NFL QB vs Coverage Week 17

With all the “QB substitutions” among the teams resting starters/etc. we gave pause to using this model for predictive forecasting. However, given this relatively drastic alteration of what the sportsbooks use to set lines, we think there likely is greater (not lesser) opportunity this week, particularly in QB props using the QB by Coverage Model.

A few updates/changes to note for Week 17:

-Beyond the various QB changes we had to make, given that every team playing in week 17 has a 2020 sample of playing the same team, to hone in on the likeliest coverage a defense will use vs. a QB, we took the average usage between what coverage has deployed in 2020 AND what coverage they used against said team.

-We have admittedly, and just as surprisingly, found MUCH LESS predictive value in the “Blitz Sensitivity” adjustment. We have included it, but we recommend using the first metric, “tot” or “net QB” (if using a comparative prop).

*Note Players Highlighted either HAVE been changed (from starter) and/or you should double check the update if QB1 is changed for the team.

We meant to mention last week, if you request this info in excel/sheet/etc form just let us know and someone will send you a copy to manipulate for your own model(s).

Full model to come later in the week given the Sunday-only games.

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