Metrics like Expected Points Added (EPA) can tell us how well a player is performing in a game, season, etc. But what about how consistent a player is? For anyone that needs to take a predictive or forward-looking view on performance, how consistent a player is, may be just as important as base performance. Being the most critical position on the field, we wanted to find out who the most consistent QBs have been for the 2020 season.
To find consistency, we look at the standard deviation (STDEV) (average variance from the mean) of a player’s game-by-game average. The higher the number, the less consistent. Additionally, we added our favorite of our “Intro to Statistics measurements”: Coefficient of Variation (CV). The CV takes both average and STDEV into account using this formula: Average / Standard Deviation. The higher the number the better an overall performer.
You can see a list below of QBs from the 2020 season (through 14 weeks), ordered by CV:
| Player | Team | Pt.s Earned/gm. | STDEV | CV |
| Patrick Mahomes | Chiefs | 11.38 | 5.57 | 2.04 |
| Deshaun Watson | Texans | 8.69 | 4.80 | 1.81 |
| Drew Brees | Saints | 7.01 | 3.90 | 1.80 |
| Kyle Allen | Football Team | 4.80 | 3.18 | 1.51 |
| Josh Allen | Bills | 7.71 | 5.89 | 1.31 |
| Russell Wilson | Seahawks | 7.33 | 5.79 | 1.26 |
| Aaron Rodgers | Packers | 9.26 | 7.41 | 1.25 |
| Derek Carr | Raiders | 5.96 | 5.24 | 1.14 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | Steelers | 5.56 | 4.91 | 1.13 |
| Tom Brady | Buccaneers | 8.08 | 7.25 | 1.11 |
| Kirk Cousins | Vikings | 4.75 | 4.72 | 1.01 |
| Philip Rivers | Colts | 5.75 | 5.88 | 0.98 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | Panthers | 5.10 | 5.30 | 0.96 |
| Daniel Jones | Giants | 3.03 | 3.15 | 0.96 |
| Ryan Tannehill | Titans | 5.80 | 6.18 | 0.94 |
| Matthew Stafford | Lions | 4.55 | 5.05 | 0.90 |
| Kyler Murray | Cardinals | 3.71 | 4.16 | 0.89 |
| Mike Glennon | Jaguars | 2.55 | 3.35 | 0.76 |
| Matt Ryan | Falcons | 5.01 | 6.76 | 0.74 |
| Justin Herbert | Chargers | 4.86 | 6.59 | 0.74 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | Dolphins | 3.35 | 4.66 | 0.72 |
| Jalen Hurts | Eagles | 0.43 | 0.60 | 0.71 |
| Baker Mayfield | Browns | 4.66 | 6.85 | 0.68 |
| Taysom Hill | Saints | 3.69 | 5.45 | 0.68 |
| Joe Burrow | Bengals | 4.68 | 6.96 | 0.67 |
| Andy Dalton | Cowboys | 2.43 | 3.65 | 0.67 |
| Dak Prescott | Cowboys | 3.22 | 4.98 | 0.65 |
| Gardner Minshew | Jaguars | 3.35 | 5.20 | 0.64 |
| Jared Goff | Rams | 4.44 | 9.54 | 0.47 |
| Nick Mullens | 49ers | 3.28 | 7.61 | 0.43 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | Dolphins | 3.22 | 7.72 | 0.42 |
| Drew Lock | Broncos | 1.64 | 4.94 | 0.33 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 49ers | 1.86 | 6.21 | 0.30 |
| Joe Flacco | Jets | 2.22 | 8.36 | 0.27 |
| Lamar Jackson | Ravens | 1.71 | 7.16 | 0.24 |
| Alex Smith | Football Team | 1.77 | 7.95 | 0.22 |
| Cam Newton | Patriots | 1.52 | 7.39 | 0.21 |
| Nick Foles | Bears | 0.68 | 6.32 | 0.11 |
| Brandon Allen | Bengals | -0.25 | 2.85 | -0.09 |
| Carson Wentz | Eagles | -2.14 | 7.39 | -0.29 |
| Dwayne Haskins | Football Team | -1.75 | 5.14 | -0.34 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | Bears | -1.66 | 4.00 | -0.42 |
| Sam Darnold | Jets | -2.88 | 4.27 | -0.67 |
| Jake Luton | Jaguars | -6.78 | 9.56 | -0.71 |
| Jarrett Stidham | Patriots | -1.03 | 0.98 | -1.05 |
*Minimum of 2 games played, AND Jalen Hurts.
A few notes
- The “average QB” produces 3.39 EPA/gm. With 5.57 STDEV and .62 CV.
- When you consider ONLY QBs with at least 3.3 EPA/gm. The 3 least consistent QBs are Jared Goff, Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady. The most consistent 3: Kyle Allen, Drew Brees and Kyler Murray.
- There are only 4 QBs with more than 5 EPA/gm, yet have a SD high enough to ALSO produce a negative EPA: Matt Ryan, Ryan Tannehill, Teddy Bridgewater and Phillip Rivers.