2000 | |
| George Springer | 3000 | Eugenio Suarez | 2000 | |
| Jose Ramirez | 3000 | Kris Bryant | 2000 | |
| Yoan Moncada | 3000 | Paul Goldschimdt | 2000 | |
| Shane Bieber | 3000 | Pete Alonso | 2500 | |
| Nelson Cruz | 3000 | Jacob deGrom | 2800 | |
| Yordan Alvarez | 3500 | Manny Machado | 3000 | |
| Matt Olson | 4000 | Rhys Hoskins | 3000 | |
| Eloy Jimenez | 4000 | Marcell Ozuna | 3000 | |
| Xander Bogaerts | 4000 | Corey Seager | 3500 | |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | 4000 | Javier Baez | 4000 |
When predicting the MVP, as with anything else, we should look to the past and reverse engineer our way to a baseline of options. Instead of viewing all the frontrunners above and working from there, let’s see how recent award winner’s odds were going in to the regular season to understand what actual MVP winners odds look like preseason.
Historical Odds of Winners (last 12 years)
| Year | AL Winner | Odds | NL Winner | Odds |
| 2020 | Jose Abreu (CHW) | 6000 | Freddie Freeman (ATL) | 2500 |
| 2019 | Mike Trout (LAA) | 125 | Cody Bellinger (LAD) | 3000 |
| 2018 | Mookie Betts (BOS) | 2500 | Christian Yelich (MIL) | 15000 |
| 2017 | Jose Altuve (HOU) | 1200 | Giancarlo Stanton (MIA) | 4500 |
| 2016 | Mike Trout (LAA) | 160 | Kris Bryant (CHC) | 1000 |
| 2015 | Josh Donaldson (TOR) | 1600 | Bryce Harper (WAS) | 2000 |
| 2014 | Mike Trout (LAA) | 500 | Clayton Kershaw (LAD) | 2000 |
| 2013 | Miguel Cabrera (DET) | 700 | Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 1500 |
| 2012 | Miguel Cabrera (DET) | 900 | Buster Posey (SFG) | 2500 |
| 2011 | Justin Verlander (DET) | 7500 | Ryan Braun (MIL) | 800 |
| 2010 | Josh Hamilton (TEX) | 1000 | Joey Votto (CIN) | 5000 |
| AVG | +2017 | +3618 |
As you can see above, rarely has the favorite actually ended up as the MVP. The NL MVP winner specifically, seems to be an absolute crapshoot, averaging out to +3618 preseason odds, while the AL averaged out to +2017 preseason odds. Given this, it’s hard to view any of the top 2-4 favorites as a likely positive Expected Value (EV) play. That is, even if Trout ends up winning the 2021 MVP, as he’s a big favorite to do so, the payout isn’t worth the fact (we’ve discovered) big favorites don’t typically bring home the hardware. I would recommend working from the +800/+1000 and up.
After that we can cross out any player on a team with a low win projection given that MVPs rarely come from player’s sitting at home in October. That leaves us with the following options:
| AL MVP Odds | NL MVP Odds | |||
| Shohei Ohtani | 2000 | *Freddie Freeman+800 | ||
| Francisco Lindor | 2000 | Fernando Tatis Jr. | 1000 | |
| Anthony Rendon | 2000 | Juan Soto | 1000 | |
| Matt Chapman | 2300 | Bryce Harper | 1200 | |
| Gleybar Torres | 2500 | Ketel Marte | 1400 | |
| DJ LeMahieu | 2500 | Paul Goldschimdt | 2000 | |
| Gerrit Cole | 3000 | Kris Bryant | 2000 | |
| George Springer | 3000 | Eugenio Suarez | 2000 | |
| Jose Ramirez | 3000 | Pete Alonso | 2500 | |
| Yoan Moncada | 3000 | Jacob deGrom | 2800 | |
| Shane Bieber | 3000 | Rhys Hoskins | 3000 | |
| Nelson Cruz | 3000 | Marcell Ozuna | 3000 | |
| Yordan Alvarez | 3500 | Manny Machado | 3000 | |
| Matt Olson | 4000 | Corey Seager | 3500 | |
| Eloy Jimenez | 4000 | Javier Baez | 4000 | |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | 4000 |
Here is the last, but most critical part. It’s quite a labor intensive process, but has the chance to have the greatest impact. Although there are significant rules prohibiting the BWAA members from DIRECTLY disclosing their selections (trust me I tried), the MVP picks are made by humans. Humans with twitter accounts. We will be running a formal study documenting keywords each voter uses relative to MVP candidates, but in the meantime, I would suggest doing your homework and investigating their content if you are planning to make a serious bet.
Below you can find the entire roster of the AL and NL MVP selectors along with links to their bio/social media accounts.
| Name | Affiliation | Team(s) covered | Job description |
| Andrew Wagner | Wisconsin State Journal | Brewers | Beat Writer |
| Anthony Castrovince | MLB.com | All | Columnist |
| Barry M. Bloom | Forbes | All | Columnist |
| Bill Plunkett | Orange County Register | Dodgers | Beat Writer |
| Bill Shaikin | Los Angeles Times | All | National writer |
| Bob Dutton | At large | Mariners | Beat Writer |
| Bob Elliott | Canadian Baseball Network | All, Blue Jays | National writer |
| C. Trent Rosecrans | The Athletic | Reds | Beat Writer |
| Clark Spencer | Miami Herald | Marlins | Beat Writer |
| Dan Hayes | The Athletic | Twins | Beat Writer |
| Dan Szymborski | ESPN.com | All | Columnist |
| Dejan Kovacevic | DKPittsburghSports.com | Pirates | Columnist |
| Eric Stephen | SB Nation | All | National writer |
| Evan Drellich | The Athletic | All | National writer |
| Evan Grant | Dallas Morning News | Rangers | Beat Writer |
| Grant Brisbee | The Athletic | Giants | Columnist |
| J.P. Hoornstra | Southern California News Group | Dodgers | Beat Writer |
| Jane Lee | MLB.com | A’s | Beat Writer |
| Jason Foster | The Sporting News | All | Editor |
| Jay Jaffe | Sports Illustrated | All | Columnist |
| Jeff Fletcher | Orange County Register | Angels | Beat Writer |
| Jeff Passan | ESPN | All | National writer |
| Jim Alexander | Riverside Press Enterprise | Angels, Dodgers, Padres | Columnist |
| Jorge L. Ortiz | USA TODAY | All | National writer |
| Kyle Glaser | Baseball America | All | National writer |
| LaVelle E. Neal III | Minneapolis Star Tribune | Twins | Beat Writer |
| Leonte Landino | ESPN Deportes | All | Editor |
| Lou DiPietro | YES Network | Yankees | Beat writer |
| Lynn Henning | Detroit News | Tigers | Backup |
| Marc Topkin | Tampa Bay Times | Rays | Beat Writer |
| Mark Newman | At large | All | Editor |
| Mark Sheldon | MLB.com | Reds | Beat Writer |
| Mark Zuckerman | MASNsports.com | Nationals | Beat Writer |
| Matt Gelb | The Athletic | Phillies | Beat Writer |
| Matt Snyder | CBS Sports | All | National writer |
| Michael Axisa | CBS Sports | All | National writer |
| Mike Harrington | Buffalo News | Blue Jays | Columnist |
| Mike Petriello | MLB.com | All | Analyst |
| Nick Piecoro | The Arizona Republic | Diamondbacks | Beat Writer |
| Paul Sullivan | Chicago Tribune | Cubs, White Sox | Beat writer |
| Peter Abraham | The Boston Globe | Red Sox | Beat Writer |
| Rhett Bollinger | MLB.com | Angels | Beat Writer |
| Ricardo Montes | ESPN Deportes Miami | Marlins | Columnist |
| Rob Biertempfel | Pittsburgh Tribune-Review | Pirates | Beat Writer |
| Roberto Colon | El Nuevo Dia / Unanimo Deportes | All | National writer |
| Ryan Fagan | Sporting News | All | National Writer |
| Scott Lauber | Philadelphia Inquirer | Phillies | Beat Writer |
| Steve Buckley | The Athletic | Red Sox | Columnist |
| Ted Berg | At large | All | National writer |
| Tony DeMarco | FanRagSports.com | All | National writer |
| Tyler Kepner | New York Times | All | National writer |
| Zach Buchanan | The Athletic | Diamondbacks | Beat Writer |
| Zack Meisel | The Athletic | Indians | Beat Writer |
In summary, when predicting MLB MVPs:
- Ignore the top 2-4 favorites, and stick to the +2000 or above level
- Eliminate players from likely low wn total teams
- Use human nature against the voters, and do your due diligence by finding clues on their twitter accounts