Thanks as always to Sports Info Solutions for all the work they do to help us understand and predict the game. Below you will find the QB vs Coverage match-up for the upcoming Super Bowl week. Remember:
-The first four columns after the team names represent “Adjusted Coverage Usage”. Normally, this number ONLY represents the typical frequency a that team’s defense deploys the respective defense. However, since the teams have faced each other during the regular season, we adjust (at 1/2 power) how much the respective defense deployed the different coverages vs the opponent earlier in the year.
-The next four columns (after QB name) represent how well THAT QB performs, RELATIVE to their own success rates for a given coverage in 2020.
-We add how often a team blitzes (not pressures, on purpose) relative to how much, or how little that QB is affected by pressure, vs. his typical success rate output.
The key to any profitable sports bet is to find NOT ONLY predictive information, BUT predictive information that the betting public doesn’t know, hence the way the data is taken into account (its not JUST that Pat Mahomes is lethal against all coverages, but what coverages RELATIVE to his own performance does he outperform).
Here is how the Super Bowl week is shaping up: