A Look into OC’s performance using Advanced Stats
“Advanced Stats” or “Analytics” in football have helped us understand what determines game outcomes. We know certain strategic tendencies correlate heavily to winning football games. Many of these are still being debated, or even discovered but there are a few “gimmies” or clearly established protocols, such as the Football Outsider’s Basics, that have been proven to help move the needle for football teams.
It’s important to note, most, if not all of these tactics (Play-Action Passing Efficiency, Pre-Snap Motion, etc) have little to nothing to do with team performance/skill/execution. The reason we mention this, is as many sharp bettors START with some semblance of “base performance” when predicting outcomes, be it defined by DVOA, PFF Ratings or Pythagorean Win total, there are things coaches can (and can’t) do that impact the game’s outcomes. In other words, completely regardless of the player’s performance, there are certain things a coach can do to impact winning percentage. Things like motivation and other subjective items are impossible to measure, but some of the aforementioned “gimmies” we can see easily. We have taken it upon ourselves to breakdown a few select “analytics-community-accepted principles” and broke down how every coach performed in a scorecard. For this article we will start with the Offense:
Overall 2020 NFL OC Scorecard
| Team | PA Rate | RK | PSM | Rk | 3/4th&shrt. RUN | RK | Optimal Mix | RK | Net Light Run Rate | RK | OVR |
| BUF | 41% | 1 | NA | 16 | 73% | 5 | 0% | 3 | 26% | 14 | 8 |
| KC | 37% | 2 | 17% | 5 | 59% | 12 | 1% | 7 | 26% | 15 | 8 |
| ARI | 36% | 8 | 15% | 7 | 59% | 11 | 5% | 23 | 30% | 8 | 11 |
| LAC | 31% | 29 | 20% | 1 | 57% | 18 | 1% | 4 | 26% | 12 | 13 |
| LAR | 37% | 3 | 16% | 6 | 59% | 14 | 3% | 15 | 3% | 29 | 13 |
| MIN | 36% | 5 | 5% | 28 | 68% | 6 | 0% | 1 | 7% | 27 | 13 |
| CHI | 34% | 14 | NA | 16 | 58% | 15 | 3% | 17 | 31% | 6 | 14 |
| BAL | 34% | 12 | 34% | 1 | 90% | 1 | 10% | 29 | 6% | 28 | 14 |
| PHI | 36% | 9 | 14% | 9 | 56% | 20 | 12% | 32 | 40% | 1 | 14 |
| DAL | 33% | 19 | NA | 16 | 57% | 19 | 2% | 10 | 30% | 9 | 15 |
| MIA | 37% | 4 | 5% | 29 | 63% | 8 | 2% | 12 | 19% | 20 | 15 |
| CIN | 32% | 26 | 11% | 10 | 53% | 26 | 0% | 2 | 29% | 10 | 15 |
| DET | 34% | 15 | 5% | 26 | 53% | 27 | 1% | 5 | 33% | 3 | 15 |
| HOU | 35% | 10 | 19% | 3 | 53% | 25 | 12% | 31 | 31% | 7 | 15 |
| SEA | 36% | 7 | NA | 16 | 48% | 29 | 4% | 22 | 33% | 4 | 16 |
| SF | 33% | 22 | 18% | 4 | 59% | 13 | 2% | 13 | 13% | 26 | 16 |
| NO | 33% | 17 | NA | 16 | 74% | 3 | 3% | 19 | 13% | 25 | 16 |
| WAS | 35% | 11 | 58% | 17 | 4% | 21 | 25% | 17 | 17 | ||
| CAR | 32% | 25 | 15% | 8 | 62% | 10 | 5% | 24 | 25% | 18 | 17 |
| NE | 36% | 6 | NA | 16 | 80% | 2 | 10% | 30 | 1% | 31 | 17 |
| ATL | 33% | 20 | 5% | 31 | 56% | 22 | 1% | 8 | 32% | 5 | 17 |
| LV | 32% | 27 | NA | 16 | 56% | 21 | 1% | 6 | 20% | 19 | 18 |
| IND | 33% | 18 | 7% | 23 | 73% | 4 | 6% | 25 | 18% | 22 | 18 |
| TEN | 34% | 16 | NA | 16 | 63% | 9 | 4% | 20 | -3% | 32 | 19 |
| GB | 34% | 13 | NA | 16 | 47% | 30 | 3% | 16 | 18% | 21 | 19 |
| DEN | 33% | 24 | NA | 16 | 55% | 23 | 2% | 11 | 17% | 23 | 19 |
| NYJ | 33% | 21 | 5% | 30 | 63% | 7 | 7% | 29 | 26% | 16 | 21 |
| JAX | 29% | 32 | 4% | 32 | 43% | 31 | 1% | 9 | 38% | 2 | 21 |
| PIT | 29% | 31 | NA | 16 | 53% | 28 | 7% | 26 | 28% | 11 | 22 |
| TB | 30% | 30 | 6% | 25 | 42% | 32 | 2% | 14 | 26% | 13 | 23 |
| CLE | 32% | 28 | 7% | 24 | 58% | 16 | 3% | 18 | 2% | 30 | 23 |
| NYG | 33% | 23 | 5% | 27 | 53% | 24 | 8% | 28 | 15% | 24 | 25 |
*Note data was taken only during assumed gameplay relevant to the outcome of the game ( i.e. no 4 th downs, only the middle 80 yards of the field and excluding week 17)
The chart is broken down as follows:
- Play-Action Rate. Percentage of dropbacks that are play-action passes
- 3rd/4th Down Run Rate. Percentage of 3-4th down and short plays that were runs (one of the rare times Running is a better option)
- Optimal Mix. How much more or less should a team run/pass based on respective success rates of run/pass of the team
- Net Light Run Rate. Passing, all other things equal is a more efficient play, however, a light box (defined as 7 or less defenders within the box) is the optimal time to run, and vice-versa.
Do note this does not encompass ALL “easy wins”, nor do these items guarantee a win by any margin. Again the reason for pulling and analyzing this data was to help adjust handicapper’s models who lack the ability to properly adjust for coach contributions. Some “low hanging fruit” such as 4th down decision making can be added from analytics leaders like EdjSports and their Coach Leaderboards. However, FantasyPros is the only place you can find all this data, in one place, to help you adjust your model/selections. With that said, here is a “zoom-in” on remaining playoff teams:
Playoff Team’s OC Scorecard
| Team | PA Rate | RK | PSM | Rk | 3/4th&shrt. RUN | RK | Optimal Mix | RK | Net Light Run Rate | RK | OVR |
| BUF | 41% | 1 | NA | 16 | 73% | 5 | 0% | 3 | 26% | 14 | 8 |
| KC | 37% | 2 | 17% | 5 | 59% | 12 | 1% | 7 | 26% | 15 | 8 |
| LAR | 37% | 3 | 16% | 6 | 59% | 14 | 3% | 15 | 3% | 29 | 13 |
| BAL | 34% | 12 | 34% | 1 | 90% | 1 | 10% | 29 | 6% | 28 | 14 |
| NO | 33% | 17 | NA | 16 | 74% | 3 | 3% | 19 | 13% | 25 | 16 |
| GB | 34% | 13 | NA | 16 | 47% | 30 | 3% | 16 | 18% | 21 | 19 |
| TB | 30% | 30 | 6% | 25 | 42% | 32 | 2% | 14 | 26% | 13 | 23 |
| CLE | 32% | 28 | 7% | 24 | 58% | 16 | 3% | 18 | 2% | 30 | 23 |
Again, its important to note this is ONLY Offense, and a SELECT group of analytics-based “important” factors. We will continue this series next week investigating the impact of DCs on the game, but at bare minimum we hoped to help add some context to what determines game outcomes. Use it as you see fit, but we find the BEST coach to impact games between 2.4-2.8 points per game (and v opposite for the worst, meaning 5.6 points can separate 2 even teams between the worst and best coach).