Super Bowl Pick and Props to Target

No one. Sharp bettors will stay away, and so should you. Sharp bettors care about one thing: profit, not betting for the sake of it, or betting because its the Super Bowl. All of our models are confounded, which means, this is officially a NO PLAY. We will sit back and collect our TB NFL Champions ticket we picked up at +1000 at mid-season, or our +600 KC to beat TB in Super Bowl ticket, and enjoy the game as a fan. Its just too tight. There may be some value when the prop markets arise, so stand by for that, but traditional markets are luck/sucker bets right now, stay away.

Image result for bucs vs chiefs

MODEL OUTPUT

TeamnMU+QB totNet QBnPFFW nDVOA/varnPform
KC-30.640.682.904.95-0.4
TB30.64-0.68-2.90-4.950.4

There are some interesting props though, here’s what we reccomend:

  1. Chris Jones > .5 Sacks (+150). Jones has a 92.8 Pass Rushing Grade (according to Pro Football Focus) and will be matched-up against RG Aaron Stinie who has a 42.8 Pass Protection Grade. That coupled with Brady’s inability vs. interior pressure, makes me think this is the best bet (overall) to make in the SuperBowl.
  2. KC Total points < 29.5. (-106) Beyond this being a good number (NOT < 28), when you compare taking run blocking grades, short yard power situations, WR vs Coverage grades and Pass Rush vs. Pass Pro grades, when KC has the ball, they are negative in 3 out of 4 of those matchups ratings (particularly in the run game, see more at FPS).
  3. Ronald Jones II > 37.5 Rushing Yards (-118). Fournette will be the lead carrier for TB but his number is set at a more difficult 48.5 yards. Beyond TB’s Offensive ALY yards (OL Run Blocking Stat from FootballOutsiders) vs. KC Defensive ALY being a +16 matchup (happens only 20% of the time), they have the highest relative matchup advantage in “Power Situations” we have seen through all the playoffs +31 (i.e. TB OFF PWR Rk vs KC DEF PWR Rk, also a FO Stat)!

Avoid the game straight-up, but there is some serious value in the props, especially with Chris Jones.

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