Who is the Most Consistent QB in 2020?

Metrics like Expected Points Added (EPA) can tell us how well a player is performing in a game, season, etc. But what about how consistent a player is? For anyone that needs to take a predictive or forward-looking view on performance, how consistent a player is, may be just as important as base performance. Being the most critical position on the field, we wanted to find out who the most consistent QBs have been for the 2020 season.

To find consistency, we look at the standard deviation (STDEV) (average variance from the mean) of a player’s game-by-game average. The higher the number, the less consistent. Additionally, we added our favorite of our “Intro to Statistics measurements”: Coefficient of Variation (CV). The CV takes both average and STDEV into account using this formula: Average / Standard Deviation. The higher the number the better an overall performer.

Image result for kyle allen
Kyle Allen the 4th most consistent QB

You can see a list below of QBs from the 2020 season (through 14 weeks), ordered by CV:

PlayerTeamPt.s Earned/gm.STDEVCV
Patrick MahomesChiefs11.385.572.04
Deshaun WatsonTexans8.694.801.81
Drew BreesSaints7.013.901.80
Kyle AllenFootball Team4.803.181.51
Josh AllenBills7.715.891.31
Russell WilsonSeahawks7.335.791.26
Aaron RodgersPackers9.267.411.25
Derek CarrRaiders5.965.241.14
Ben RoethlisbergerSteelers5.564.911.13
Tom BradyBuccaneers8.087.251.11
Kirk CousinsVikings4.754.721.01
Philip RiversColts5.755.880.98
Teddy BridgewaterPanthers5.105.300.96
Daniel JonesGiants3.033.150.96
Ryan TannehillTitans5.806.180.94
Matthew StaffordLions4.555.050.90
Kyler MurrayCardinals3.714.160.89
Mike GlennonJaguars2.553.350.76
Matt RyanFalcons5.016.760.74
Justin HerbertChargers4.866.590.74
Tua TagovailoaDolphins3.354.660.72
Jalen HurtsEagles0.430.600.71
Baker MayfieldBrowns4.666.850.68
Taysom HillSaints3.695.450.68
Joe BurrowBengals4.686.960.67
Andy DaltonCowboys2.433.650.67
Dak PrescottCowboys3.224.980.65
Gardner MinshewJaguars3.355.200.64
Jared GoffRams4.449.540.47
Nick Mullens49ers3.287.610.43
Ryan FitzpatrickDolphins3.227.720.42
Drew LockBroncos1.644.940.33
Jimmy Garoppolo49ers1.866.210.30
Joe FlaccoJets2.228.360.27
Lamar JacksonRavens1.717.160.24
Alex SmithFootball Team1.777.950.22
Cam NewtonPatriots1.527.390.21
Nick FolesBears0.686.320.11
Brandon AllenBengals-0.252.85-0.09
Carson WentzEagles-2.147.39-0.29
Dwayne HaskinsFootball Team-1.755.14-0.34
Mitchell TrubiskyBears-1.664.00-0.42
Sam DarnoldJets-2.884.27-0.67
Jake LutonJaguars-6.789.56-0.71
Jarrett StidhamPatriots-1.030.98-1.05

*Minimum of 2 games played, AND Jalen Hurts.

A few notes

  • The “average QB” produces 3.39 EPA/gm. With 5.57 STDEV and .62 CV.
  • When you consider ONLY QBs with at least 3.3 EPA/gm. The 3 least consistent QBs are Jared Goff, Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady. The most consistent 3: Kyle Allen, Drew Brees and Kyler Murray.
  • There are only 4 QBs with more than 5 EPA/gm, yet have a SD high enough to ALSO produce a negative EPA: Matt Ryan, Ryan Tannehill, Teddy Bridgewater and Phillip Rivers.

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