NFL QB vs. Coverage Week 15 Model

We need to wait for practice injury reports to release the full slate of selections, but below are the match-ups (NOT included in the objective model) to help us identify QBs mismatches. As a reminder the first set of columns indicate how frequently a team uses the respective coverage. The second set is a QB’s positive EPA rate by coverage. The NET QB is a formula of expected QB performance based on his play by coverage and his opponent’s historical usage of each coverage. As noted last week, we added a column showing how frequently an opponent blitzes, and how sensitive a QB’s performance has been vs pressure.

Takeaways:

-There are 4 QBs both sensitive to pressure and that are facing teams that blitz heavily: Hurts, Goff, Minshew and to a lesser degree Newton.
-Although there are 2 other, lets say expected, imbalanced match-ups this week, the most surprising is likely Tua vs Cam. Mainly buoyed by the aforementioned pressure adjustment, the model says Tua will outperform Cam
-We have let to run the regression against pass yards, success rates etc, but we think anecdotally its fair to see HOU v IND as a sneaky OVER play (being one of two > 100 games aggregated between QBs)

Stay tuned for the full model coming soon.

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