By request, we added a few more columns. Mind you nDAVE is our base model using Football Outsiders DVOA, add 3 adjustments for Coach, Injury and Turnover Likelihood. Other columns included are subjective, yet something NOT reflected in the model. For example, net DVOA (or DAVE) gives us how well you expect a team to perform vs. their opponent, but what it doesn’t include is a multiplier if said team happens to perform better vs 11 personnel (relative to 12/21), and their opponent tends to deploy a high amount of 11. The idea is, we are trying to find ways to point at “that’s why they won”, BEFORE the fact.
