Even though 24 of the last 40 Wildcard games have been won by the lower seed, and the NFL Wildcard weekend is typically strife with upsets, our standard and playoff models are pretty “boring”. Here’s the deal: upsets during the NFL Wildcard Playoff round are quite common, bordering on regular. For some reason our research team wasn’t able to find as much information as one would think on the topic, but citing this (somewhat old) study by FO, we created a new “Playoff Model” using our normal adjustments but changing the base metric from FO/PFF performance metrics to (properly weighted) the 3 variables FO found that actually correlate to NFL Postseason success. With that said you can find the output below:
It should be noted based on expected payouts/EV we don’t find much value at all in traditional betting this weekend, and will stay clear. There are some interesting prop bet opportunities, some we are heavy on, please email us directly if you are interested in seeing these (the logic behind them).