True/Adjusted OL Run Blocking Projections for 2020 Fantasy Football

RB performance is, by in large a function of OL ability. But how much? Football Outsiders tries to capture this with ALY yards. Honing in on information valuable to fantasy owners in 2020 we took it 2 steps further:

1. If ALY yards hone in on short distance yards relative to 10-20 yard, or breakaway gains by a RB, and we are trying to find OLs that help/hurt an RB (i.e. separate the OL variable from the RB), should we not consider the ratio of short distance yards attributed to the OL and longer distance runs attributed to RBs?

2. Although the base ALY we are looking at is for 2019 (which tend to be consistent year to year relative to other stats), we adjusted the rankings based on OL talent added/lost in the off season. Here is how it pans out:

Team	19 ALY rk	Adj. Line Yards	RB Yards	Open Field Yards	Open Field Rank	OL>RB	2020 Delta	Net
NE	9	4.49	3.9	0.49	28	19		19
OAK	6	4.63	4.26	0.67	22	16		16
DEN	11	4.45	4.24	0.61	23	12	2	14
GB	5	4.63	4.47	0.69	20	15	-2	13
DAL	2	4.91	4.68	0.72	18	16	-4	12
NO	1	4.92	4.56	0.8	15	14	-4	10
LAR	19	4.27	3.8	0.44	29	10		10
LAC	13	4.37	4.13	0.68	21	8	2	10
DET	20	4.21	3.94	0.54	25	5	2	7
BAL	3	4.73	4.97	0.95	11	8	-2	6
NYJ	31	3.8	3.29	0.17	32	1	4	5
ATL	24	3.98	3.73	0.52	27	3		3
TB	23	4	3.59	0.55	24	1	2	3
BUF	15	4.32	4.26	0.78	17	2		2
MIA	32	3.17	2.96	0.25	31	-1	2	1
SEA	16	4.32	4.61	0.93	13	-3	4	1
TEN	4	4.65	4.83	1.05	5	1	-2	-1
CHI	29	3.86	3.56	0.39	30	1	-2	-1
MIN	7	4.6	4.67	1.04	6	-1		-1
SF	8	4.53	4.8	1.16	3	-5	4	-1
IND	12	4.41	4.58	0.97	10	-2		-2
CIN	26	3.9	3.95	0.7	19	-7	4	-3
WAS	18	4.28	4.36	0.89	14	-4		-4
CLE	10	4.46	4.85	1.17	2	-8	4	-4
PHI	14	4.34	4.36	0.78	16	2	-8	-6
PIT	30	3.84	3.74	0.52	26	-4	-2	-6
HOU	21	4.13	4.52	0.93	12	-9		-9
ARI	22	4.12	4.61	0.97	9	-13	2	-11
NYG	25	3.96	4.25	0.99	8	-17	4	-13
CAR	17	4.3	4.84	1.26	1	-16	-2	-18
KC	28	3.88	4.15	1.02	7	-21		-21
JAX	27	3.88	4.17	1.09	4	-23		-23

Changes Detailed:

Team	2020 changes
NE
OAK
DEN	They also upgraded their offensive line by signing Graham Glasgow
GB	At offensive tackle, the Packers got a reasonable price in replacing Bryan Bulaga with Rick Wagner on a two-year, $11 million pact.
DAL	One year after returning from Guillain-Barré syndrome, star center Travis Frederick chose to retire.
NO	Cutting three-time Pro Bowler Larry Warford
LAR	Their offensive line is still seriously troubling, and while they re-signed veteran left tackle Andrew Whitworth, the 38-year-old committed 14 penalties last season, up from 12 over his prior two seasons combined. The Rams have two other line starters coming off season-ending knee injuries, and they added only Jamil Demby and seventh-round pick Tremayne Anchrum.
LAC	Offensive tackle Bryan Bulaga arrived on a three-year, $30 million deal AND dealt tackle Russell Okung to Carolina for guard Trai Turner
DET	The five-year, $45 million deal it handed Halapoulivaati Vaitai pays the former Eagles swing tackle like he is an upper-echelon starter. It sure looks reminiscent of the big deal that Detroit handed former starting right tackle Rick Wagner,
BAL	Losing legendary guard Marshal Yanda to retirement. They are an offensive line factory and used third- and fourth-round picks on Tyre Phillips and Ben Bredeson,
NYJ	Both in free agency and in the draft, the Jets threw everything they had at one side of the trenches. After signing tackle George Fant, tackle Greg Van Roten, guard Josh Andrews, and center Conner McGovern, New York went out and drafted Louisville tackle Mekhi Becton 10th overall and Charlotte guard Cameron Clark in the fourth round. If they wanted to, the Jets could field an entirely new starting offensive line and still have a new sixth man left out.
ATL
TB	With a huge hole looming at right tackle, they then managed to protect Brady by using their first-round pick on Tristan Wirfs.
BUF	Bringing back Quinton Spain and signing Daryl Williams, another former Panthers player, to a one-year deal.
MIA	$30 million deal handed to Ereck Flowers seems ill-advised for a player who was nearly out of football a year ago.
SEA	Signing Mike Iupati and signing the likes of B.J. Finney, Brandon Shell, Cedric Ogbuehi and Chance Warmack, before drafting Damien Lewis in the third round.
TEN	It also lost right tackle Jack Conklin, but it replaced the former All-Pro by re-upping Dennis Kelly and using its first-round pick on Isaiah Wilson.
CHI	Offensive tackle Germain Ifedi didn’t live up to expectations as a first-round pick for Seattle, but the Bears were able to sign the oft-penalized lineman to a one-year deal for just over $1 million, which is good value for a solid run-blocker. They will try Ifedi at guard as a replacement for the retired Kyle Long.
MIN
SF	Best possible replacement for the retiring Joe Staley by trading two picks for star offensive tackle Trent Williams. AND The team cut starting guard Mike Person and only replaced him with Jets utility lineman Tom Compton; he’ll compete with Daniel Brunskill for the right guard spot.
IND	Each of their five starting linemen made it through all 16 games last season, which is difficult to count on. They lost utility lineman Joe Haeg to the Bucs, and the only lineman they added to the mix was fifth-round pick Danny Pinter, who was a tight end at Ball State before moving to tackle for his final two years. Le’Raven Clark will be the swing tackle, but the Colts could use a primary backup on the interior.
CIN	Offensive line. Jonah Williams, a first-round pick last year, will return after missing all of his rookie season, but the only other lineman the organization added was Xavier Su’a-Filo
WAS	(Didnt play LY but) disgruntled veterans, tackle Trent Williams
CLE	The Browns signed the top lineman available, Jack Conklin, and used their first-round pick on their left tackle of the future, Jedrick Wills Jr. AND The new brain trust hired Bill Callahan to take over the offensive line, entrusting the weakest part of the 2019 team to arguably the NFL’s best offensive line coach.
PHI	Jason Peters and Halapoulivaati Vaitai left this offseason. Now lost Brandon OG (June)
PIT	Lost center B.J. Finney in free agency
HOU
ARI	Draft Josh Jones in the third round
NYG	No. 4 overall pick on tackle Andrew Thomas, who should start his career at right tackle before replacing Nate Solder on the left side.
CAR	The Turner-for-Okung trade swapped out a younger, better player who is under contract for a longer period of time for Okung, who plays a more valuable position but missed most of 2019 with a pulmonary embolism.
KC
JAX

As you can see, the best way (currently) for us to hone in on OL value vs RB, in hopes to glean valuable information for 2020 Fantasy is to separate the ALY yards from the open yards, make adjustments for OL changes from the off season and rank accordingly.