True Target Distribution from 2019

Target Distribution by position isn’t new. However, Game situation has a large affect on targets. Meaning, to have a higher level of predictability, teasing out game situations and looking at the target ratios will help give us a clearer picture of where teams like to distribute targets,

Below you will find what happened last year, when the game was absolutely neutral, compared from team 1 to 32…

Neutral Game Situation Team Target Distribution from 2019

Takeaways from this data:

  1. BAL was in another realm with how much they targeted TE. Their 43% TE share was more than 2x the average teams, and 7 percentage points higher than the 2nd most targeted TE team
  2. GB almost mirrored the NFL average distributing the ball to RB/TE/WR at 21/21/58 (NFL: 21/20/59)
  3. Of the top 5 teams by success rate when targeting RBs, ONLY one team actually targeted the RB below NFL Average: DAL (15% vs NFL avg. 21%)
  4. LAC and SEA both were top 5 success rate teams when targeting TE, YET were below NFL average in how often they were targeted
  5. NYG was the opposite, force feeding their TEs and above average 22%, yet ranking dead last in TE targeted success rate
  6. You would think with Michael Thomas’ insane reception numbers, NO, who were #1 in success rate going to WR, wouldn’t be 11 percentage points BELOW NFL average in quantity of targets to the WR
  7. WAS is a fun case study (see 2020 OC Changes and their Impact on Fantasy Football for another reason I’m kinda a fan of their offense this year). They were Top 10 in success rates to non WR, and 29th in success when targeting WR. Yet, they threw to WR 7 percentage points higher than league average (Bonus: Draft Thaddeus Moss NOW)

*Thanks to Sharp Football Stats for the Data

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