QB vs Opponent Coverage Model

Week 12

It’s been a minute. My apologies as my time at Sports Info Solutions has taken up the lion’s share of my time the past few months, but our models, data and forecasts are the better for it. More to come later, but for now you can find the QB breakdown of positive play rate (% of plays with a SIS positive EPA) by coverage this season relative to the opposing defense (facing in week 12) percentage use of coverage. This hasn’t been included in our main forecasting model, but we have found success, and strong correlation to QB yardage/completion prop bets week-in-and-week-out.

Note the color coating by usage: Green: Top 4 frequency, Light Green 5-8, Red Bottom 4, light Red bottom 5-8.
Thanks again to the SIS Data Hub for the data. A few takeaways for this week:

1. Assuming Lamar Jackson plays, the Steelers play a high rate of the only coverage that (relatively) gives Jackson fits, Cover 2 Man, which may aid an already unexpected lopsided game.

2. 49ers QB Mullens hasn’t shown much, but even less vs Cover 4, which the Rams deploy at a top 4 rate in the league.

3. The Brady vs. Mahomes match-up is interesting for many reasons, but with this context it favors Mahomes heavily. Not only does Tampa Bay rarely play Cover 2 (Mahomes, relative weakness)
but on the flip side, Brady’s “Coverage Achilles Heal” this year has been Cover 2, which the Chiefs use at a top 4 rate in the league.

More “model dumps” to come, stand by.

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