Last week, despite multiple surprises at the QB position, we released our QB v Opponent Coverage Model. This model, although not included in our weekly aggregate model (yet), helps predict QB outcomes for the week by stratifying QB success by coverage and comparing it to their opponents likelihood to play x coverage. Below you will find the QB v Opponent Coverage Model for week 13, predicting how well a QB will play based on his coverage success/opponent coverage tendencies.
A couple of quick notes:
- QBs with yellow highlights had data manipulated from years prior to fill in the the lack of volume gap (low volume players had their outcomes averaged among the median QB performance per coverage).
- Numbers are up-to-date as of 12/3/20
- QB Starters are accurate as of the same date
As requested, I included a table version as well if you would like to copy/paste into your own models:
| Team | 0/1 | 2 | MAN2 | 3 | 4 | Player | 0/1 | 2 | MAN2 | 3 | 4 | 0/1 proj | 2 proj | M2 proj | 3 proj | 4 proj | tot | Net QB |
| DET | 43.48% | 12.73% | 6.21% | 30.12% | 7.45% | Matthew Stafford | 48.5 | 57.6 | 78.6 | 43.3 | 47.6 | 13.86 | 2.94 | 3.48 | 16.64 | 11.17 | 48.09 | 3.01 |
| CHI | 28.57% | 5.10% | 4.42% | 38.44% | 23.47% | Mitch Trubisky (19) | 38.4 | 52.5 | 49.0 | 50.6 | 45.7 | 16.70 | 6.68 | 3.04 | 15.24 | 3.41 | 45.07 | -3.01 |
| NO | 35.10% | 10.93% | 17.22% | 17.88% | 18.87% | Taysom Hill (NO C2s so AVG) | 91.7 | 48.0 | 51.0 | 50.0 | 60.0 | 39.34 | 6.97 | 2.24 | 15.88 | 3.85 | 68.29 | 20.62 |
| ATL | 42.91% | 14.53% | 4.39% | 31.76% | 6.42% | Matt Ryan | 34.4 | 65.2 | 45.7 | 62.4 | 50.0 | 12.07 | 7.12 | 7.87 | 11.16 | 9.44 | 47.66 | -20.62 |
| CLE | 20.85% | 2.28% | 3.26% | 36.16% | 37.46% | Baker Mayfield | 48.7 | 50.0 | 83.3 | 47.6 | 57.7 | 19.48 | 7.54 | 2.05 | 13.62 | 7.99 | 50.68 | -4.84 |
| TEN | 40.00% | 15.08% | 2.46% | 28.62% | 13.85% | Ryan Tannehill | 54.1 | 56.3 | 58.3 | 69.1 | 42.9 | 11.28 | 1.28 | 1.90 | 24.98 | 16.07 | 55.51 | 4.84 |
| CIN | 41.98% | 10.24% | 5.46% | 26.28% | 16.04% | Brandon Allen | 43.3 | 20.0 | 33.3 | 46.7 | 27.3 | 17.05 | 0.76 | 1.59 | 18.38 | 3.47 | 41.24 | -9.14 |
| MIA | 39.37% | 3.81% | 4.76% | 39.37% | 12.70% | Tua Tagovailoa | 54.2 | 50.0 | 20.0 | 55.3 | 42.9 | 22.75 | 5.12 | 1.09 | 14.53 | 6.88 | 50.38 | 9.14 |
| JAX | 42.86% | 4.88% | 4.18% | 36.24% | 11.85% | Mike Glennon (17) | 48.1 | 41.7 | 54.5 | 47.2 | 54.2 | 15.60 | 9.54 | 2.98 | 11.44 | 8.14 | 47.68 | -8.28 |
| MIN | 32.42% | 22.87% | 5.46% | 24.23% | 15.02% | Kirk Cousins | 61.4 | 40.0 | 40.0 | 52.0 | 60.6 | 26.31 | 1.95 | 1.67 | 18.84 | 7.18 | 55.96 | 8.28 |
| LV | 27.55% | 19.39% | 7.82% | 26.53% | 18.71% | Derek Carr | 49.5 | 58.3 | 33.3 | 65.2 | 56.7 | 13.48 | 10.45 | 1.91 | 25.01 | 6.10 | 56.94 | 12.89 |
| NYJ | 27.24% | 17.92% | 5.73% | 38.35% | 10.75% | Sam Darnold | 33.7 | 36.7 | 66.7 | 57.4 | 38.5 | 9.28 | 7.12 | 5.22 | 15.23 | 7.20 | 44.05 | -12.89 |
| IND | 22.18% | 21.82% | 3.27% | 28.00% | 24.73% | Philip Rivers | 52.2 | 48.6 | 62.5 | 53.3 | 36.0 | 18.21 | 5.94 | 1.35 | 18.79 | 5.57 | 49.86 | -13.48 |
| HOU | 34.89% | 12.23% | 2.16% | 35.25% | 15.47% | Deshaun Watson | 51.6 | 59.5 | 77.8 | 73.1 | 64.3 | 11.45 | 12.98 | 2.55 | 20.47 | 15.90 | 63.34 | 13.48 |
| LAR | 20.63% | 10.14% | 5.59% | 34.97% | 28.67% | Jared Goff | 56.0 | 42.9 | 40.0 | 60.8 | 51.1 | 24.93 | 3.14 | 2.20 | 17.24 | 7.32 | 54.82 | -4.82 |
| ARI | 44.51% | 7.32% | 5.49% | 28.35% | 14.33% | Kyler Murray | 53.8 | 51.5 | 50.0 | 64.9 | 62.2 | 11.10 | 5.22 | 2.80 | 22.69 | 17.83 | 59.64 | 4.82 |
| NYG | 17.61% | 13.52% | 12.89% | 46.54% | 9.43% | Colt McCoy (2018 3 gs) | 44.0 | 43.0 | 45.0 | 57.0 | 53.0 | 8.58 | 5.51 | 1.50 | 25.88 | 10.04 | 51.51 | -6.33 |
| SEA | 19.50% | 12.81% | 3.34% | 45.40% | 18.94% | Russell Wilson | 56.4 | 69.2 | 42.9 | 58.1 | 63.4 | 9.93 | 9.36 | 5.53 | 27.04 | 5.98 | 57.84 | 6.33 |
| PHI | 43.77% | 6.79% | 3.40% | 30.57% | 15.47% | Carson Wentz | 40.3 | 50.0 | 37.9 | 50.4 | 45.5 | 9.12 | 7.41 | 1.56 | 13.90 | 14.04 | 46.03 | -9.80 |
| GB | 22.63% | 14.81% | 4.12% | 27.57% | 30.86% | Aaron Rodgers | 57.4 | 65.6 | 50.0 | 55.0 | 50.0 | 25.13 | 4.46 | 1.70 | 16.81 | 7.74 | 55.83 | 9.80 |
| NE | 45.28% | 7.87% | 6.69% | 31.89% | 8.27% | Cam Newton | 42.3 | 57.1 | 25.0 | 48.9 | 66.7 | 11.20 | 3.92 | 0.74 | 21.89 | 12.64 | 50.39 | 0.14 |
| LAC | 26.47% | 6.86% | 2.94% | 44.77% | 18.95% | Justin Herbert | 47.8 | 61.5 | 48.1 | 50.0 | 55.6 | 21.64 | 4.84 | 3.22 | 15.94 | 4.60 | 50.25 | -0.14 |
| DEN | 38.44% | 5.78% | 6.80% | 22.79% | 26.19% | Drew Lock | 34.1 | 43.2 | 50.0 | 41.7 | 54.5 | 10.88 | 7.90 | 5.56 | 7.77 | 10.94 | 43.04 | -17.63 |
| KC | 31.90% | 18.28% | 11.11% | 18.64% | 20.07% | Patrick Mahomes | 60.9 | 53.7 | 61.5 | 61.3 | 61.1 | 23.41 | 3.11 | 4.18 | 13.97 | 16.00 | 60.67 | 17.63 |
| WAS | 25.47% | 5.62% | 3.00% | 37.83% | 28.09% | Alex Smith | 43.8 | 42.9 | 30.0 | 63.8 | 54.0 | 13.73 | 6.37 | 1.98 | 20.00 | 8.55 | 50.64 | 0.95 |
| PIT | 31.35% | 14.85% | 6.60% | 31.35% | 15.84% | Ben Roethlisberger | 49.5 | 46.2 | 75.0 | 48.1 | 50.0 | 12.61 | 2.60 | 2.25 | 18.20 | 14.04 | 49.69 | -0.95 |
| BUF | 28.26% | 10.51% | 3.26% | 30.43% | 27.54% | Josh Allen | 55.4 | 64.6 | 100.0 | 58.1 | 51.2 | 18.90 | 6.76 | 1.94 | 14.64 | 14.49 | 56.72 | 9.83 |
| SF | 34.11% | 10.47% | 1.94% | 25.19% | 28.29% | Nick Mullens | 49.1 | 44.4 | 60.0 | 49.0 | 41.7 | 13.88 | 4.67 | 1.96 | 14.91 | 11.48 | 46.89 | -9.83 |
| DAL | 32.38% | 9.25% | 6.05% | 34.52% | 17.79% | Andy Dalton | 38.9 | 25.0 | 75.0 | 48.7 | 75.0 | 16.14 | 2.30 | 1.79 | 15.90 | 10.71 | 46.84 | -1.55 |
| BAL | 41.50% | 9.18% | 2.38% | 32.65% | 14.29% | Lamar Jackson | 50.0 | 44.4 | 0.0 | 55.6 | 50.0 | 16.19 | 4.11 | 0.00 | 19.19 | 8.90 | 48.39 | 1.55 |
Stay tuned for the rest of the week 13 models.