QB v Opponent Coverage Model – Week 13

Last week, despite multiple surprises at the QB position, we released our QB v Opponent Coverage Model. This model, although not included in our weekly aggregate model (yet), helps predict QB outcomes for the week by stratifying QB success by coverage and comparing it to their opponents likelihood to play x coverage. Below you will find the QB v Opponent Coverage Model for week 13, predicting how well a QB will play based on his coverage success/opponent coverage tendencies.

A couple of quick notes:

  1. QBs with yellow highlights had data manipulated from years prior to fill in the the lack of volume gap (low volume players had their outcomes averaged among the median QB performance per coverage).
  2. Numbers are up-to-date as of 12/3/20
  3. QB Starters are accurate as of the same date

As requested, I included a table version as well if you would like to copy/paste into your own models:

Team0/12MAN234Player0/12MAN2340/1 proj2 projM2 proj3 proj4 projtotNet QB
DET43.48%12.73%6.21%30.12%7.45%Matthew Stafford48.557.678.643.347.613.862.943.4816.6411.1748.093.01
CHI28.57%5.10%4.42%38.44%23.47%Mitch Trubisky (19)38.452.549.050.645.716.706.683.0415.243.4145.07-3.01
NO35.10%10.93%17.22%17.88%18.87%Taysom Hill (NO C2s so AVG)91.748.051.050.060.039.346.972.2415.883.8568.2920.62
ATL42.91%14.53%4.39%31.76%6.42%Matt Ryan34.465.245.762.450.012.077.127.8711.169.4447.66-20.62
CLE20.85%2.28%3.26%36.16%37.46%Baker Mayfield48.750.083.347.657.719.487.542.0513.627.9950.68-4.84
TEN40.00%15.08%2.46%28.62%13.85%Ryan Tannehill54.156.358.369.142.911.281.281.9024.9816.0755.514.84
CIN41.98%10.24%5.46%26.28%16.04%Brandon Allen43.320.033.346.727.317.050.761.5918.383.4741.24-9.14
MIA39.37%3.81%4.76%39.37%12.70%Tua Tagovailoa54.250.020.055.342.922.755.121.0914.536.8850.389.14
JAX42.86%4.88%4.18%36.24%11.85%Mike Glennon (17)48.141.754.547.254.215.609.542.9811.448.1447.68-8.28
MIN32.42%22.87%5.46%24.23%15.02%Kirk Cousins61.440.040.052.060.626.311.951.6718.847.1855.968.28
LV27.55%19.39%7.82%26.53%18.71%Derek Carr49.558.333.365.256.713.4810.451.9125.016.1056.9412.89
NYJ27.24%17.92%5.73%38.35%10.75%Sam Darnold33.736.766.757.438.59.287.125.2215.237.2044.05-12.89
IND22.18%21.82%3.27%28.00%24.73%Philip Rivers52.248.662.553.336.018.215.941.3518.795.5749.86-13.48
HOU34.89%12.23%2.16%35.25%15.47%Deshaun Watson51.659.577.873.164.311.4512.982.5520.4715.9063.3413.48
LAR20.63%10.14%5.59%34.97%28.67%Jared Goff56.042.940.060.851.124.933.142.2017.247.3254.82-4.82
ARI44.51%7.32%5.49%28.35%14.33%Kyler Murray53.851.550.064.962.211.105.222.8022.6917.8359.644.82
NYG17.61%13.52%12.89%46.54%9.43%Colt McCoy (2018 3 gs)44.043.045.057.053.08.585.511.5025.8810.0451.51-6.33
SEA19.50%12.81%3.34%45.40%18.94%Russell Wilson56.469.242.958.163.49.939.365.5327.045.9857.846.33
PHI43.77%6.79%3.40%30.57%15.47%Carson Wentz40.350.037.950.445.59.127.411.5613.9014.0446.03-9.80
GB22.63%14.81%4.12%27.57%30.86%Aaron Rodgers57.465.650.055.050.025.134.461.7016.817.7455.839.80
NE45.28%7.87%6.69%31.89%8.27%Cam Newton42.357.125.048.966.711.203.920.7421.8912.6450.390.14
LAC26.47%6.86%2.94%44.77%18.95%Justin Herbert47.861.548.150.055.621.644.843.2215.944.6050.25-0.14
DEN38.44%5.78%6.80%22.79%26.19%Drew Lock34.143.250.041.754.510.887.905.567.7710.9443.04-17.63
KC31.90%18.28%11.11%18.64%20.07%Patrick Mahomes60.953.761.561.361.123.413.114.1813.9716.0060.6717.63
WAS25.47%5.62%3.00%37.83%28.09%Alex Smith43.842.930.063.854.013.736.371.9820.008.5550.640.95
PIT31.35%14.85%6.60%31.35%15.84%Ben Roethlisberger49.546.275.048.150.012.612.602.2518.2014.0449.69-0.95
BUF28.26%10.51%3.26%30.43%27.54%Josh Allen55.464.6100.058.151.218.906.761.9414.6414.4956.729.83
SF34.11%10.47%1.94%25.19%28.29%Nick Mullens49.144.460.049.041.713.884.671.9614.9111.4846.89-9.83
DAL32.38%9.25%6.05%34.52%17.79%Andy Dalton38.925.075.048.775.016.142.301.7915.9010.7146.84-1.55
BAL41.50%9.18%2.38%32.65%14.29%Lamar Jackson50.044.40.055.650.016.194.110.0019.198.9048.391.55

Stay tuned for the rest of the week 13 models.

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